We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 15 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.
Tonight’s contest is Week 3 of Phase 4 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ. Going into this Week Charlie Wiegert has a big lead, with Gene McCaffrey, Brian Walton, Seth Trachtman, Ray Murphy and Todd Zola and many others all in the fight.
The leaderboard is here. Only one of the current Phase Top 10 have a ticket to the finals.
Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis (has two!), Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels, Tom Kessenich, Michael Beller and Jeff Boggis have tickets to the finals already.
Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.
THE GODFATHER OF FANTASY SPORTS (And current Phase Leader) CHARLIE WIEGERT
Jose Fernandez ($10,500 at Philadelphia). Paying the price to get pitching points. He appears to be the safest option, with the only thing against him is a “road” start. But it is against the lowly Phillies, and he should be able to continue his dominating performances since his recent activation.
Jorge Soler ($2,500 at Atlanta) I’m looking for a few of Fernandez’s team mates to provide some offensive support and Houston hitters (Altuve & Gattis) to spoil Martin Perez’s 2105 debut. Jorge Soler, who has hit in 6 of 8 games since coming off the dl, becomes a value pick.
Trevor Bauer ($8,700 at Cincinnati) has been solid in four of his last five starts.
Curtis Granderson ($3,000 at St. Louis) has an .845 OPS against righties. Both are relevant bargains.
Jose Fernandez ($10,500 at Philadelphia)
Justin Upton ($2,700 vs Colorado)
James Shields ($9,200 vs. Colorado)
Adeiny Hechavarria ($2,300 at Philadelphia)
Lance Lynn ($9,300 vs. NY Mets)
Chris Carter ($3,000 vs. Texas)
Trevor Bauer ($8,700 at Cincinnati) He’s cheap, and he’s up against a team that’s bad right now. I could tell you that the Reds are in the bottom fifth of the league over the last thirty days, and that Bauer is facing a National League lineup and has really cut down the walks in his last three starts — 17 strikeouts against two walks in 21.1 innings — but that’s not why I like Bauer most. I like him most because I think he’s a good pitcher and he’ll cost me $1-2k less than the other good pitchers.
Prince Fielder ($3,400 at Houston) This is just part of my mini-stack today: Fielder and Rougned Odor both are facing a righty with home run problems in a hot park with the wind blowing out. I’ll even take righty Adrian Beltre in that situation, and since it’s the hottest game on the schedule, Carlos Correa against a lefty coming back from injury the other way. This game should produce runs.
Julio Teheran ($8200 vs. Chicago Cubs) Teheran is a disappointment this season because of his 4.56 ERA, but hidden in there is a bout of home dominance. He has a 2.04 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 2.9 K:BB ratio in 53 home IP. He needs to make sure Anthony Rizzo doesn’t beat him. Lefties have been a big issue this year (.859 OPS).
Gerardo Parra ($3,400 vs. Pittsburgh) He’s been a hot DFS pick of late and he should be again today as he is just smashing righties this year with a .313/.345/.498 line. He doesn’t usually do much vs. lefties, but his .829 OPS in 50 PA vs. them this year might even protect us for a PA against a lefty reliever late in the game, but even if he is pulled late or this small sample of good work vs. lefties isn’t skills growth, he’s still worth his price tag.
STEVE MOYER’S INSIDE EDGE
Kyle Hendricks ($7,300 at Atlanta) Inside Edge liked Hendricks last week and it likes him again this week. He’s been fantastic his last three starts, so hopefully that cheapo FanDuel salary doesn’t know something we don’t.
John Jaso ($3000 at Toronto) Rumors of his demise were premature. Instead he’s primed to become baseball’s next .400 hitter. Just kidding. But Inside Edge says his red-hotness continues tonight against the Jays’ Drew Hutchison.
Masahiro Tanaka ($9,700 vs Seattle) I considered Sonny Gray, but the Twins are mid-pack in K% and wRC+, so not a huge boost there. The Mariners have the fourth highest K% against righties along with the seventh lowest wOBA and wRC+. I was too concerned over a potential short outing for Tanaka last time out, and he dazzled. I’ll take the savings (albeit slight) from Gray and Jose Fernandez to plug in Tanaka.
Jose Altuve ($4,300 vs Texas) Since returning from his brief hamstring injury, Altuve is hitting .309 with 17 runs, 3 HRs, 10 RBI and eight SBs. He’s back to being Altuve. The Astros are expected to score plenty against Martin Perez tonight, and Altuve has always hit lefties much better than righties. His price isn’t too restrictive either, which is a bonus.
Jorge De La Rosa ($6,600 at San Diego) Coors to Petco – good, Facing a team with a high whiff rate against southpaws – good. Salary of $6600 – priceless.
Lance Lynn ($9,300 vs. NY Mets) He’s particularly strong at home, and the Mets can’t hit anywhere. Biggest risk is probably that Syndegaard matches zeroes with him, but this is still a strong play in my book.
Xander Bogaerts ($3000 at Los Angeles Angels) He’s been hot lately, although that hasn’t translated into power yet. I want to see where he is in the linuep tonight (he’s been 3rd lately, but now Pedroia is back), but facing LHP CJ Wilson makes him a nice play at this price.
Julio Teheran ($8200 vs. Chicago Cubs) has been the biggest disappointment of my NL Tout squad in the first half, with just six wins in 18 starts and a 4.56 ERA. However, the Braves starter is showing signs of life, having allowed just three earned runs in 14 July innings. Teheran draws the Cubs at home to start the second half Friday night. I am staying with my man and using my savings on hitting!
Miguel Sano ($2600 at Oakland) Some of the prospect luster wore off the Minnesota third baseman while he sat out last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. In the 11 games since the 22-year-old reached the bigs, however, he has reminded us all of his immense potential. Sano brings a .375 average, two home runs and eight RBI into Oakland to face Sonny Gray.
Jose Fernandez ($10,500 at Philadelphia) Even if Clayton Kershaw were pitching tonight Fernandez would still be the better pick because he’s facing both an inferior offense (the Phlailin’ Phils) and an inferior opposing starting pitcher (Adam Morgan). I worry a bit whether the Stanton-less, Gordon-less Marlins’ lineup will cobble together enough runs to get Fernandez the 4 vital points that go with a Win. However, with so many aces pitching the first game after the All-Star break, this still feels like the most appealing match-up.
Bryce Harper ($5,000 vs Los Angeles Dodgers) It’s hard to consider this an arbitrage opportunity at this price. Still, the price was set assuming that Harper would be facing Clayton Kershaw; instead, he gets to face Mike Bolsinger (and he’s still cheaper than Adam Morgan!). Of course, since I’m shelling out for Fernandez, Harper, and Mike Trout, the rest of my hitting lineup looks like a collection of has-beens and never-wases. We’ll see what happens – it should be an interesting evening of baseball regardless of how many grand slams Kyle Schwarber hits.
Jose Fernandez ($10,500 at Philadelphia) My strategy that has worked best for me in this contest is to draft an elite pitcher and then look for hitter values to stay within the salary cap. Kershaw was originally scheduled to pitch tonight, but has traded places with Mike Bolsinger in the Dodgers rotation. I like both Sonny Gray ($9,900) and Jose Fernandez ($10,500) tonight, but from a win probability and higher strikeout ceiling, I am going to spend the extra $600 on Jose Fernandez tonight. If you further analyze the pitcher versus hitter matchup, current Philadelphia Phillies hitters are batting only .162 in their last 37 AB’s against Jose Fernandez. The number is slightly higher for Gray versus Minnesota hitters at .182.
Mike Trout ($5,400 vs. Boston) and Bryce Harper ($5,000 vs. LA Dodgers) Each week I have wanted to play either Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, only to have my player either hit a home run the following night or the player that I did not select hit a home run. Well, I am imposing a brand new hitter strategy tonight and it is my “build a team around Trout and Harper” strategy. This way, I feel I have at least doubled my odds of success tonight and I take the guessing out of the equation. I was going to not roster Harper tonight based on his matchup originally against Clayton Kershaw, but with Mike Bolsinger now starting tonight, Bryce Harper is back in the lineup for tonight! By rostering the law firm of Fernandez, Harper, and Trout, this leaves me with an average salary of $2,350 on my remaining 6 hitters.