The calendar has turned to May.
We’re just over one month in. Is this a checkpoint for fantasy team management? If so, what are some of the things you do?
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): I don’t consider it much of a checkpoint. I scour the waiver wires to fill gaps and improve the squad. But if I believed in a player during the draft, it might be too early to punt said player. If an end-game player, I have already been trying to improve the slot. So really it is not a checkpoint of significance for me. First significant checkpoint for me is roughly third week of May. If I have not been able to improve a slot by then, I start thinking about how a trade might be mutually beneficial (in a redraft league) or whether I should take a shot on someone with a short track record. Often, pitchers stink early on and find a groove. Or vice versa. Or get hurt. What makes May 1 special? I dunno. I get more active in late May/early June if I know that I need something specific.
Andy Andres (BaseballHQ, @sabermetrics101): I think four to five weeks into the season is like any other chance to use FAAB to incrementally improve my team, look at my needs, and see what is available. In AL and NL Only leagues I think it is normal to find at least a few places to improve one’s roster
Bret Sayre (Baseball Prospectus, @BretSayreBP): For me, it depends on the kind of league I’m in. In a keeper league, it’s a good checkpoint to evaluate whether I need to rebalance the team in order to stay in contention for the current season. In that type of league, if you wait until June, it’s probably too late to both try to contend and then be able to pivot and sell if necessary. In a redraft, it’s an initial checkpoint – you’re not going to want to make any rash judgement about players with strong pedigrees, but you definitely want to check in with other owners in your league who may not have the same philosophy. A ton of trading opportunities exist in May with players whose top-line stats either don’t match their deserved stats or who are just flat out struggling.
Glenn Colton (SiriusXM Fantasy, @GlennColton1): Is it a checkpoint? Yes. However, one must be careful not to put too much weight on the first month. There are many reasons. Here is a simple one: you spent a lot on Acuna. You knew the first month would be a struggle. In the end, better to look for issues created by injuries, lost jobs or very obvious misses in your player analysis. However, I (and everyone should) try not to throw out months of analysis and work on the player pool on one month (of often cold weather) performance.
Michael A. Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): It is just as good a time as any to take an objective look at where you are in the standings and evaluating where it makes the most sense to try and improve. Baseball is all about the law of averages, so eventually most stats and numbers will even out to where they were expected to. Certain things like closers and saves are always volatile, so trying to compensate for Devin Williams and Clase’s shortcomings may trigger impulsive reactions. It is still too early in the season to make knee-jerk reactions, but you also don’t want to miss the bus if there are alternatives. You also don’t want to sell low on players off to slow starts. A month into the season is not time to panic but you also don’t want to be too complacent and allow yourself to fall further in the standings.
Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman): It’s still early enough that I’m mostly still thinking in terms of maximizing the total talent on my roster at this point of the year, not thinking too hard about my team’s specific strengths and weakness (i.e. I’ll pick up a C+ power hitter over a C- speed guy even if I need speed more than power). There’s plenty of time for that sort of thing later in the year. However, I’d say it’s late enough to have a good general sense of which of my teams aren’t in a good place. I won’t get overly excited about teams that had a strong first month, but any team still in the bottom third at this point needs some extra attention before it’s too late.
Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): This isn’t quite yet a checkpoint for overall standings. The standings today are largely uncorrelated with what the standings will look like at season’s end. However, at this point – you CAN make some conclusions as to categories or positions that you are weak in. At this point, I do like to assess which underperforming players on my squads should bounce back – and which might not – to make a few roster moves. I also at this point take a quick look at other teams’ rosters to see where trading could help. It is way too early to ever panic – but now is the time I look to make some obvious moves.
Mike Podhorzer (FanGraphs, @MikePodhorzer): One month in, I usually try to identify my team’s overperformers as potential trade bait, and underperformers from other teams as potential trade targets. That’s really it at this point, as I typically wait until at least 2 months into the season before putting much weight into the actual standings. We’re still in small sample size territory (uhhh, Tommy Edman is ranked in a tie for 14th in home runs in baseball), so there are likely to be significant changes in the standings over the remainder of the season.
Corbin Young (Baseball HQ, Rotowire, @corbin_young21): With the regular content and research I’m doing, some players go overlooked. I’m focusing on playing time for hitters (loss, gain) and any skill or pitch changes for pitchers that warrant holding or being patient if the results don’t align. The opposite is also true, where I’m cutting players if the early skills don’t intrigue me enough, especially with a lack of track record. It’s also about when I check the standings to see what areas I might be lacking category-wise, and start to prioritize them based on my roster.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I don’t personally view one month in as a checkpoint, but others do, so in trading leagues, I make a point of looking over my rosters so that I can reply to trade offers in a timely manner. I generally don’t seek out trades this early, but I’m always willing to listen to offers. Something my friend and Mastersball founder Jason Grey used to do is make a small, seemingly inconsequential deal, usually proposed by someone looking to fill a hole. The deal was most likely parallel in that it didn’t help or hurt Jason, but he felt he was greasing the skids for a more significant swap later in the season.
Greg Jewett (The Athletic, @gjewett9): Identify a team’s strengths and weaknesses without overreacting. It’s a delicate balance. The toughest thing will be making tough decisions about players underperforming and figuring out how to proceed with them. As sample sizes get larger, statistics normalize. Should fantasy players bail on Max Muncy (LAD), a slow starter by past results, but his whiff rates are concerning? Ryan Helsley has a 1.55 WHIP with a 4.1 K-BB percentage. Is this velocity? Pitch mix? A blip? Fantasy baseball remains a marathon, but knowing when to hold a player or move keeps us ahead of the competition.
Fred Zinkie (Yahoo/Rotowire, @FredZinkieMLB): I don’t think that there is ever a true checkpoint, as each Sunday is its own checkpoint. But I will acknowledge that at this point in the season, it’s time to assess individual players who aren’t pulling their weight. This may be a good time to cut the cord on those who would be a better fit on the waiver wire. The problem in 15-team leagues is that there isn’t much to add. In 12-team leagues, I would be more ruthless.
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus): I don’t know if I’d call it a checkpoint, but in Roto trading leagues this is when I like to start looking closely at categorical weaknesses and figure out how much of a fact or fluke they are. If I lost Blake Snell and Justin Steele to injury, I would need to adjust my pitching expectations. This doesn’t even necessarily mean “trade hitting for pitching.” In deeper leagues, sometimes the answer it the opposite and you should push even more for the hitting points you can get while recognizing your team might be mid in non-saves categories.
Phil Hertz (Baseball HQ, @prhz50): It’s definitely a point where some category evaluations need to be made and make decisions about how fixable categories where teams are lagging. It’s also a time to see if some of the guys taken late in drafts or bought for a buck are ripe for turnover.
Chris Torres (Pitcher List, Fantasy Pros, @TorresTakes): I do feel that the one-month mark is a good checkpoint in the fantasy baseball season. Stats are beginning to normalize, and I think we have a better idea of what is signal vs. noise. One thing that I did recently to try to find that signal is to see how my players’ rest-of-season projections have changed in comparison to pre-season projections. This exercise grounds me in reality rather than becoming too swayed by what may just be early-season variance.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): Too early to make major roster decisions, particularly as mentioned upthread about the big guns acquired at draft. I’d be curious to see Touts’ opinions about when they would start to consider dropping an underperforming $20+ or R1-4 player. But it’s never too early to make minor roster decisions, especially about late-draft acquisitions.
Michael Govier (Pallazzo Podcast, @mjgovier): The beginning of May is a time to make trades! Actually, this might be the best time of the year to do so because we’ve played enough of a sample to cause panic in some which in turn gives you the chance to swoop in on a player you know will start producing more in the weeks to come. Early April is too early & mid-April isn’t quite right either. The first week of May is Goldilocks’ porridge. The time is JUST RIGHT! I strongly advise taking this time to identify regular players with hard hit rates above 40% with little results to show for it & for pitchers identify those who have poor LOB% rates that should return to career norms. Use these tools & go shopping!
Anthony Aniano (RotoBaller/SiriusXM Fantasy, @AanianoFantasy): Yes, early May is a checkpoint but probably the least important. Memorial Day weekend is my true first checkpoint. Stats can still fluctuate greatly with a great week, so you still need to be careful of overhyping or walking away from players too soon. The one thought I try to utilize this early is to look for a sell high candidate and see the type of return I can get for him.
Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): A month-end is always a good time to do periodic check – primarily, I’m just comparing my team’s actual rate stats in various categories to what I was expecting – if there’s a shortfall, deciding whether it’s due to injuries, underperformance, etc. The most challenging thing (for me, at least) is to stay patient with hitters who’ve underperformed year-to-date and resist the urge to spite-drop or spite-trade them.