This week’s question is:
What are some of the mistakes you see made when managing fantasy teams?
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): The biggest mistake I see is trade analysis. Too often, the focus is on the involved players in a vacuum. The game isn’t played in a vacuum. It’s too bad, batted balls would travel really far, but things like breathing would be tough. Context is everything. Trade evaluation should be roster before versus roster after, with the focus on which offers greater points potential. It’s not my hitter for your pitcher, at least in terms of analysis. The analysis is my roster with the replacement for the hitter I’m losing plus your pitcher, less the one he replaces versus my current roster. Oh yeah, trades aren’t about winning or losing — they’re about both sides benefiting. The add-on to this is too many care only about winning a trade, not helping their team.
Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): Some idiot in the auction mixed Tout Wars league started Greg Bird over Miguel Andujar in his UT spot this week. In all seriousness though, I think we — all fantasy players, not just Touts — are making too many errors in the lineup setting process. I think it’s easy to get hooked on granular data, or to make what seem like toss-up decisions without a well-reasoned process, and we are probably losing more standings points than we even realize with the decisions we’re making each week.
Paul Sporer (Fangraphs, ESPN Fantasy Sports, @Sporer): Trying to find actionable information from every start definitely plagues the fantasy community. Mediocre pitcher throws a gem — wow, must get him everywhere!!; stud throws a dud — OH NO, IS HE DYING?? — The ebbs and flows of a season will shine a light on fifth starters several times a year and a cast a cloud over aces from time-to-time as well. Don’t assume something is markedly different because a single performance doesn’t match the season or career trend.
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Know your league rules! Know how to operate/navigate your league website! These are so basic that it is embarrassing to even mention them. (and yet!) I think the biggest mistake is that owners go on tilt after a particularly bad week and make short-term moves that won’t pan out, long-term. Don’t forget the hot streak against a bad team is far less predictive than rolling projections. Caveat to that: playing time shifts. If you see a playing time shift, that is going to matter to your counting stats. Finally, the 10-day DL is wreaking havoc with weekly lineups. It is frustrating for everyone, so all I can advise is have a reliable set of sources and stay on it as best you can.
Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski): Playing afraid. You can’t be paralyzed by fear. You can’t be afraid of being laughed at. If you think a move makes sense, trust yourself. If you never drop a player and later regret it, at some point in the season, you’re playing far too tentatively. Obviously I’m not saying you should do reckless things; don’t drop Paul Goldschmidt for some flavor of the week. But the fantasy owners I view as the biggest threats to win are those who are selectively aggressive. Better to swing and miss than to never swing at all.
Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): The biggest mistake I see people making is that they think if they aren’t doing something they aren’t doing anything. There are some folks who seemingly think that the person who makes the most moves a season wins. I receive questions from the same people nearly daily, all season long. They make a deal, and then two days later they are making another. They add a player, usually a rookie, give him a week, and then want to add the next guy called up. They have ADHD. Baseball isn’t a game that should be played in this manner, but many seemingly haven’t figured that out yet.
Lawr Michaels (CreativeSports2, @lawrmichaels): Everything my comrades have noted rings true for me. And, in particular, the impatience of player success often boils down to performance. I remember dumping Sean Doolittle a few years back when he was just back from injury, and not yet re-established as the Oakland closer. He had even been pitching well, but got tattooed one particular Sunday and I needed to drop someone and that bad day from him meant a bad day all around. Dumb emotional response. So, try to abstract yourself from your moves: think about how they should work out, and ideally, what your path might be if things don’t work as anticipated. And, for sure, if your team is working well, it is easy to get complacent. Don’t!
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella): Too many fantasy managers swing for the fences with every trade offer. This manifests itself in two ways: 1) People think they have to get a clear “win” on every trade. This approach can work in a weaker league, where you can find at least 3-4 competitors who are perennial bottom feeders. But in a league like Tout, this approach makes little if any sense. 2) Too many offers begin with someone asking for the best or second best player on your roster. Sometimes a blockbuster makes sense, but frequently the best trades are the ones that involve a lesser player or players. The notion of moving Mike Trout for Justin Verlander is fun, but trades like this typically cause too much disruption and are robbing Peter to pay Paul. I find that fantasy managers who only make offers like this do so because they’re not paying close attention and/or are in too many other leagues and haven’t taken the time to look at my team’s roster or needs.
Todd Zola: All saves are not created equal. Relievers WHIP and ERA matter! An elite closer can earn one or two roto-points each in K, WHIP and ERA as compared to an average closer. That grows when comparing to a below-average closer. Of course, this is based on average standings. Your league may not have the same categorical distribution so there are some instances the difference is less than that. However, it can also be more so while it’s contextual, more often than not a better closer helps in more than just saves. Don’t pay for saves is viable, in certain formats. The deeper the league, the less applicable the mantra tends to be. It’s about supply and demand. The deeper the league, the fewer options avail themselves in season with a higher demand for their services. Sometimes, you end up with Bud Norris and look like a genius. Others, you get Tyler Clippard and feel like a fool.
Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): My biggest bugaboo has already been mentioned, but it’s important enough to repeat: Throwing darts with small sample sizes is maddening. This is not fantasy football.
Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): Giving up on players too soon and jumping on a hot player too soon. Paul Goldschmidt, as an example, is not going to hit .200 all year long, even with the humidor. And Nick Markakis is not going to end the year with a .330 batting average. Everyone has hot and cold streaks, and things will tend to average out unless there is a clear reason to think something has changed, such as playing hurt, etc.
Todd Zola: The balance between patience and aggressiveness play seems to be a common theme. Something to keep in mind is we all come from different backgrounds in terms of formats we play and disseminate info for. The shallower the league, and more frequent the transactions, the more the format lends itself to aggressive play. Note, there’s a difference between aggressive and reckless, but some here likely deem what many consider aggressive to be reckless. The most common league size is 10-team mixed. The majority of these permit daily moves. The advice apropos to this format is much different from a deeper mixed league with weekly moves, let alone AL or NL only. This is the main reason I feel the NFBC first got it right with 15-teams, to be followed by Tout and LABR. Educated churn is a big part of play with reckless abandon being punished. I feel 12-team leagues require taking a few more chances, on what some may consider too small a sample to act. There’s nothing wrong with playing the shallower formats – and there’s nothing wrong with not playing due to the churning nature. However, when we dole out advice, context is everything. There’s no one-size-fits-all dictum.
Rick Wolf (Fantasy Alarm, @RickWolf1): What mistakes haven’t I made? That is why we wrote down the SMART system. We need to keep ourselves in check on a set of rules. My biggest mistake is always over-valuing middle range starting pitching. When drafting, a player will come up early and I will overbid because I like him and then a better player will go for $2. Generally, I am too aggressive with moves in season. A good pitcher has 3 bad starts in April and I cut him. Then he wins six in a row. Everyone makes mistakes. Be self-compassionate so that you can not make the same mistake yet not second guess yourself the next time. Many times the result is the only thing that is bad. You went through your analysis and it all made sense. That is not a mistake. That is happenstance.
Justin Mason (Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Fangraphs, Fantasy Alarm, @JustinMasonFWFB): The most common mistake I see from people is complacency. Fantasy baseball is a long season and not being diligent in setting your lineups, making pickups, and examining the standings cost people leagues. If you are unable to stay on top of your team(s) then it will undoubtedly cost you from being as good as you can be. Especially as fantasy football preseason begins to ramp up, people inevitably let baseball take a backseat. This can be a good time for diligent baseball owners to make up ground just by staying on top of things.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I saw wisdom in every previous post.
Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs and Fantrax, @jeffwzimmerman): Know your league rules. I should know as I am one of the biggest violator of this mistake. For example, I participated in Tout Wars for one and half seasons before I knew DL’ed players could be traded in for FAAB dollars. Additionally, I didn’t know injured players could be moved in-and-out of lineup mid-week. I should have known and now make corrections. My recommendation when joining a league, try to go over all the rules and note the most important ones (e.g. minimum innings pitched), especially ones related to the draft or auction. A month or so later, they should be reread again. By this point, an owner will understand 90% of the rules and can concentrate on the few they missed.
Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): Overreacting to small sample sizes, for both positive and negative results. On the flip side, remaining attached to/invested in players who you drafted/purchased at the beginning of the season – unless your league has caps on the number of transactions you can make during the course of a week or season, seeking out even marginal upgrades to your roster usually pays off over the course of a season.