The Touts were asked: In redraft leagues, under what conditions, and what would it take to trade away Shohei Ohtani?
Mike Alexander (Razzball, @Roto_Wan): The only way I’m dealing Ohtani is if I’m in the bottom third of the league. You need a compelling offer, too, of course. He’s too much of a late season hammer in so many categories for me to let him walk if I’m in the hunt currently. If you’re losing major ground, then you need to shoot the moon in a trade.
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, ): I first have to get over the idea that I will be giving up more than I am getting (in a vacuum). So a trade would have to fill a need (or needs) in a way that gives me more points than Ohtani will lose. Would have to be a fairly unique situation to do that–like I have a massive surplus of runs, RBIs, BA/OBP, HRs and really only need bumps in steals and saves to move up.
Ryan Bloomfield (BaseballHQ, @RyanBHQ): Agree with what Doug has as well. One larger point I like to make, however, is to still not overreact to category balance this early in the season. You could get into a game of whack-a-mole where you think you’re good in HR, you trade Ohtani for SB and Saves (just making this up), and then two months later you realize that now you need power. There’s still a lot of season left to where trading from a strength could create a new weakness by season’s end. I typically wait until August to attack and balance categories, unless you have an obvious deficiency/injury somewhere right now.
Glenn Colton (SiriusXM Fantasy, @GlennColton1): Let’s be honest, it will be very hard to part with Ohtani. First, fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun. You know what is fun? Getting jazzed every time you turn on the TV and see Ohtani at bat for your team! You know what else is fun? Watching Ohtani throw 99mph and be nasty on the mound (which I think will happen this year). All that said, no one remembers second place. So, you have to do a careful study of the categories for sure but Ohtani is the one player who might help you if you need hitting or pitching. Thus, I think the only way I would trade Ohtani is if I have two or three holes and someone offers me three A- players who will sub in for two of my C- starters and my one A+++ starter (Ohtani). [Full disclosure, the only way I actually trade Ohtani is I play with Rick Wolf in almost all my leagues and he is more of a daredevil than I am!
Brian Feldman (FantasyBaseballAuctioneer, @FanBBAuctioneer): To me the toughest part is separating the head from the heart…math vs. emotion. From an instinctual standpoint, I would have to be absolutely overwhelmed (at least on the surface) to trade him at all. But if the projected math shows that I would almost assuredly move up in the standings to compete for a flag then I’d have to do it. But that would be the only scenario…I’d rather end up in 9th place with Ohtani then 5th place without him. He’s just too much fun to watch and root for. But 4th vs. 1st is another matter.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (ESPN, @SultanofStat): I’m a firm believer in the mantra that every player has a price, but Ohtani’s is about as high as I can ever remember, akin to Pedro Martinez-in-2000 good, except without the injury fear that comes with a pitcher. (And yes, if Ohtani does resume pitching, as I expect he will, that same fear will surface with him, though I think we tend to exaggerate it.) As Glenn said, it’d have to be multiple A-minus types to plug holes on a needy roster, or if I had a glut of corners and could slide one into the vacated DH while addressing 2-3 other spots, or… maybe Aaron Judge? Speaking of which, who is this Tristan and why on earth would he trade Aaron Judge?
Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski): First of all, anyone is tradable. We don’t have to appease a fan base or management or sponsors. You don’t have to market your team. We just want the numbers. Two, make sure everyone knows your superstar is available. You want to explore every option, and when a buzzy player is available, maybe a bidding war breaks out. Finally, when it comes to the stars, if the offer isn’t an obvious yes then it’s probably NO. Don’t talk yourself into something.
Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): Trade analysis and decision making is the same whether you’re trading Ohtani or anyone else.
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): It would take an offer that I can’t refuse to trade away Ohtani. A trade of this magnitude would include multiple players for Ohtani and you also have to factor other players that you would have to drop to balance your roster cap size. 90% of all of my trades involve being on the opposite side of a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 trade where I am trying to acquire the best player in the deal. I rarely trade away the best player in a deal. That’s my “art of the deal”.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): I would, but I’m not sure a trade is easily found. The hard part, as someone said above, is separating your head from your heart. But if you play in a competitive league, often that ability is the key to winning. I played in a league back in the dawn of time when the league’s best, most successful manager told me, “They’re just number generators. You don’t love your Excel spreadsheet (he didn’t know me that well), so don’t fall in love with your players.” And one big advantage of trading an Ohtani is the star power that could make you love him will be very appealing to a trade partner. From there, it’s an exercise in arithmetic: Build a model with the projections you trust, project the league, then transfer Ohtani’s projection from your team to the other team, and transfer what you get back to your team. If you gain in the standings, do the deal. And I think it’s safe to say that you *will* gain in the batting stats, but not very much, because Ohtani’s stats are so densely packed into his ABs. I mocked an Ohtani+Espinal for Neto+Seiya Suzuki, and the acquiring team (losing Ohtani) netted +14 Runs, +6 HR, +44 RBI, +3 SB and break even in BA. Not nothin’ and possibly useful depending on how you stand in the categories. Plus you get the rep of “the manager who traded Ohtani,” which helps in the long run. And then there’s the possibility of getting a solid SP…
Dave Adler (Baseball HQ, @daveadler01): Anyone is tradable, if the price is right. It all depends on the standings, and where you are in each category. Take a look at the offensive categories – how much ground can you give up without losing significant points? See where you can stand to gain points. Then, find an owner who has what you need, and needs what you’re trading. It’s great fun to watch Ohtani contribute to your team every night, but if you can get enough back in the trade to make a charge up in the standings…that’s even MORE fun.
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @): Someone would need to come to me with a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 blockbuster that filled two dead spots on my roster with two good or near excellent players.
Phil Hertz (Baseball HQ, @prhz50): A lot depends on league context. Is Ohtani eligible to pitch and hit? Are there daily transactions? For this exercise, let’s assume he can pitch on Monday and hit the rest of the week. That means he’s essentially two players: an MVP hitter and a former CY quality starter, who’s returning from TJ surgery and thus can’t really be counted on. To trade Ohtani, you’d need to get back someone who is a borderline MVP hitter plus two guys who would be significant upgrades on players you are rostering. It’s certainly possible some other manager could come up with something, but coming up with a package that works will be difficult. That’s especially true if the league doesn’t have a deep player pool penetration, making it harder to come up with those “significant upgrades”.
Anthony Aniano (RotoBaller/SiriusXM Fantasy, @AanianoFantasy): Trading Ohtani is almost impossible to do and the only way I do it is to fill multiple holes in my lineup with high end players. I would want a number 1 starter and at least one, possible two plug and play top tier hitters. Thus, it is tough to get equal value and on the other side of the trade it will be equally tough to meet the demands
Andy Andres (BaseballHQ, @sabermetrics101): It would be really unlikely to make happen, it is all category and standings dependent.
Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman): There are two situations where I’d consider dealing Ohtani. First, if I’ve somehow already accumulated enough of a lead that I’m beginning to think about sacrificing some ceiling to raise my floor, dealing away a player who’s about to do what nobody else has ever done (embarking on a rehab assignment at the MLB level as a pitcher while also being an everyday DH) could be a way to do that. Second, if I’m really struggling and have multiple holes on my roster, there could be a mutually beneficial deal with a top team who wants to consolidate multiple very good players into one great one. Obviously, in both cases, the return would have to be astronomical.
Scott Chu (Pitcher List, @ifthechufits): I can set a price, sure – the question is whether any single team has the assets to do it without going bankrupt. in just the right scenario, you might be in need of a total overhaul with Ohtani as your only valuable veteran and there JUST SO HAPPENS to be a team with a loaded farm system that is in need of a star bat to take the leap AND is willing to cough up the dough. I find this unlikely, but not impossible. if that were the case, I would be pushing for multiple top 10 overall fantasy prospects AND a keynote young MLBer who is a top 15 overall-ish bat. is it crazy? Yes. In Dynasty, multiple top 15 overall prospects AND a top 20 overall MLBer under 27. the question for me, though, is less about the price and more about there actually being a team with the assets that’s interested in that kind of move. In redraft, I don’t see how I make that move without a top 6-8 player plus a meaningful piece being there that fits a crucial need