Tout Table: Correcting an Inadvertent Drop

This week, the Touts address an administrative conundrum:

How should it be handled when someone inadvertently drops a player?

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, @jeffwzimmerman): As long the person immediately admits the issues, they should be added back. Weird stuff happens. If the league or commish is going to be an ass about it, make sure they state their hardline take in the league rules. At least everyone knows the rules Nazi will be watching.

Alex Chamberlain (Rotofraphs, @DolphHauldhagen): As a dingus who has done this more than once before (big thumbs, small phone screen, cut me some slack!), I think as long as you announce it to the league and/or commissioner immediately after the transaction occurs, there shouldn’t be an issue. If you don’t notice that you accidentally dropped someone and then make a fuss over it after another owner claims him (which, if you have FAAB or even an 48-hour waiver claim buffer, is PLENTY of time to notice), then that’s on you. Technology is meant to facilitate our fantasy baseball experience but sometimes it can backfire.

AJ Mass (ESPN, @AJMass): I used to work at a casino in the poker room and we always operated under the concepts of “immediate reporting” and “significant subsequent action.” That same standard should be applied here. If a fantasy manager inadvertently drops a player and immediately reports the mistake to the commissioner (or other appropriate authority), he should be returned. Mistakes happen. If the report comes a few hours later, he should also be returned, so long as there hasn’t been anything significant to happen in the interim (news that said player has been promoted from Triple-A or will become the closer, etc.). Easy peasy.

Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): Here is the link to my write up about the poll, and the question.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): In the average league an accidental drop should be reversed as long as the accident is brought to the league’s attention immediately after it occurs. Days or even hours later is too long not to notice the mistake and at that point the released player is now fair game.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): Typically, I’ll undo the move so long as I’m informed immediately of the mistake. Same for accidental trades. If there’s a delay that makes it seem as if the owner is maybe pulling a fast one, I might refuse. I’ll also add language to our constitution when necessary to govern these sorts of scenarios. If you care enough about your league to make a fuss about undoing an accidental add/drop, then you should have a constitution.

Anthony Perri (Fantistics, @Anthony_Perri): It all depends on the circumstance. If it’s brought to the attention of the league commissioner within the first few minutes, there should be no question. However there are special circumstances that should be taken into consideration, including the website commissioner product.. For instance, one website commissioner product that I’m in, has a setup that separates the difference between a drop and a reserve as “Res” and “Rel” (when setting the lineup). I dropped Mike Trout one year and wasn’t aware until someone pointed it out to me, my league mates were sympathetic and understood that it was a clear mistake.

Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): If the fantasy owner immediately gives the league notice, the player should be awarded back by the commissioner. Certainly, if the mistake is alerted to within the hour – there should be no issue to reverse the transaction. I think that reversing an inadvertent drop should also be allowed for the overnight right after a waiver period before lineups come out the next day. The exception would be if some “news” – good or bad – has come out about any player involved. The main idea is that if it can be determined that it was accidental, an owner should not be penalized – whether it be in a big money league or just in a social league. As an example of a correction rule – In one of my leagues, we instituted a “Four Hour” rule for lineups (which all lock at the start of the scoring period). If you inadvertently set a wrong lineup, you can alert the commissioner to make a change on your behalf up to 4 hours thereafter.

Bret Sayre (Baseball Prospectus, @BretSayreBP): Your league commissioner should have a period of time during which they’ll reverse inadvertent drops (I would recommend an hour or two), during which the owner can raise the issue if it was indeed inadvertent. In the end, we’re supposed to be having fun here. That said, if the player has any playing time or any news comes out during the period between the drop and the notification that it was inadvertent, they’re out of luck.

Seth Trachtman (Rotoworld, @sethroto): As a commissioner, I prefer to give the owner a mulligan if I catch the drop before someone else picks up the player. The same goes for an accidental pickup, like picking up the wrong Rougned Odor (cough, cough). However, if another owner picks up the player before the accidental drop is identified and the accident impacts multiple owners, usually at that point I’d let the moves stand. I qualify all of this by saying I think each unique situation should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. Honest mistakes do happen, and decisions should be made with that in mind.

Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): As long as there is quick, near immediate acknowledgment of the erroneous drop, it should be corrected.

Michael Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): As the Chief Justice of Fantasy Judgment, I have had this scenario submitted to me for resolution in the past. I believe a GM who inadvertently drops a player and immediately recognized the error by alerting the commissioner and entire league should be allowed to have the player placed back on their roster. Mistakes happen and people click the wrong buttons at times, so as long as the error is acknowledged right away with valid justification then it is fine to revert them back onto the roster. The exception to this is if there is breaking news about that player which would lead one to believe it was not an error, but rather seller’s remorse. The commissioner will have to use his/her discretion in evaluating those circumstances and decide whether it is more likely a mistake or regret.

Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): If the problem is brought up in a timely manner, the move should be reversed – PLUS – the commissioner/SWAT should inform the league what happened so there is no misunderstanding later. This latter point is often disregarded, but the best leagues have open communications.

Jason Collette (Rotowire, @jasoncollette): If the issue is raised within 30 minutes of the error, make the change. If the person didn’t realize the move until later that day or the next day, too much could have happened in that time to reverse it. Every site gives you a confirmation step before you do something, so two-click accidents are tough to make.

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, @jeffwzimmerman): Per Collette Another major industry league is hosted on a website which doesn’t have this safeguard. I know because I “tested” it out this year.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy): This actually just happened to me as I ‘fat-thumbed” my way into dropping Domingo Santana while using a site’s app. I reached out to the commish who said he understood and told everyone in the league to not put in any waiver claims. If the person who made the mistake reaches out to the commish immediately, then the commish should be able to simply reverse the transaction. Unfortunately, some websites do not allow the commish to override a transaction which means it drags out and, like in my case, when an owner who “forgot” to withdraw his waiver claim gets the player, it then becomes a headache to make a series of transactions to right one simple wrong.

Michael Beller (Sports Illustrated, @MBeller): This one is pretty simple. So long as the offending owner addresses it in a timely manner, the move should be reversed. This is fantasy baseball, and while we all want to win, we’re mainly here to have fun. It’s no fun being ruled over with an iron fist.

Greg Ambrosius (NFBC, @GregAmbrosius): In the NFBC and NFFC we realize that mistakes on cuts can happen, especially with so many people doing transactions from their phones. If contacted immediately, we do allow the cut player to be replaced and we tell the league members what just happened. The FAAB pickup can NEVER be altered, whether that involves the price spent or the player that was picked up. But the cut is easier to replace and is allowed in high-stakes for the fairness of the league and the fairness of the overall contest. Having a superstar in one league’s FAAB pool due to a human error doesn’t help the integrity of the overall contest. Correct the error and keep that league whole. A few years ago in football some teams owned both Adrian Petersons or both Steve Smiths and there were some owners who cut the wrong Adrian Peterson or the wrong Steve Smith. Simple correction and one that just uses common sense to correct.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): As others have stated the process should be explicitly written in the league’s Constitution. Admittedly, Tout Wars fails in this regard, at least for now. I’m sure we’ll formalize our policy which is to indeed reverse moves if notified right away. As a few have shared, not all sites are as user-friendly as others and we’re in an era where many manage teams over their phone. As a desktop guy, i often need to remember this is the case. That said, the overriding approach used in Tout Wars is each participant is ultimately responsible for his/her team so if the mistake isn’t caught immediately, it may not be reversed. It then becomes incumbent open the fantasy manager to “check their work”, especially if they’re playing one one of the more error-prone platforms.

Tim McCullough (Baseball Prospectus, @TimsTenz): As much as we all compete with one another and hope for our opponents to “give up” on a player and put him on waivers, this is supposed to be a friendly game. If a mistake is made and reported in a timely manner to the commissioner, then a mistaken drop should be reversed. Timely is where the sticking point is but a few hours shouldn’t be a big deal.

Dr. Roto (Scout Fantasy, @DrRoto): If the person catches the mistake quickly enough I am always open to reversing the move. No sense punishing someone for a minor error. If it gets caught after 2-3 days, that becomes more or a case by case issue.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I’m all for returning the inadvertently waived player if the Commish is notified immediately. The issue is what “immediately” means. I’ve seen references to “half an hour” “quickly enough,” “before anyone else picks the player up,” etc. I hate to be a stickler for “da rules,” but it’s important that there BE a rule here so there’s no post-move bickering about how soon was soon enough. Where the waste solids hit the A/C is when the player is picked up by someone else. Personally, I think the move should be final and irrevocable after the transactions deadline has passed.

Grey Albright (RazzBall, @razzball): I once drove my wife to the airport but dropped her off at the mall by accident. We’re still happily married

Rudy Gamble (Razzball, @RudyGamble): There are two scenarios to think through IMO. If we are talking about an average to mediocre player, as long as the owner recognized the mistake before another owner picks him up, I am okay with giving him back to the erring owner. If we are talking a top player, I would rather give him back to the original owner than potentially decide a league’s fate because one guy was on his phone when dufus owner dropped Trevor Bauer.

Tim McLeod (PattonandCo, @TimothyLMc): Fess up right away, and simply fix the error.

Ian Kahn (Rotowire, @IanKahn4): In all of theses cases it seems that common sense should prevail. If a player were to drop a top player by a slip of the finger, and not notice till the next day, I would always try to rectify the situation. This is a fun game. It’s important to keep it that way.

Rob Leibowitz (Rotoheaven, @rob_leibowitz): I’m with the majority. As long as the error occurs before anyone picks up the player again, I will correct it. Playing too cutthroat is a way to destroy a league. Correcting mistakes and keeping the game fun and non confrontational is more important in the long run. Also I consider it more of a commissioner’s discretion situation which doesn’t need to be explicitly stated in the rules. The commish should always have the ability to make decisions that are in the bests interest of the league.

Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): What if a league has a N/A spot for minor leaguers. Someone drops Mallex Smith. Then, they notice he was sent to the minors. Then, the ask for the drop to be changed cause it was a mistake. Was it a mistake, or did the person just not pay attention and note that Smith was sent to the minors? How could we then know if the person actually made a mistake by hitting the wrong button, or, perhaps they just didn’t do their homework and didn’t notice that Smith had been demoted?

Ryan Hallam (Fighting Chance Fantasy, @FightingChance): As long as the error is brought up right away, I definitely think the person who made the drop should be able to get the player back. Are we really that serious that we are trying to take advantage of someone’s error to win? Everyone is human, everyone makes mistakes, as long as it isn’t hours later, put the player back on their roster.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): Depends on the game. Friend leagues ( like Tout, FSTA, Labr), no harm, no Foul and if caught before any other moves get affected, change it back. But in bigger money leagues ( like NFBC, High $ leagues, etc.), where there are rules are established , rules have to be followed or the games operator has to maintain the integrity of the games.

Lenny Melnick (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @LennyMelnick): Common Sense should prevail

Michael Rathburn (Rotowire, @FantasyRath): As long as the mistake was recognized within timely fashion, (24 hours) the move should be ok to reverse.

Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner): Even the best players occasionally make a mistake. As the commissioner in LABR, I always give the owner the benefit of the doubt if the error is identified promptly. No one wants to win or lose a league on a technicality.

Mike Sheets (ESPN, @MikeASheets): I’m with the consensus here. If it’s a mistake and the owner alerts the commish of the mistake within a reasonable amount of time, it should be reversed. I’ve made this mistake before, and I’ve known other experienced players who have made this mistake, too. Fix it and move on.

Tristan H. Cockcroft (ESPN, @SultanofStat): Echoing a lot of what’s been said: so long as the manager in question reports the error to the commissioner promptly, the player should be returned to that team. As to what “promptly” means, it’s almost always easy to tell when it was an honest mistake versus regretting the drop. As to Ray’s follow-up question, moving players into IL or N/A spots on mobile can often trip some people up, myself included, so I’m understanding with that. But specifically with the Mallex Smith example, it’d come down to what time the drop was made. If it was at noon ET on Tuesday and I get that e-mail at 6 p.m., the drop needs to stand because Smith’s demotion wasn’t formally announced until just after 5. And, yes, I do occasionally get managers wanting to reclaim a player whose status changed after the drop — that shouldn’t be allowed.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Not much to add. Even in cutthroat leagues, if the owner reports things right away, then correcting the error is fine. A couple of notes, I might still charge for the move or impose a fine, since it will be extra work to correct. Also I might come out differently if the same owner did this more than once or (or twice).

Justin Mason (Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Fangraphs, Fantasy Alarm, @JustinMasonFWFB): I think this depends on the league you are playing in. If this is a fun league with friends, then you take it back. If there is serious money involved, then you don’t.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): I included a rule in my league’s constitution that if the owner who made the mistake notifies me within 10 minutes of the error, I would reverse it.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): I think it depends on how competitive the league is/how understanding other owners are. I generally try to put myself in other owner’s shoes and give them the same benefit of the doubt I’d want to be shown if I were the owner in question. I think the timeliness of notification and common sense should be the 2 overriding criteria in such cases. A companion problem that just came up in a home league (AL-only) I play in that has $100 FAAB – the other owner won some marginal player with a bid of $55, then claimed he’d meant to bid only $5 on the player in question but had fat-fingered his entry. After determining that no other owner had bid more than $5 the Commissioner let him keep the player for $5, which seemed fair to all of us.

Ray Murphy (BaseballHQ, @RayHQ): If identified immediately, then I think it’s fine to roll back an inadvertent drop. They are generally easy to correct with no consequence to other players. Other categories of errors, like fat-fingered bids, are obviously tougher to undo. But when it’s a clear error identified in a timely fashion, I’m a benevolent commissioner.

Adam Ronis (Scout Fantasy, @AdamRonis): As long as the mistake is made publicly on the message board or in an email to the league immediately, it can be fixed. Unfortunately, in a league with significant money on the line this might not be good enough. As always, address this mishap now and come up with a rule so there’s no controversy in the future.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): If a league manager makes a mistake of dropping a player, I have no problem adding them back to their roster. But the league manager must contact the commish immediately and inform him of the mistake. It would also help if the league manager emails the league to explain the mistake. We’ve all done this.

Nando Di Fino (The Athletic, @nandodifino): I’d like to link to Ray’s link. If I can’t, I’ll say that I don’t see the side of the argument where a fantasy player shouldn’t get the dropped player back. This game was designed to be very personal — calling in and faxing moves to the commissioner, scoring by hand, etc. An inadvertent drop would never happen in its original iteration. But on a cell phone, with changing UI… I could see where an inadvertent finger move could lead to a drop instead of an IL move, or a wrong player being put into the drop box. So I’m for the return of the player. But you need a window. Four hours max.

Vlad Sedler (Fantasy Guru Elite, @rotogut): It should depend on the type of league. In friends and family league, it should be forgiven if the person clearly states it was done in error and he/she is not a repeat offender. In all other types, the rules of that league or site takes precedence.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Reading through the replies, I haven’t changed my mind, an inadvertent drop should be returned, however as someone who as been on the administrative side of as many league as just about anyone, it isn’t cut and dried. I’ve always felt the same action should have the same repercussions, regardless of the outcome. I also want as many rules to be black and white as possible, especially in a league like Tout Wars where we are governing 81 teams in six different leagues with three different SWATs handling the work. The less subjectivity, the better. The obvious approach is to set a hard deadline for reporting a mistake. The problem is,my colleagues are all over the place in this regard, though it is league contextual. Having a deadline to report the error puts the onus on the person to check their work after it’s entered. This is perfect since ultimately, especially in a league like Tout Wars, we all need to be responsible and accountable for our own teams. RARELY, there may be a move reports disingenuously. In the short window, news broke, affecting the decision. Or, the individual changed their mind from what they would have done. I’d like to think we don’t have any of this in Tout Wars. However, even if we did, the incredibly rare instance someone took advantage is significantly trumped by the occasional correcting of an accidental drop.

Tout Wars Free Agency Bidding Recap – Sunday, May 5

Following is our weekly report, summarizing the top free agent bids in each of the five Tout Wars leagues, with links to the detailed bidding action following our 8 p.m. ET deadline each Sunday evening. All prices are on a $1000 base.

After you scan the detail below, please join our live chat, starting at 9 p.m. ET Sunday evening, to discuss these results with Todd Zola of Mastersball and other Touts.

American League

What American League lacked in quantity, with just nine free agents added this week, they made up for in quality. New Rays first baseman Nate Lowe caused Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus to make a directory assistance call for $411. Next-closest was $373.

Cool name of the week (or season), Skye Bolt of Oakland, joined the roster of Nando DiFino of The Athletic for $122. The 25-year old outfield prospect was off to a nice start at Triple-A Las Vegas, though his route to playing time with the A’s is unclear.

Review all 5/5 AL bids here

National League

As you can imagine, one of the Reds’ call-ups this week was already owned, Nick Senzel. On the other hand, despite the highest OPS in Triple-A, utilityman Josh VanMeter did not register on any top prospect lists. That didn’t matter, as bidding was strong, despite an unclear playing time situation. My aggressive $57 bid was obliterated by Todd Zola’s winning offer of $273. That is the last time I go on his Sunday afternoon SiriusXM show!

Outfielder Mike Gerber is the next in line in the seemingly endless outfield trials in San Francisco. The former Tiger drew multiple offers, with the top being $111 by Andy Behrens.

With long memories, the NL Touts avoided well-traveled Mets starter Jason Vargas during April, but after the 36-year old lefty strung three strong starts together, Scott Wilderman of onRoto jumped in for $68.

Click on the link below to see the other dozen winning bids as well as the also-rans, too.

Review all 5/5 NL bids here

Mixed Auction

Of the 23 players to be purchased this week in Mixed Auction, Lowe drew the most FAAB by a significant amount, going to Derek Van Riper of Rotowire and The Athletic for $247. The next-closest offer was a more conservative $139.

The only other player drawing a bid for more than $37 is Derek Dietrich of Cincinnati, acquired by Brent Hershey of BaseballHQ for $89. Amazingly, the former Marlin had to come to camp on a minor league deal but his early-season power display is forcing his way into the regular playing rotation for the last-place Reds.

Review all 5/5 Mixed Auction bids here

Mixed Draft

Across the 17 players purchased with FAAB this week in Mixed Draft, spending was muted. Top money was $77 for presumed Baltimore closer Mychal Givens, who received no save opportunities until April 24, but has converted three since. Anthony Perri is Givens’ new owner.

$65 put Lou Trivino of Oakland on the roster of D.J. Short. The right-handed reliever is back after missing time with a thumb injury and has been very dependable overall, with 12 of 13 scoreless appearances this season. With A’s closer Blake Treinen dealing with elbow discomfort, Trivino’s role could expand.

Likely, Tim McLeod has been watching top Astros prospect Yordan Alvarez rake in Triple-A and decided not to wait, paying $51 and a week of likely empty stats for the right to stash the outfielder until he is called up.

Lowe fetched $63 from Rudy Gamble of Razzball.  

Review all 5/5 Mixed Draft bids here

Head to Head

Finally! We find a league in which new Reds outfielder-infielder Nick Senzel was unowned. That changed with Ralph Lifshitz’ winning $420 offer, the highest amount paid for any free agent across the five leagues this week. If one is going to spend big, could there be a better investment?

Jack Ciely dropped an even $300 on two players. Lowe led the way at $174, joined by new Angels starter Griffin Canning at $126. The latter, a 22-year old right-hander, has reached the majors inside of two years after being drafted. Though Canning yielded three home runs in his MLB debut, his future is bright.

Lifshitz also added assumed new Rangers closer Shawn Kelley for $77. The door seems wide open after Jose Leclerc was removed from Texas’ ninth-inning role and Kelley received and converted the first opportunity.

In all, 15 players were purchased this week, with full bidding details viewable via the link below.

Review all 5/5 Head to Head bids here

Tout Daily Picks: Bauer Power

Tuesday is the first week of the second Tout Daily period. The slates are wiped clean. Here are some of the picks for the Touts on a rain-shortened schedule.

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports)

Pitcher: Trevor Bauer – Sometimes it’s worth spending up to go with the best. Facing one of the weakest lineups, who strike out a lot, this is one of those times!

Hitter: Kris Davis – Not a lot of $ left having invested in pitching, this is a good spot for Davis to come back to life. Porcello has been giving up his share on long balls, I hope Davis gets his long ball swing swing back tonight!

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1)

Pitcher: Zach Grienke – Glenn Colton will hemmorage as I take the pitcher versus his beloved Yankees. In tournaments, you have to be contrarian sometimes and I look for players that have consistency. On the pitching side, Zach Grienke is one of the better players there. He has gotten a little sharper in each of the last three outings and his command has been right there being able to pinpoint location plus changes speeds. He won’t blow away any of these Yankee hitters, but he should put up 15-20 points. If it is any consolation, my other pitcher is Luis Castillo versus my favorite team, the Mets.

Hitter: Rowdy Tellez – Although it was three years ago when I saw him in person hit a 450 homer in the Arizona Fall League, I have been following him since. Glad to see Morales moved to open up a spot for him and see him start to shine hitting .305 with 5 HRs. Tonight, he faces 22 year-old sensation who has been dominating AAA. The lefty Tellez is priced right for him to hit a mistake pitch from the young gun and take it out of the yard. Looking for 2 for 5 with a bomb and a Rowdy night!

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50)

Pitcher: Trevor Bauer – Sure he’s expensive, but he seems the closest to a sure thing. Didn’t I say that about deGrom three weeks ago.

Hitter: Juan Soto –

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)

Pitcher: Vince Velasquez – Along with the Trevor Bauer versus Miami matchup, Vince Velasquez versus Detroit for $8700. Detroit averages less than 4 runs per game and Velasquez has 14 Ks in his last 10.2 IP with only 2 runs allowed

Hitter: Joey Votto – Tough not to stack the Reds versus Jason Vargas and his 7.20 ERA. Joey Votto has a hit on 4 straight games and I’m not afraid of this lefty vs lefty matchup.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Pitcher: Trevor Bauer – Pricing has been tight this season, tough to afford two aces but after a rough first Period, going back to what’s worked for me – stud pitching and piecemeal bats.

Hitter: Curt Casali – Batting 5th against Vargas, not a bad salary-saver, a cheap part of a Reds stack, good part of the order with the platoon edge on a lesser hurler.

Rob Leibowitz (Rotoheaven, @rob_leibowitz)

Pitcher: Trevor Bauer – I’m on the Bauer train as well. Matchup/quality of starter/strikeout rates too god to resist.

Hitter: Jose Ramirez – Doubling up on Cleveland players – starting to show signs of life. Good matchup against Alcantara dn not likely to get a player of his talents at $4,300 for much longer.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)

Pitcher: Trevor Bauer – Against Miami? Make him fit!

Hitter: Yasiel Puig – If you’re using Bauer, you need to find some salary relief. Might as well give this bat-licking, bat-flipping idiot a shot against Jason Vargas, one of the absolute worst southpaws in the game right now. I might even think about a Reds stack with him, Suarez and Casali tonight!

Tout Table: What to Expect from Vlad Jr.

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This week’s question is straightforward:

Vlad Guerrero Jr.: Over/under .300? Over/under 20 HR?

Here are the responses:

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): I assume the prompt is setting an over/under on the number of home runs Guerrero hits off the Athletics in his first major league series. I’m usually the neighborhood naysayer when it comes to prospect hype, but I have to imagine 19 or fewer home runs is something like a 20th percentile outcome (basically all major injury scenarios). As for the batting average, sure, it’s reasonable to doubt an unestablished player’s ability to hit .300 – especially in this day and age of supercharged relievers. Still, I’ll happily bet the over. Projection systems estimate around a .307 average. I’ll call out a .315. A better question: Vladito OPS o/u 1.000?

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): He’ll hit well over .400 and hit at least 74 home runs while finding a cure for cancer, fixing the US immigration system, and bringing peace to the Middle East between innings. We are not worthy to set eyes on him.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): I’m placing Vlad at .290 as .300 for a rookie will be tough as pitchers adjust. 20 plus HRs should be easy. I’ll predict 27

Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): Over and over. It is easy for a prospect guy to get geeked up for an MLB intruduction, but the consistency Vlad Jr. has demonstrated suggests to me it can and will continue in the majors.

Perry Van Hook (Mastersball): I will take the over on Vladito’s batting average – that is his best tool. But for the first year, I will take the under on 20 home runs. He is more of a line drive hitter and will have some adjustments to make against major league pitchers.

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1): Here it comes. Everyone saying that Vlad is the second coming. He is talent-wise, but players who get hurt tend to get hurt again. No one roots for injury. Just saying that someone who gains weight even as muscle and then pulls one of those muscles, will tend to get hurt again. That said, if healthy, he will eclipse 20 home runs easily. A .300 batting average will be difficult as the video, scouting and guile of major league pitchers could make it tough over a whole season. I don’t own him on any teams as the starting price was too high for someone who got hurt and has not played in the majors.

Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): Though I’m convinced that long-term Vlad’s hit + power output is what is going to eventually catapult him into the Top-player-in-the-game conversation, I’d still take the Under on a .300 BA in his rookie year. I’d still consider him a BA asset in 2019 — he’s just hits the ball so hard — but feel that .280-.290 will be where he ends up 2019. Home runs, though? He should easily eclipse 20 over the next five months.

Michael Rathburn (Rotowire, @FantasyRath): I will take the over on both. I’m willing to bet on the skills he has displayed in the minors.

Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): Expecting a rookie, no matter how immensely talented, to go .300/20 is asking an awful lot. I guess I’ll be Debbie Downer, but this game is filled with players who struggled at the start of their careers – even the great Mike Trout had a .672 OPS his first season – so there is no guarantee anyone will star in their first season, even if they become a tremendous hitter in the long run. I’ll take the under on the average and the over on the homers.

Doug Anderson (Fantrax, @rotodaddy): I’ll go over on both. Have you looked at pitching this year? In the American League? I’ll bet the over on Vlad Sr. and Vlad Jr. Jr. as well.

Andrea LaMont (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @RotoLady): I go over on HR – Under on AVG My Projections for 2019 = 27 HR with .277 AVG

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I’m more confident with over on average, and that’s without the ” he could get hurt and be over” angle. My numbers say 22 HR, so I guess I’ll take the over, but not warm and fuzzy about it.

Scott Engel (Rotoballer, @scotteTheKing): I am going with the under on both. Baseball is a constant game of adjustments, and a tougher one for rookies. I say he hits .275 with 25 homera

Jon Hegglund (Baseball Prospectus, @JonHegglund): I’ll be boring and say over on both. I think Vlad can choose his own adventure and hit .320 with 20ish homers or sell out a bit and hit .290 with 30ish homers. Have you all seen what the ball is doing this year?

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Over .300, but under 20 homers. He’s been a consistent way over .300 hitter in the minors, but power wasn’t impressive and he’s already missed 15% 0f the season.

Glenn COlton (Fantasy Alarm, @GlennColton1): under and under. Love the talent BUT injury risk is real. If he is hurting at all, they are going to be SUPER careful. Could easily see him getting only 300-350 PA. Overvalued in re-draft leagues

Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella): over on the home runs, thanks to the rabbit ball they’re using again this year. under on the batting average, just because it’s difficult for almost anyone to hit .300 in today’s game.

Tim McCullough (Baseball Prospectus, @TimsTenz): Under on the average – I think somewhere between .280 and .290. Over on the homers with 25 sounding about right.

Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): .295 20 HR’s exactly.

AJ Mass (ESPN, @AJMass): Crunch all the numbers you want, I’m going to go over on both. He already looks more comfortable at the plate than some multi-year veterans. The stats will come.

Ian Kahn (Rotowire, @IanKahn4): I will go over on the average and under on the 20 homers. I anticipate that he will struggle with an injury. .311 Average and 16 Home Runs. Every at bat will be exciting, just limited I’m afraid by injury.

Scott Wilderman (OnRoto, @): lowered his K-rate at each level — hard to see him not pushing .300. More extra base hits at higher levels at age 19 than at age 18 — should be plenty of power at age 20. Clay Davenport practically invented translating minor league stats to their equivalent MLB level, and he’s got V Jr at .298 and 25. The power I think on the upper end, but the average on the lower end of his range.

D.J. Short (Rotoworld, @djshort): I’ll go under on the batting average, though he’s still be plenty useful in the category. It’s just a lot to ask, even with his ridiculous numbers and polished approach. This might be the last time for a while I’ll take the under there. With the way the ball is flying out of the park this year, over on 20 homers feels like a fair expectation. Let’s go!

Mike Sheets (ESPN, @MikeASheets): Common sense tells me to take the under on the .300 BA for a rookie, but I don’t really care. Vlad is different. Give me the over on both.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): C’mon, my pre-season projection was right at 20 homers, hitting .295! I’ll take the under, but just barely for both, simply because he’s only 20 years old, so that would be one heck of a performance in about 5/6ths of a season.

Alan Harrison (The Fantasy Fix, @TheFantasyFix): A healthy Vladito goes .305 with 22 moon shots.

Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink): I’m going over on both, and I feel strongly that if he falls short of either mark, he will do so just barely (assuming health). Guerrero Jr. has a lightening quick bat, and it’s controlled violence. Given what he did against Double-A pitching at 19 years old, I believe he will be able to make a pretty seamless transition to the majors and be one of the top 20 or so most productive hitters from here on. This is an incredibly rare talent.

Tout Daily Period 1 Wrap: Mega-Hertz

Baseball HQ’s Phil Hertz was electric in Tout Daily, waving to the rest of the field with great frequency. Hertz cycled his way to a first and two third place finishes in the first four weeks, capturing a Golden Ticket into the Tout Daily Championships. As the current overall points leader, Hertz leads the charge for the wild-card entry into the finals tournament.

Yahoo Fantasy’s Scott Pianowski and Scout Fantasy’s Adam Ronis earned the other two Golden Tickets for Period 1. As a great example of why consistency prevails in the DFS league format, Pianowski didn’t finish in the top-three in any week of Period 1 while Ronis finished second in Week 3.

The weekly winners in Period 1 were Hertz in Week 1, USA Today’s Steve Gardner in Week 2, Fantasy Football Empire’s Jeff Boggis in Week 3 and Rotowire’s Jeff Erickson in Week 4.

Here’s the Tout Daily Leaderboard

The slate is wiped clean with Period 2 beginning tonight. Be sure to check back later for the competitors pitching and hitting picks for the full Tuesday evening schedule.

Tout Wars Free Agency Bidding Recap – Sunday, April 28

Welcome to this week’s report, summarizing the top free agent bids in each of the five Tout Wars leagues, with links to the detailed bidding action following our 8 p.m. ET deadline each Sunday evening. All prices are on a $1000 base.

After you scan the detail below, please join our live chat, starting at 9 p.m. ET Sunday evening, to discuss these results with Andrea Lamont, aka @rotolady of Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports, along with other Touts.

American League

A whopping count of 23 free agents were acquired in free agent bidding this week.

The top dollar player is Hansel Robles of the Angels at $370 to Rob Leibowitz of RotoHeaven. With an uncertain closing situation, some thought Robles may be behind Ty Buttrey, but on Sunday, Buttrey pitched the eighth and Robles the ninth. Still it was a non-save situation and Robles has just one on the season. This is a situation to keep watching.

The next-highest winning offer was also for an emerging closer, as $199 landed Tampa Bay’s Emilio Pagan onto the roster of Patrick Davitt of BaseballHQ. Pagan is the fifth Rays reliever to secure a save this season, but has collected three straight.

$103 was the top bid for Luis Rengifo of the Angels, acquired by Jeff Erickson of RotoWire. The second baseman is getting regular playing time while batting ninth for the Halos. Rengifo hasn’t stolen a base yet but had 40 last season in the minors.

Review all 4/28 AL bids here.

National League

Though the number of players taken in NL Tout this week was low, just eight, two players fetched big money.

The Padres promoted third baseman Ty France, who was batting .423 with nine home runs in Triple-A. With Greg Garcia his primary competition, France could put pressure on struggling Ian Kinsler for playing time at second. Fernando Tatis’ Sunday injury could add to the opportunity, with Manny Machado moving from third to short. All of this together led to a $261 winning bid from Andy Behrens of Yahoo, with the next closest at $119. (As a point of reference, NL Tout had just 11 other eligible free agent hitters in the entire pool.)

Gio Gonzalez opted out of his minor league contract with the Yankees and re-signed with Milwaukee, where the veteran lefty was quickly inserted into the rotation, where he also made five effective starts to close 2018 after his acquisition from Washington. On Sunday, Gonzalez took a no-decision after allowing two runs in five innings in New York. A proven starter of this quality rarely comes available this early in the season, so bidding was brisk. I won with my $256 offer over the closest competing bid of $217.

Review all 4/28 NL bids here.

Mixed Auction

23 was also the total of free agents to be acquired this week in Mixed Auction.

New Nationals middle infielder Carter Kieboom, with two home runs in his first weekend in the majors, was snapped up for $228 by Derek Van Riper of The Athletic. Playing time looks wide open for at least the next three weeks due to Trea Turner’s injury.

Griffin Canning of the Angels went for $131 to Ray Flowers of Fantasy Guru. The 22-year old is the club’s top pitching prospect and was off to a strong start at Triple-A, with a 0.56 ERA through three starts. The right-hander is slated to make his MLB debut on Tuesday against Toronto.

The money was spread around as no other free agent fetched more than $77 (for Brandon Belt by Tim Heaney).

Review all 4/28 Mixed Auction bids here.

Mixed Draft

Over in Mixed Draft, 16 players found new roster homes this week.

Kieboom caused the biggest blast, drawing a $235 winning bid from Greg Ambrosius of the NFBC. Other top dollar players were taken in other leagues as well, with Pagan and Canning each drawing top offers of $87 (from Tom Kessenich and Tim McLeod, respectively). Next up was Buttrey at $79, also to Ambrosius.

The first new name in the bidding hierarchy is Angels infielder Tommy LaStella, who went to Ray Murphy of BaseballHQ for $66. The 30-year old swatted three home runs last week and is a regular at third.

Review all 4/28 Mixed Draft bids here.

Head to Head

H2H action this week was moderate, with 17 free agents acquired.

Leading the way was Kieboom at $287 to Jake Ciely, followed by a round $150 for Pagan, paid by AJ Mass.

From there, prices dropped hard to the $34 winning offer for Luke Jackson of Atlanta, paid by Clay Link and $33 spent by Ciely on Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff. With Braves closer AJ Minter in a tailspin, Jackson was called upon to pick up the save on Sunday and converted the three-out opportunity against the heart of the Rockies’ lineup. As evidenced by his sharp 2.12 ERA through three outings, Eickhoff is doing his best to make demoted Nick Pivetta a distant memory.

Review all 4/28 Head to Head bids here.

Tout Daily: Wrapping up Period 1

Phil Hertz from Baseball HQ and Steve Gardner from USA Today have dominated the first three weeks and are in the driver’s seat for a ticket into the Tout Daily championship. The third seat is up for grabs with Adam Ronis currently holding down the third spot. Scott Pianowski, Justin Mason, Michael Beller and Anthony Aniano are all within striking distance. Click HERE for the leaderboard.

Here are this week’s Tout Daily picks. Please join us in a live chat as the leaders sweat the first allocation of Golden Tickets.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)

Pitcher: Domigo German – This slate is pretty trashy with regard to pitchers and their match-ups, so paying up for German seems like the safest way to go. He won’t light it up with strikeouts as the Angels aren’t a big whiffing team, but he should be able to limit the damage should the Halos start to hit him at all.

Hitter: Edwin Encarnacion – His numbers against left-handed pitching have been rock-solid, including a .585 wOBA against them this season. Petco shouldn’t scare people off as E5 can easily yank one down the line and put it over the fence.

Gene McCaffrey (The Athletic, @WiseGuyGene)

Pitcher: Frankie Montas – I agree with Howard, not a star-studded cast tonight. I’m going cheaper with Frankie Montas, who never seems to be as good as he looks. I bet Montas is super popular and that’s OK, I’ll just have to beat these bums somewhere else.

Hitter: Brandon Belt – Always a decent bet on the road against a righty, Belt frees up some cash for Coors.

Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink)

Pitcher: Patrick Corbin – He’s the best pitcher on the slate. Coors Field will steer most people away from him, and that creates an opportunity to really separate myself with a strong performance (NOTE: this approach did not work a couple weeks ago with German Marquez, but I need to differentiate if I’m to take this first Golden Ticket).

Hitter: Jose Altuve – Perhaps no hitter benefits more from the juiced ball (in terms of HR) than Altuve, and he gets a guy in Michael Pineda who has allowed four homers in 18.2 innings and has always struggled to limit the long ball. The Crawford Boxes help Altuve’s cause.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)

Pitcher: Frankie Montas – Montas in Spanish means “you ride” and I am riding with Montas tonight. You have to love his early season stats with 3 wins, 20/6 K/BB ratio, 2.70 ERA, and a 0.94 WHIP. I’ll take his $7,600 salary on DraftKings tonight in quest of a 1st period “Boleto Dorado” (Golden Ticket).

Hitter: Alex Bregman – Over the last 7 games Alex Bregman has hit a home run every other game. He did not hit a home run in his last game, so he’s money for a home run tonight.

Dan Strafford (FNTSY Radio, @DanStrafford)

Pitcher: Pitcher Name –

Hitter: Bryce Harper – His price point is just too low to ignore against a somewhat volatile RHP. Zack Wheeler has definite upside on this slate, projecting to be one of the higher strike out starters. While I do think Wheeler is fine, I’m looking to go with a mini-stack of JT Realmuto and a cheap enough Bryce Harper.

Ray Murphy (BaseballHQ, @RayHQ)

Pitcher: Luke Weaver – On a crap pitching slate, I’m buying the recent Weaver gains in a very favorable matchup… good park, bad (and depleted) PIT offense.

Hitter: Juan Soto – Pick a WAS OF, I might well end up having all three of ’em.

Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper)

Pitcher: Frankie Montas – I usually don’t mess with the Texas offense, but if I’m going to do it, it’s when they end up on the road in a cooler, more pitcher-friendly environment. Montas is priced at a level that will likely boost up his ownership on a slate like this, but I’m trying to avoid disasters on the mound with the limited options at the top end of the pool.

Hitter: Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo at $4K flat against a righty who can be leaky with the long ball is exactly what I’m looking for. If you’re looking to get some exposure to the Coors bats, you’ll need to save a little with secondary pieces, and Nimmo is one of my preferred building blocks tonight.

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)

Pitcher: Erik Swanson – Need some lightning in a bottle as I’m way behind in the period and overall. The Padres fan a ton versus RHP. My other pitcher (his name rhymes with Shmardizija) faces another high-K offense.

Hitter: Mitch Garver – Going with a Twins mini-stack against Wade Miley in Houston with Garver leading off. The rest of the bats are all sluggers capable of going yard.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50)

Pitcher: Luke Weaver – He’s been pitching well. Favorable ballpark. It’s not like there’s a slam dunk option like deGrom was two weeks ago.??

Hitter: Victor Robles – Coors! What more do I need to say.

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson)

Pitcher: Frankie Montas – I like his recent form and his price. I’m going to pair him with Domingo German to form the Chalk Brothers duo.

Hitter: Alex Bregman – For Larry. I think that the Astros will hit Piñeda like a piñata.

Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1)

Pitcher: Luke Weaver – Weaver represents a great way to save money tonight and had 9 strikeouts in his last outing. Sometimes it is as simple as that.

Hitter: Victor Robles – The Rockies had a difficult time picking out a starting pitcher and Coors plays tonight. I employed a game stack and filled in with best value catcher plus two White Sox as they have a tasty match up. Let’s go!

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy)

Pitcher: Luke Weaver – He has 17Ks in his last 11.1 IP with only 2 earned runs and faces a Pirates team that averages 3.6 runs per game and 3 per game over their last 3.

Hitter: Jose Abreu – He is 6 for his last 15 with 1 HR and 7 RBIs while only striking out twice. He faces Andrew Cashner and his 4.97 ERA and his 7 HRs allowed over 25.1 inning pitched