Welcome to a new feature, our inaugural ToutTable, a round table featuring the Tout Warriors. Each week, a question will be posed, with the comments posted every Monday.
This week’s query:
What do you look for early in the season? How quickly do you act on unexpected performance? Is there anything in particular you look for when evaluating early-season production?
Perry Van Hook (Mastersball): Looking for the obvious – injuries and who will gain at bats is easy, but I think good fantasy players look for the player who “might” – inherit some save chances; have a shot at being put into the rotation or supplant a starting hitter who may be “tiring” or has an injury that might take him out of the lineup. I look at the stat rates of the players I see on the horizon.
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): First I’m looking to fill gaps on my roster coming out of the draft. So, for example, this year in Tout I left myself with a Big Two and a little seven pitching staff, so I’m looking for any possibilities to improve the staff. Separately I’m looking for surprises in playing time and/or performance and whether there is any reason to suspect that the “surprise” will be continuing.
Michael Beller (Sports Illustrated, @MBeller): Just like Charles Van Doren loved to do in Quiz Show, I’m going to take the second part first. I act pretty quickly on unexpected performance. For evidence of that, look no further than my $87 bid on Matt Davidson in Tout Mixed Draft. You don’t have time to wait for proof in even moderately competitive leagues. If you want to strike gold, or even silver, on the waiver wire, you need to take the plunge with little more than 10 or 20 plate appearances pushing you over the edge. No matter your league parameters, there’s going to be plenty of roster churn in those last few spots. If you take a big early swing and miss, it doesn’t much matter. Plus, swinging for the fences and missing is in vogue these days. Consider yourself part of the launch angle revolution. What do I look for early in the season? Substantive change in players we thought we knew. A good example from the first week of this season is Jake Odorizzi throwing 17 curve balls, which matched a career high and was just the 10th time in 127 career starts he threw 10 or more curves. Any time a veteran shows us something new, we should take notice.
Tim Heaney (Rotowire, @Tim_Heaney): The short answer: Context matters, for all. The slightly longer answer has several steps. What do I look for early in the season? Realistic performance that can translate into a large role. Sometimes, even in small sample sizes, truths can be revealed about whether a player improves or declines. Has a pitcher added a new pitch or delivery? Did a batter change something about his swing? As for how quickly I act on unexpected performance, I do my best to deduce whether such a development is based on good or bad luck, then go from there. Is a player doing well because he’s churning out hard contact, or is everything just falling in? Is a pitcher stranding an above-normal amount of runners? Piece the data points together, and you can glean a somewhat clear picture about their future. The final key element I try to accomplish early in the year: Stash as many promising names as possible *before* hype kicks in — and their FAAB price climbs.
Lenny Melnick (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @LennyMelnick): Look at playing time changes….Monitor batting orders….Give some hitters a break due to cold weather…Dont expect SB in cold weather….Check pitch counts to see SP efficiency, not just wins and loses..Prepare to make adjustment if you find your team dropping out of a category…
Al Melchior (FNTSY Radio, @almelchiorbb): If a hitter has an extreme change in power as indicated by exit velocity or batted ball distance, I will take a flier. I’m more likely to do this in shallower leagues where there are lots of viable replacements on waivers. Normally, I’d start adding players based on these changes after a couple of weeks…maybe sooner if there have been earlier signs of a power breakout. I wait longer to act on changes in contact skills or plate discipline. As for pitchers, if they come out of the gate with back-to-back starts with a large spike in whiff rate or velocity, I’ll be willing to add them in shallower leagues.
Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner): I mostly look for paths to extended playing time, especially in deeper leagues. In those, you really can’t wait for stats to stabilize because someone is going to pick up any player with even a hint of value. You need playing time first. If someone can nail that down, it’s a lot easier to evaluate them when they’re on your roster. As long as the cost of ownership is low, I try to use my last roster spots to go fishing for high-upside players.
Peter Kreutzer (Ask Rotoman, Fantasy Baseball Guide, @kroyte): If I have a hole my only evaluation is to rank the available options. In a AL or NL league, the options are slim, so someone hitting a homer or stealing a base or seeing a little playing time can be enough to put him on top of the list. I don’t ignore a sensible evaluation, but even for guys with long histories of mediocrity, sometimes they just Gennett. If you have a need you don’t have time to figure out why someone is playing better, or if it is sustainable. You have to go for it first, then constantly try to figure out if there is a better option out there.
Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): In a league as deep as N.L. Tout, sometimes we’re just looking for anyone who might get, say, 6-8 at-bats in a given week. It’s rough out there. In a league of typical size and shape, you’ll never get anyone if you’re slow to react to a potential breakout. As a general rule, I simply like to see a plausible explanation for a player’s unexpected performance — a new pitch, a new approach, a jump in velocity, etc. Give me any reason to believe something is genuinely different or new. I’ll be much more aggressive taking fliers on players who can help address clear areas of need.
Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): I watch for playing time and manager use, like lineup spot or platoon. Seasoned veterans I don’t get too worried with slow starts, like Jose Ramirez, and look for trade opportunities for them. Rookies like Ryan McMahon, I look for more productive replacements. For closers who might have trouble holding a job, I look for their replacement.
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): I try not to overreact to anything this early. We have a week in–it is a long season–and free agents weren’t selected for a reason. Obviously, holes have to be filled. I look at roles that differ from projections so I can adjust projections and act accordingly. With pitchers, all season long it is K/9-BB/9 and HR/9 and I will grab pitchers that other teams gave up on because of ER problems. I am much later to jump on a guy who hit 3 home runs (yes, Villanueva I am looking at you) unless I have a hole and he’s the only viable option bc PT. In mixed leagues which tend to be shallower, I am even slower to make moves the first couple of weeks. The exception to all of this is closers, who are here one day, gone the next depending on context and role. Otherwise, I’d preach excruciating patience with slow starters or a starter who had a bad start or a guy you believed in just a week ago. I spend a lot of April time trying to get a better read on my own teams and where they will have strength to trade and what needs I’ll want to fill down the road.
Andrea LaMont (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @RotoLady): I do address holes in my roster but try not to react to under-performance in the first couple weeks unless my players aren’t getting any at bats. If they are in the lineup every day I just remind myself why I drafted them in the first place. I do replace some players on my bench who may have been sent down to the minors or have no straight path to playing time. In daily leagues I add an extra catcher if possible and a couple extra effectors to slot in active spots where I don’t have a starter active for the day. They really help keep ERA and WHIP down and earn a few wins along the way.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I agree with Steve Gardner—path to PT is the critical factor, whether injury or under-performance of the incumbent, and/or great performance by the target player. As well, in AL-only the premium is on quick action, even though the stats are not close to stable. As a result, as Podz says, there’s a lot more focus on (and dependence on) skills. I also follow Clay’s example by assessing batting orders to see if anyone is in a better (or worse) situation than expected, although in AL-only if guy is in a batting order at all, he’s probably rostered!
Jason Collette (Rotowire, @jasoncollette): I try to follow the old rule that Cory Schwartz often preached: 26 weeks minus the round you drafted the player in. That said, I don’t give anyone 3 weeks of leniency and already replaced one of my reserve picks. If there is a playing time situation that changes drastically, I’ll aggressively pursue the opportunity, but otherwise try to slowly build up on deficiencies out of the draft. On that note, who has speed?
Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): In reference to Todd’s second question, I am currently running a poll at RonShandler.com that asks what type of extreme surprise performance would be enough to make you change your expectations. Early results are interesting.
Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): I’ll take an especially long look at hitters who had walk rates or pitchers who had strikeout rates significantly above their career norms during Spring Training this year. Of course, if the same were true last Spring Training, and it was followed by a regression to career norms during the regular season (looking at you, Matt Davidson), I’ll temper my enthusiasm. Yoan Moncada, Andrew Triggs, Amir Garrett, and Tyler Glasnow are probably the names that jumped out at me during Spring Training this year, but of course most of them are probably owned already in all but the shallowest leagues.
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): I almost completely ignore actual results, instead analyzing underlying skill metrics that stabilize more quickly. These include velocity, pitch mix, and batted ball type changes for pitchers. For batters, that also includes batted ball type changes, along with plate discipline changes, such as swing and contact rates. If there’s word of a swing mechanics or plate approach change that explains the early season change in underlying skills, it’s easier to believe the results are sustainable. I’m always extremely patient with my players, ultimately figuring they will settle in right around their projections. I’m usually quicker to act on pitchers as their skill level changes much more quickly.
Tim McCullough (@Tim_Rotoexperts): I typically wait until hitters have at least 100 at bats before doing anything about performance, but I will keep an eye on playing time to make sure my players are actually accruing plenty of plate appearances. If I find that a player is in a platoon or some other split of the games, I will scour the waiver wire to see if a replacement makes sense. With pitchers, I try to watch as many games as I can to see how they’re throwing, but I will also check the stats, looking for things like a drastic change in pitch selection or the addition of a new pitch that is effective or making his repertoire more effective. Aside from that, I don’t get to wrapped up in the numbers aside from the skill metrics (K%, BB%, Hard Hit%, GB%).
Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink): I want to monitor strikeouts and walks for both hitters and pitchers along with velocity, exit velocity, batting order placement and bullpen roles. If someone begins to emerge, I’m looking at various player pages and combing through articles trying to develop a more complete picture of the player and the player’s progression (more complete than my opponents’ anyway). I’m also keeping a close eye on the drops in my leagues and trying to add talent to my bench wherever possible — more so than looking to replace my starters — while being aggressive with my early-season FAAB bidding.
Scott White (CBS Fantasy Sports, @CBSScottWhite): What is a reserve spot but a place to reserve a player for yourself? And so the most logical choice to fill yours are the players you’re most likely to lose to someone else. After all, you have a finite number of reserve spots but probably an infinite number of players who you could talk yourself into adding. If a player isn’t generating much interest in the moment, regardless of your personal feelings about him, you can let him lie, instead prioritizing the flavor of the week, and many sites offer “most added” and “most viewed” data to help you identify just that. Now obviously, if you see little upside to the player making the most noise and think the world’s gone mad, you don’t HAVE to act on him, but it usually doesn’t require much imagination.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, Rotowire, ESPN Fantasy Sports, @toddzola): You know what? My favorite thing to do early is kick back and watch some ball. With matinee affairs, there’s wall-to-all games, weather permitting. I find the first few weeks the most enjoyable in terms of just watching.
With respect to managing, I struggle with the difference between being aggressive and reckless. That said, the shallower the format, the more it makes sense to be aggressive, or is that reckless? Look at Matt Davidson and Christian Villanueva. You don’t need a Tout to tell you a three-homer game is nothing more than a great game. Given the option of picking one up, who do you choose? We know what Davidson is, a trio of long balls likely doesn’t change that. Villanueva’s pedigree doesn’t portend this being more than a fluke, but do we KNOW? The chance Davidson contributes something is greater than Villanueva, but Villanueva’s ceiling is higher, simply because we don’t know what it is. Weird as it may seem, the shallower the league, the more viable Villanueva is since there’s a plusher supply of replacements if he flames out. If he hits (literally and figuratively, you’re upgrading one of the weaker spots on your roster.