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Why Tout Wars Is Like the Mafia

limagodfatherLarry Schechter has won Tout Wars five times (Mixed Auction X 3, AL X 2), more than any other living human. He writes:

Why Tout Wars is Like the Mafia

I was recently editing my upcoming book, Winning Fantasy Baseball, and I got to this section:

“In March, 2005, I was invited to join the Tout Wars expert’s league (www.toutwars.com). They traditionally had an AL-only and an NL-only auction league, but for 2005 they added a 12-team mixed auction.

“I had never been in a mixed auction—and I only had one week to prepare—so this was very problematic. But I wasn’t going to pass up the chance to join the renowned Tout Wars, so I said yes.”

When reading this, it occurred to me that being invited to join Tout Wars is such an honor that anything short of my own wedding or the funeral of a parent wouldn’t be a sufficient reason to decline. In other words, when Tout Wars invites you to join, they’re making you an offer you can’t refuse.

That makes Tout Wars like the Mafia.  And, of course, that means Ron Shandler is the godfather.

More about Larry’s book at Winning Fantasy Baseball.

May 15 Tout NL Trade: Jansen for Scutaro

THE WHAT

The following trade has been inserted, effective 05.20:

Todd Zola gets:
Marco Scutaro SF from Phil Hertz

Phil Hertz gets:
Kenley Jansen LAD from Todd Zola

THE WHY

Early this morning Todd Zola sent an email to his Tout NL competitors:

“Page 28 of the So-Called Experts Manual says I am supposed to put Kenley Jansen on the block tonight since he got a high-profile save in impressive fashion.

So, if someone has offense to spare and wants to take a shot this is a harbinger of future Dodger ninth innings, let’s discuss.

Thanks.”

Early this afternoon Todd sent another email:

“I have an offer for Jansen on the table that is acceptable. If anyone wants to see if they can offer something more acceptable, I’ll wait a couple of hours.

 Thanks for the indulgence.”
A few minutes ago, THE WHAT landed.
Zola is chasing Tristan Cockcroft for first place right now, but despite his broad offense he’s in the second division in all categories but BA. He has two closers, Sergio Romo and Bobby Parnell, and saw a chance to leverage Jansen, who is on his bench, for something more. If he becomes the Dodger closer he’ll kick himself, but he helped himself now.
Phil Hertz is down with the rest of us in the pack, looking for any edge we can get. He’s been strong in saves, on Jason Grilli’s broad back, but he had to recognize that adding another closer would be smart. How to pay for it? His team’s strength is lots of AB, Runs and RBI. Scutaro adds in those cats because he plays, but he’s not what anyone would call a big run producer. Phil decided to take a flier on Jansen, in part because he could afford to.
THE WOW
On Draft Day Scutaro cost $13, while Jansen cost $11. Scutaro was paid for his consistency, while Jansen was paid for his ceiling. It seems not much has changed since then.

May 13 FAAB Report, from Mastersball.com, and Ron Shandler on the AL list

Excellent list of the bids, accompanied by interesting commentary about them by the Mastersball gang.

Ron Shandler finds some Oldies but maybe goodies on this week’s AL Waiver Wire, in his USA Today column.

May 10 Tout Mixed Draft Trade: McCaffrey chucks saves, Van Hook embraces them

The Deal

05.13 Gene McCaffrey GBalfour Oak Trade 05.08 @ 15:44
05.13 Gene McCaffrey RDetwiler Was Acquire 05.08 @ 15:44
05.13 Perry Van Hook GBalfour Oak Acquire 05.08 @ 15:44
05.13 Perry Van Hook RDetwiler Was Trade 05.08 @ 15:44

Why?

Gene sent out this note: “I have one closer (Balfour), and I am entertaining the notion of dumping Saves. Any one of you can help me with this decision by offering a hitter or starting pitcher of comparable value. I know that nobody wants to witness the spectacle of my indecision; you are sensitive souls. Thank you for your consideration.”

Perry responded with the best player.

Gene has one point in Saves with one closer. He could have added another, but that would have cost him a decent player and likely points in other categories.

Perry has gotten 43 innings of excellent ERA out of Detwiler, who has allowed a fair number of baserunners and shouldn’t be expected to continue with a >3.00 ERA, so dealing him has an element of sell high about it.

Reality

Gene was able to deal his near-worthless (t0-him) reliever for one of the more beloved young pitchers this year. As a starter Detwiler helps in strikeouts only a little, since he isn’t a K/9 guy, but Gene is in good position to gain with any increase in Ks. Detwiler should also help in Wins, even if he is not a plus in ERA and WHIP. Meanwhile Perry, who is in the middle of the pack in Saves, has a chance to gain 5.5 easy points by adding a third closer (joining Holland and League). Perry’s risk is in strikeouts, where he could quickly lose four or five points. Gene stands to gain a few more points than Perry in the deal, but any points the frontrunner (Van Hook) could prove decisive.

Final Note

Phil Hertz had a piece in USA Today this week about how you can throw draft day prices out the window once the season starts, that once the season starts values change because draft prices sometimes reflect draft conditions rather than player value, and a player’s value on his fantasy team changes in context depending on how the categories in his league shake out. While Phil’s certainly right that it isn’t fair to judge his recent NL Tout trade of Ike Davis ($25) for Jeff Samardzija ($14) based on the prices, figuring out what is going on in the league and how teams did, in this case, on draft day,  makes those prices pertinent. So how much did Balfour and Detwiler cost? Gene took Balfour in the 13th round, while Detwiler lasted until the 19th. In the Tout Mixed Auction Balfour was $11, while Detwiler was a reserve pick. I guess Gene would agree with Phil.

May 6 FAAB reports

The weekly Mastersball summary of all four leagues can be found here.

And Nick Minnix shows his finger-nicking Tout Mixed Auction rationale here.

Perry Van Hook’s Tout Mixed Draft backstory on the big bids can be found here.