Tout Table: Rebounding Pitchers

As we all prepare for the trade frenzy, the Touts were asked:

Who has the best chance of reverting to form, Lucas Giolito, Jose Berrios or Trevor Rogers?

(Please note, the question was posed prior to Rogers being placed on the IL)

CJ Kaltenbach (Fantasy Guru, @TheSeigeDFS): Lucas Giolito has the best chance to reverting to form mostly because his bad raw stats right now are thanks to a ton of bad BABIP luck (.349). Once that starts to turn around, he’ll have fewer runners on base which will help the walk rate and improve the strand rate. His xFIP right now is basically identical to 2021 (3.76 in 2022 vs 3.75 in 2021) so should be optimistic he turns it around soon.

Nick Pollack (Pitcher List, @PitcherList): It’s definitely not Trevor Rogers for me – he hasn’t had his changeup and slider working consistently since the start of last year – and it’s close between Lucas Giolito and José Berríos. The latter has been improving over the last month with his curveball and Berríos often finds a way to normalize across a full season. Meanwhile Giolito has now gone three starts hovering 92 mph. Without that strong fastball, Giolito’s struggles are likely to continue as it sets the foundation for his elite changeup.

Grey Albright (RazzBall, @razzball): Giolito

Fred Zinkie (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @FredZinkieMLB): Most are saying Giolito, so I will go in a different direction and take Berrios, who may have already started to turn things around by posting a 3.41 ERA and a 36:6 K:BB ratio in five July starts. That feels pretty much like what we expected of the right-hander at the start of the season.

Perry Van Hook (Mastersball, @): I would say Giolito is the best bet. He will have both good games and some not so good for the rest of the season but the upside is also the highest of the three

Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): I’ll say Berrios. He has the skill set to rebound and has had some flashes of dominance recently. Working against him is the schedule and a heavy does of hitter heavy AL East teams.

Scott White (CBS Fantasy Sports, @CBSScottWhite): It kind of seems like Berrios already has with his strong month of July, so I’ll say him. I’m on the fence about Giolito. His xFIP is about the same as last year and his K/9 remains high, but his velocity, spin and whiffs are all down a bit. Those are generally the markers I look at when judging whether a pitcher has declined. As for Rogers, he turned back into a pumpkin even before the end of last year. We were basing a lot on three incredible months that are now far in the rearview mirror. I’ve been dumping him for 50 cents on the dollar even in dynasty leagues.

Seth Trachtman (NBC Sports Edge, @sethroto): Trevor Rogers still looks lost with his control, so this debate comes down to Giolito vs. Berrios. The peripherals show likely improvement for both pitchers, but the White Sox extremely favorable schedule the rest of the way gives Giolito a better chance to get on track. Giolito lines up against the likes of KC, Texas, and Detroit over his next three outings, and it’s hard to imagine an easier schedule than what the White Sox face in September. The team has a heavy dose of weak AL Central matchups, along with Oakland and Colorado (at home) sprinkled in. This seems like an obvious point, but Giolito’s ERA is nearly two runs better (4.20) with an 11.5 K/9 in games vs. sub-.500 teams this season. With the smaller sample size, schedule matters.

Eric Cross (Fantrax, @EricCross04): Can I say none? I’m fairly confident that we’ve probably seen the best season for each of these arms, but I do think that Giolito and Berrios are better than what they’ve shown. With Berrios, he was just always a bit overrated and now has to deal with the robust American League East on a regular basis. Many of Gioloto’s ERA indicators are much better than his surface stats, so he’s my pick here I suppose.

Vlad Sedler (FTNfantasy, @rotogut): Nice grouping here because the easy answer would be “trust none of them”. If I had to pick one to have the strongest rest-of-season, it would be Berrios. Strikeouts have been a boon and he’s cut his barrel rate in half lately (6% over his last six starts, 12.6% over his first 14 starts.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): I’ll WAG Rogers since his issues seem to be mostly mechanical. Echoing sentiments from others, I wouldn’t bother trying to buy low on any of them.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): Solely on a wishful-thinking basis, I’ll say Berrios

Dr. Roto (DrRoto.com, @DrRoto): Torn here, so I will cop out and say both Giolito and Berrios will revert to form and Rogers will continue to struggle.

Paul Sporer (Fangraphs, ESPN Fantasy Sports, @Sporer): I’ll go Berrios as he’s shown more glimpses of his good self than the other two this year and has a longer history of success, too.

Alex Chamberlain (Rotographs, @DolphHauldhagen): Didn’t expect to say Berríos, but, Berríos, primarily because Rogers and Giolito are having pitch shape issues (CH and SL, respectively), whereas Berríos’ specs are largely unchanged. Not that pitch shapes are the be-all/end-all, but it helps explain why those pitches—and, thus, those pitchers—haven’t been successful. The question doesn’t specify reverting to form within 2022 or, like, ever, and I don’t think it’s off the table that Rogers and Gio find their CH and SL again. But I think Berríos has less to claw back this year than they do.

Jock Thompson (Baseball HQ, @JOCKatHQ): We’re in ride-the-hot-hand territory entering August. That would be Berrios.

Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): If not for his last two starts, it would easily be Giolito. He still has the most upside but also the most risk. Berrios is the safest bet right now, but at a lower ceiling. Rogers’ ceiling is pretty much the floor for everyone else. PQS logs rule.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy): My ego says Giolito because I couldn’t possibly have picked a guy this crappy to win the Cy Young this year, but I’ll be sensible and lean Berrios who has, at least, flashed some talent this year.

Matt Williams (TheGameDay.com, @MattWi77iams): Berrios seems to not only have less issues to work through than the others, but already seems to have turned a corner in July. So I will go with Jose Berrios.

Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Not Rogers, probably not Giolito, since he’s been more of an innings eater of late. Berrios actually has been pretty good over the last month.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): I think I’m most optimistic about Giolito. He has the highest K%, lowest BB% and the best FIP/xFIP of the three. That said, I also think Berrios is probably going to be better rest of season and just picked him up in the 12-team mixed league where I need innings. I am not as optimistic about Rogers.

Brad Johnson (Patreon/BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): Rogers is on the IL with back spasms now so I rescind my WAG. Let’s say Berrios. Tough schedule though… I still prefer none of them.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): Giolito’s SIERA is a run and a half below his actual ERA, as he’s been BABIP’d to death. That can’t continue for much longer, especially given his history. He’s the easy call between the three, even though Berrios’ SIERA is also significantly below his ERA. However, Berrios’ strikeout rate has tumbled, so even an improved ERA could still result in disappointing fantasy value versus pre-season expectations.

Frank Stampfl (Fantasy Pros, @Roto_Frank): I have legitimate concerns over both Lucas Giolito and Jose Berrios but I think it’s more likely Berrios returns to form this season. He mostly looks like himself, albeit allowing a bunch of hard contact with a reduced swinging strike rate. Giolito just has so many things working against him right now from a velo dip to lack of control to home runs allowed. I almost wonder if Giolito isn’t right physically this season.

Zach Steinhorn (CreativeSports2, @zachsteinhorn): Maybe I’m biased because he’s on three of my teams and I’m desperately rooting for him to revert to form but I’ll say Berrios. The WHIP is still problematic but he’s pitching much better lately, allowing three runs or fewer in each of his last five starts with 36 strikeouts in 29 innings. With Berrios, at least we’re seeing clear signs of improvement. The same cannot be said for Giolito and Rogers.

Mike Sheets (ESPN, @MikeASheets): Give me Berrios, who has at least been showing some positive signs of late. With only two months left in the regular season, time is running out for a turnaround, so I’ll take the guy who has already been delivering some positive value over his last handful of starts.

Joe Sheehan (The Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, @joe_sheehan): Rogers is the easy “no,” given that he has the shortest track record and there were mild indications that last year was a peak. Between the other two…I’ll take Berrios, because he’s already well on his way. 3.41 ERA/3.15 FIP in July, six QS in his last ten, and a seventh that missed by an out. I’ll bet on that for the next two months.

Greg Jewett (Fantasy Alarm, @gjewett9): Even before the start against the Tigers, I leaned towards Berrios on this one. Trust the Blue Jays getting him on track for the second half and helping fuel a strong push in the playoffs. Rogers landing on the injured list makes him the easy pass in this question and after having Giolito on multiple rosters last year, he was an avoid this season. This remains true.

Brian Entrekin (Benched with Bubba, @bdentrek): This is a tricky one. I lean Berrios who has shown signs of life of late, especially at home. The strikeouts have improved and he is keeping the ball in the ballpark. Can’t say the same for Giolito who struggles to get through five everyday and Rogers is so broken he is now on the IL. Give me Berrios, but it does not feel great.

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