Each week, the Tout Warriors will be asked to contribute to a round table.
This week’s Tout Table question is
Let’s talk free agent bidding. What’s your early season philosophy? How do you decide how much to bid?
Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys): It’s tough. You have to try and gauge the hype surrounding a player, though frequently the players you really have an interest in adding have astutely been scooped up by others in previous FAAB runs. Really, it’s about managing your team’s needs as much as anything else. If you have a need, you attack it understanding the type of player you are looking to add. Is he a “boring” vet? Is he a young player who suddenly has a shot at playing time? Is he a limited player filling a certain category – homers or steals – or is he an across the board contributor? Also, which position does he play? All of that needs to be factored in to the decision of how much to spend. A tip – never bid a “normal” number. Don’t bid $10 or $150. Always push the total a bit.
Scott Engel (RotoExperts, @scotteRotoEx): I try to stay somewhat conservative to fill some immediate glaring needs, such as saves if needed, or to grab a hot player I may really believe in. But with such a long season I try to keep most bids under 100 dollars. In that range I will get aggressive, though. I’ll bid in the high 70s to 90s if I really want a guy. But I am not dropping 300-plus dollars for anyone in April. I did go a bit over 100 for Ohtani as a hitter at 111, and was a bit surprised I won him. I thought that would no be aggressive enough
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Depends from league to league and even from year to year. If injuries hit, I’m probably spending. If not, I’ll try to be judicious . Also in only leagues, if someone good comes into the league, all bets are off.
Al Melchior (FNTSY Radio, @almelchiorbb): I have had a tendency to spend too recklessly early on, so I’ve been more cautious so far. If you spent your budget in equal amounts each week, it would come out to just under 4% per week, so I have tried to keep my bids under $40. I also target some players for the $0-$10 range who I really like but don’t expect there to be much interest in. So far, my most expensive FAAB acquisition was Sal Romano for $42. I also have one $1 player and two $0 players.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): In the -only format, there’s not much in the FA pool (especiallly hitters) to get worked up about. I’ve made a bunch of $0 bids to get some LIMA relievers for streaming purposes, but I wouldn’t mind of the Reds traded Joey Votto into the AL while I have the FAAB hammer.
Anthony Perri (Fantistics, @Anthony_Perri): I tend to be somewhat conservative with my bidding. I rarely spend over 100 (out of $1000 budget). If a player gets off to a hot start, he’s going to have to be a top 20 prospect for me to break over $100. I am however willing to spend 60-65% of my money in the early months (before July), to get a better (longer) return on investment. I find that newly appointed closers go for much more than I’m willing to spend in these expert leagues, so I tend to gravitate more towards the “closer in waiting” at a cheaper price.
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): If I need to plug a hole and there is that one clear-cut guy who can help me, I tend to overbid. If I see a player that I think is going to be useful all season, I tend to overbid. Otherwise, I tend to be conservative or not bid at all.
Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): I’ve always felt that it makes sense to be aggressive on early-season FAAB bids, because players are obviously most valuable to you when there are five months remaining in the season. Bid amounts should reflect the potential impact of an add on roto points. You clearly want to be most aggressive when you see an opportunity to address a position or category of need from the free agent pool. However, in only-leagues, it should go without saying that you want to be a player in July, when MLB trades are happening and useful fantasy assets are switching leagues.
Peter Kreutzer (Ask Rotoman, Fantasy Baseball Guide, @kroyte): Andy is right about early season pickups having more potential value than later ones. Some early season roster problems are caused by injuries and are short term, you need a fill in for a few weeks or so. If the available fill ins are not inspiring, I tend to be a cheapskate when bidding. Bidding more isn’t going to make a meh player better. But if there is a potential regular out there, I might bid aggressively even if I don’t have a long term hole, because quality will find a way to play. Other early season roster problems come because you missed on a player you thought would have a regular job, or who isn’t performing. You have to be aggressive finding replacements for these guys. That doesn’t mean going crazy with the bidding, but it means bidding on all acceptable substitutes. League size matters, too. In a shallow mixed league, like H2H, players will fall through the cracks. In AL or NL only, you know that just about every free agent will be bid on. If there is someone you want or need, you have to step up and try to get him, though obviously you can only do that so many times per season.
Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): It depends whether my bid is being done out of necessity (e.g. – player for whom I have no Bench replacement goes on the DL) vs the desire to make incremental improvements to my roster. If it’s the former, and the league members have been relatively stable over time, I might take a look at what historical bidding has looked like for comparable players, especially if I’m looking to bid on a Closer. If it’s an “incremental improvement” player, I won’t bid more than I’d feel comfortable “losing” if the player were to contribute nothing to my team’s stats. The number of alternatives available and the perceived needs of the other teams in the league will also influence my bidding. On a related note, I generally think owners are too conservative with their cash, thinking “if there’s n% of the season left, then I should have roughly n% of my FAAB left”. The arrival/availability of players who could have a meaningful impact on your season is not uniformly distributed – more such players are typically available earlier in the season as preseason playing time concerns get sorted out. Also, especially in roto leagues, you can rough out a FAAB spending budget based on the relative amount of the season left (e.g. – at the end of Week 2 there are 24 weeks left in the season, and at the end of Week 14 there are 12 weeks left in the season, so I should be willing to spend twice as much for a player at the end of Week 2 than I would for a comparable player at the end of Week 14).
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): In a deep mono league, it’s not often that a hitter becomes available on free agency who is expected to take over a full-time job and hold it for at least a month. If a hitter figures to solely be a short-term solution for a team, then I shy away from bidding since I’ll just need to replace that player again in a couple of weeks. I try to be aggressive if I feel a player is going to have a long-term impact, but that just doesn’t happen very frequently. Instead, I want to be proactive, picking up a player a week too early in the hopes that I could avoid a bidding war and nab a guy who could help me the rest of the year. For pitchers, I have learned not to chase wins and strikeouts by acquiring a collection of weak fifth starters, instead opting to search for breakout middle relievers who won’t kill my ratios.
Stephania Bell (ESPN Fantasy Sports, @Stephania_ESPN): My rationale for FAAB bidding continues to evolve based on where I have had successes and failures in the process. There is no real means of picking a satisfactory number in my estimation because if you win by a large margin it often feels like overbidding; if you lose by even $1, it’s regret at underbidding. In the past, I have largely underbid because of the fear of running out of $$ when you need it later in the season (injuries/late season call-ups, etc). Agree now with the folks who talk about being aggressive early, especially when there is a clear deficit and you can see a potential to help narrow the gap by adding a player who will see regular playing time. Since you never know whether you are competing with one other bidder or an entire league, the bid has to be lofty enough to leave no room for doubt about what was offered. Where I am willing to take a loss to another bidder (just dipping my toe in the bidding pool to see if I come up lucky) I don’t mind being much more conservative and taking my chances on the player going elsewhere. As a result, my bids probably range from very high to pretty low without a lot that are middle of the road.
Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink): I want to be aggressive going after potential difference makers. Otherwise, I’m probably working in the 2-7 percent range for the short-term injury replacements. In an 18-team league I’m in, Walker Buehler was dropped during one of the first FAAB periods, and I jumped in the next week with a $21 bid (out of $100). It was a big investment, but his repertoire is exciting and you can dream on 110 innings at the big-league level. In a league that deep, he could be extremely valuable. In another league (13 teams), Aaron Hicks was dropped. I was aggressive going after him, and elsewhere took a similar approach with a few high-ceiling youngsters who got the call sooner than expected in Teoscar Hernandez and Franchy Cordero. I’m not going to go to double digits typically for known commodities like Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Flores, and I’m going to limit myself to modest bids on fringe talents like Daniel Robertson and Tyler Austin, but I’ll open up the wallet a bit if I can see plausible upside.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Lots of good points already, I’ll embellish a little. In AL or NL only, everyone thinks about the July 31 deadline when the big fish come over. Truth is, there’s two other lesser, but important time frames to fortify via FAAB. Right after the Super-two deadline passes, a bunch of prospects are called up. In most leagues, the marquee names are already on a fantasy roster, but with playing time being currency, adding a non-elite but serviceable prospect can pay dividends. Being aggressive early still permits being a player in May/June for these promotions. The other deadline is August 31 when more and more waiver deals are consummated. yeah, you only get the player for a month or so, but if they affect a closely-bunched category, a month could be plenty.
Tout Wars has a rule where you are docked FAAB units in accordance with your finish the previous season. Each league has a threshold point total, penalizing 10 FAAB units for each points you finish below that total. In the years I’ve started short with FAAB, my philosophy is to be aggressive early since I won’t be a player at the July 31 deadline. Some consider my philosophy overbidding, I call it getting the guy(s) I want.
A couple of my colleagues discussed trying to quantify how much to spend, relative to the help they’ll provide. I’ve often considered this, it can be done using previous season’s pickups and standings. Just as I get the spreadsheet set up, I remember ECON 101 – supply and demand. What a player is worth and what it costs to acquire their stats are two different things.
Let’s say there are three equal players at the same position available with two fantasy managers with an obvious need. Supply and demand are about equal, you shouldn’t have to bid a lot for one of the three.
Now let’s say only one of those players is available but five managers need him. You better bid aggressively to beat out the other four competitors. Same player, same stats, completely different bid.