Tout Wars DFS Round Table

Screenshot 2015-03-20 08.57.31

This week’s question requires a little background, specifically the nuances of our FanDuel Tout Daily Tournament. The regular season. so to speak, is 20 weeks long, divided into five periods of four weeks. Each week is a mini-tournament with a modest payout but the big carrot is a ticket into the one-day Tout Daily Championship with a $1000 grand prize. The top-three finishers in each period will get an entry into the finals. Each Tout is allowed to earn two tickets. With that in mind, here’s this week’s question:

IT’S THE LAST WEEK OF PERIOD THREE, WE AWARD THREE MORE TICKETS INTO THE TOUT DAILY CHAMPIONSHIP FRIDAY NIGHT. HOW WILL YOUR PRESENT PLACEMENT IN THE PERIOD THREE STANDINGS INFLUENCE YOUR LINEUP FOR THIS WEEK’S TOUT DAILY?

Peter Kreutzer, www.askrotoman.com, @kroyte: Finding myself 55 points out of the Top 3, with one week to play, with the highest score of any week in this phase 63, I have to admit I’m out of it. But I’m not out of the weekly money contest. So I will submit the lowest-priced pitcher I think is a good chance to win, and then select players from the highest scoring games expected that night.  It is an approach that has failed me so far, landing me bad hitters on the nights I have good pitching and good hitters on the nights I have bad pitching. And some weeks all has gone bad, but I’m pretty sure there will be a week when all goes good. Could be this one.

Charlie Wiegert, www.CDMSports.com, @GFFantasySports: Not a time to play it safe, I need a lot of long shots to hit and the studs to be duds to just reach respectability!

Lawr Michaels, www.mastersball.com, @lawrmichaels: Well, I guess I am “lucky/skillfull” enough to have made the cut in Phase II, so I can experiment a little and not lose too much face. But, that does not mean I don’t want to win. I will obviously try to get in with pitching, though seriously, after the horrible Felix Hernandez meltdown my faith in just about everything DFS has reaffirmed my more instinctive Zen approach generally works better for me than does a “sure thing.”

Michael Beller, www.SI.com, @MBeller: I’m in second place for period three, so I’ve got a lot on the line this week. This may not be a satisfying answer to some, but I’m not changing my strategy at all. I’ve now cashed in Tout Daily five times, including one win and another top-three finish, and I’ve had my most success by building my lineup around a pitcher. That’s what I’ll do again Friday, with no shortage of options at our disposal.

Lenny Melnick, www.rotoexperts.com, @LennyMelnick: Competitive juices flowing! Love this standings format for Daily! I have my ticket for finals locked up but I sit 20+ pts points behind leaders in June I will go contrarian and take chances with the hope of being 20 pts better than the leaders. I have done 5 teams options already and I will sit on it for now until the lineups come out! A few surprises in store…IF THEY are playing.

Steve Moyer, www.inside-edge.com: I’d be happy to grind out $12 every week and that’s how I play. If I happen to stumble into the finals, then so be it.

Brian Walton, www.mastersball.com, @B_Walton: Though I should be more motivated to take risk than most, I will stick with my approach to assemble the best team possible. What is behind my motivation point is that I appear to be the only one among the overall leaders to have not yet qualified for the finals. Perhaps there needs to be a wild card added in the future for a marathoner who finds himself among a group of world-class sprinters!

Jeff Boggis, www.FantasyFootballEmpire.com, @JeffBoggis: I think of all the Touts that have the most pressure on them this week, it would be me. I am currently in 3rd place for phase 3 with only a 3 point lead, so every point counts for me this week. The competition is fierce as there are 3 teams in 4th (Scott Pianowski), 5th (Adam Ronis), and 7th (Lenny Melnick) place that have already qualified from either phase 1 or phase 2, so you know that they will bring their A game this week as they can obtain another ticket with a top 3 finish in this phase. For me, the most important element is not getting cute or taking risks, and it all starts with selecting the right pitcher. I already know who I will start as my starting pitcher this week and it will be revealed in Friday’s top pitcher and hitter recommendations article. I then have to fill the other 8 hitting slots with an average of $3,000 per player. I typically will spend $4-$5K on 3-5 hitters in the 1B, 3B, and OF slots, and fill in the remaining 3-4 slots with $2,200 upside players. I will be paying closer attention to the weather and also to finalized MLB rosters as I can’t afford to have players involved with a rainout or given the night off on Friday. To date, for me there has been no magic formula for success in Daily Fantasy Sports. I’ve really enjoyed the opportunity and competition that Tout Daily offers me as I can experiment with different roster strategies. I will be watching both Friday’s competition and the overall phase 3 scores with extra interest on Friday night as I pray for that “golden ticket” into the Tout Daily Championship. Good luck to everyone on Friday!

Rob Leibowitz, www.mastersball.com, @Rob_Leibowitz: Looking at the standings, despite my solid 3rd place showing last week, I won’t be able to overcome my lousy first two weeks of this phase. With that in mind, I will have to go outside the box for most of my picks (and cross my fingers) on some longshots to come within earshot of the top three.

Gene McCaffrey, www.wiseguys.com, @gene2323: I’m trying to find the players with the best chance to get the most points. With a close call I’m inclined to choose the guy I THINK will be less popular, but really that is a guess – more distraction than sound thinking. Speaking of Felix last week, Price was CLEARLY a better choice for performance, what steered me away was the weather issue.

WE INTERRUPT THE ROUND TABLE FOR A SIDE BAR BETWEEN www.RockRemnants.com compadres Lawr and Gene:

Lawr: I dunno Gene. Felix, a strikeout pitcher, going against the team that has the second most whiffs in the majors over the season so far seemed pretty logical at the time. Even if he gave up all those eight runs over say six innings, but struck out ten he would have been worth eight points. that might not have been enough for much, but no one expected that implosion. And, that is why baseball is such mysterious fun, right. you just never know!

Gene: Well, that’s why we play, but one is at home for a .514 team vs. a .465 team, the other on the road for a .452 team vs. a .568 team. I only wish I’d taken my own advice…

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED ROUND TABLE

Scott Pianowski, www.Yahoo.com, @scott_pianowski: I’m close enough to the ticket area that I can just play it straight, go for the best plays I see without concern to likely pool behavior. If I were down a tier or so, I’d strongly consider pitcher differentiation, since that’s the spot with the most team-to-team variance.

Derek Van Riper, www.rotowire.com, @DerekVanRiper: I won’t be changing anything in my approach even with a small lead for the top spot in Phase 3. If I were on the outside looking in as a qualifier heading into the week, my emphasis would be on players with higher ceiling output, albeit with more variance. Additionally, I would probably think a little more about how much ownership there will be on some of the key players for the teams ahead of me.

Scott Swanay, www.fantasybaseballsherpa.com, @Fantasy_Sherpa: The short answer is “not at all”. Unless the Cards decide to start Miguel Socolovich Friday night, I decide to use him, and he earns a perfect score of 40, I have no chance of finishing in the top three this phase. My personal goal is to score at least 35 points this week so that I’ll beat my Phase 2 score, which was better than my Phase 1 score. At that pace, I might be in contention for a top-three phase finish about the same time the Phillies are in contention for a top-three finish in the NL East again.

Jake Ciely, www.rotoexperts.com, @allinkid: I have to go GPP style and lean contrarian. I missed the Top 3 by 12 points the first period, less than two the second period and now sit about 17 back from third place. I need to make up significant ground and can’t play it safe… but also, I’m trying to convince the powers-that-be to also award anyone in the Top 5 at season’s end a ticket (if they didn’t grab a monthly Top 3 spot). After all, I’ve been so consistent that I’m fourth overall on the year (two points from third overall), yet I’m headed towards missing a ticket for the third straight month! Consistent excellence should be rewarded… who’s with me?!

*crickets*
Nando DiFino, www.rotoexperts.com, @nandodifino: I’m going to play the week like I’ve played every other week — without even considering the overall standings and just going after the best lineup to win the most money. I rarely play 50/50s — and maybe that’s to my detriment — but this is still fun for me, and I see no joy in playing it safe and tip-toeing around logically-selected risks.
Ray Murphy, www.baseballhq.com, @RayHQ: Being 30 points out of the top 3 (thanks, Felix), it opens the doors to some extremely contrarian strategies. I could conceivably do something like build a lineup stack against the night’s most popular ace (Scherzer), hoping that the combination of a Scherzer blowup would put a big hurt on the people who roster him while vaulting my lineup of low-ownership bats to the top.Or, more likely, I’ll play it straight-up and just look to win the week outright before moving on to the next phase.
Todd Zola, www.mastersball.com, @ToddZola: I’m so far out of it I’ll be playing this tournament style and trying for the weekly prize, then I’ll evaluate how I want to approach the next phase over the course of the week.