Welcome to the first of many Tout Tables. We’ll be asking the Touts for their opinions on a variety of fantasy baseball topics.
Before revealing this week’s question, I (Todd Z) owe the Touts a big apology. This was supposed to be posted a couple of weeks ago, but life got in the way – on and off the field. Everything is fine, and I promise to be more timely. Some of the following answer may seem out of date, or hopefully prescient.
The question is. Which players have started surprisingly strong? Do you expect them to keep it up?
Matt Cederholm (BaseballHQ, @TheBigHurtHQ): Robert Suarez felt like the closer nobody wanted. And with a 3.21 WHIP (WHIP!) in the spring, who could blame them? He’s been laser hot now, with a 36% K-BB%, albeit in only 4 IP. I don’t expect him to be a top-5 closer, but he should be solid in 2025. Obviously, Wilyer Abreu isn’t going to hit .483 this season. But he still needs to prove he can hit LHP before we get too excited about his progress.
Matt Truss (Razzball, @MattTruss): Kristian Campbell – Absolutely, yes. The only reason Campbell wasn’t hyped more coming into the season was playing time concerns, once it was announced he made the OD roster, it’s all systems go for the kid. His hit tool alone will keep him relvevant, add in some pop and some speed, and we are easily looking at the top rookie for 2025.
Chris Clegg (Pitcher List, @RotoClegg): Wilyer Abreu’s start to the 2025 season may not be surprising to some, given his strong rookie season in 2024, but the surprise is more from the standpoint that he missed over a month of time this spring with a GI illness. He lost weight, and given the missed time, I did not expect him to start off the year strong. He has done the opposite of what I expected, hitting the cover off the ball with high-end exit velocities and impressive approach and contact skills. It is hard to argue that it is not sustainable, so I do expect him to keep it up.
Sky Dombroske (Fantistics Insider Baseball, @SkyDombroske): I believe in the hot starts of Lars Nootbaar and Ben Rice, both of whom are hitting leadoff to help prop up their values, but the hot start of speedy Kyren Paris seems a lot more fortunate to me…color me skeptical there.
Mike Podhorzer (FanGraphs, @MikePodhorzer): It’s far easier to evaluate a pitcher’s start, because we could point to velocity and/or pitch mix changes to judge what’s real and what’s not. A pair of Hunters, Greene and Brown, plus Jesús Luzardo, are three starters off to strong starts that have experienced velocity spikes. If these new velocity levels are maintained, they could also exceed their strikeout rate projections, at the very least, as well as their ratio forecasts.
Frank Ammirante (RotoBaller, @FAmmiranteTFJ): Brice Turang has been a major surprise so far, putting up a 13.3% barrel rate (up from 2.4% in 2024) with two homers already. It will be interesting to see if he can get to 15+ HR with this increased bat speed. It’s safe to say we’re going to see a career-high in homers.
Phil Hertz (Baseball HQ, @prhz50): Nick Lodolo is the real thing – he could be in the top 10 in the Cy Young voting at the end of the year. Not sure whether it qualifies as a surprise, but Pete Alonso is locked in and may have his best season in 3 years.
Mike Carter (RotoBaller, Fantrax, @mdrc0508, @mikecarter0508.bsky.social): Kris Bubic has started off realy well, and I do expect him to continue to perform at a high level. The seeds were sown at the end of last year, when he struck out 32.2% of batters and limited hard contact out of the bullpen.This season, in two starts, he has two wins, 16 strikeouts and a 0.71 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Will that continue? Obviously not; regression to the mean is a monster we all must deal with every season. But there is no reason his breakout cannot continue.
Derek Carty (RotoGrinders, @DerekCarty): According to THE BAT X, these are the five players most overperforming their estimated underlying talent level thus far: Wilyer Abreu, Kyle Tucker, Anthony Volpe, Nico Hoerner, Lars Nootbaar. No, I do not expect anyone outperforming their projected fantasy value by $20+ (or, in the case of Abreu, $40+!) to keep it up. Sorry not sorry.
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @): Tyler Soderstrom and Wilyer Abreu are the hitters starting off surprisingly strong. Neither one will keep it up but both are likely to outearn their ADP. The pitchers who jump out are Jack Leiter and Martin Perez. We know the deal with Perez; he is capable of some strong starts but will wind up hovering around replacement level at year’s end. Leiter won’t keep this up (even if his blister issue turns out to be minor) but like Abreu and Soderstrom it feels safe to guess that he’ll outearn his preseason ADP of 403.
Steve Gardner (USA TODAY Sports, @SteveAGardner, @steveagardner.bsky.social): After several years of waiting for Spencer Torkelson to deliver on his 1.01 potential, he’s looking like that guy so far this season. Of course, a .474 BABIP will do that. Although he’s still striking out a lot (31.7%), he’s been much more selective at the plate this season, with six walks in 45 PAs contributing to a .400 OBP. Six of his 11 hits have been for extra bases (4 doubles, 2 homers) so the .953 OPS looks great. The question is whether these gains are sustainable — and whether he has a regular spot in the lineup once Parker Meadows and Gleyber Torres return. Might be time to sell high.
Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotoBuzzGuy): There are two names I am specifically watchng right now after their hot starts — Ben Rice of the Yankees and Tigers 1B Spencer Torkelson. Just a glance at RIce’s Statcast numbers will blow you away as he ranks among the very best in every offensive category (including nosehair). Can he continue? Maybe not at such a torrid pace, but if you look at his numbers between 2023 and 2024, you’ll see that he went 40-20 with an average around .285 or .290 over 152 MiLB games. The real queston will be playing time because when he does start to slow down and Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu and Cody Bellinger are all healthy, will he see the consistent at-bats he needs to keep this going? As for Torkelson, he’s apparently changed his mechanics and overall approach at the plate. He looks rejuvenated which is funny to sat about a hitter so young, but after a very rough first two seasons, it looks like he is piecing it together finally and showing us why he was a first-overall selection. I will bet on him to continue, but will always wonder in the back of my mind if he could be Detroit’s new Chris Shelton. We’ll see in May, won’t we?
Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros, @thewonkypenguin, @thewonkypenguin.bsky.social): I have plenty of shares of Jordan Westburg, so it is quite pleasant to see his hot start. His 15.2% barrel rate and 45.5% hard-hit rate support his power numbers, and his 15.9% strikeout rate is encouraging (career 22.3%). He has three home runs but only four RBI, and I expect his counting stats to rapidly improve with the return of Gunnar Henderson. On the pitching side, Jesus Luzardo has looked untouchable through two starts, but I have concerns about his elevated strikeout rate and LOB% indicate there could be regression coming. I’d be intrigued by what level of hitter he could garner in a trade should there be an area of need on my team right now.
Scott Chu (Pitcher List, @ifthechufits): GET TORK’D NERDS! WOOOOO! In all seriousness, his early success is worth chasing if only because we’ve seen him be a 30 home run hitter before. The Tigers desperately need power in this lineup, especially from the right side, so if he keeps producing expect him to stick. The mechanical change is intriguing, but the truth is that we need to see him make adjustments in-season when he hits his first slump or two before we’ll have a good idea of what we have here. That’s also true of Ben Rice – we’ve seen Rice be hot for a few weeks before, but what we DIDN’T see was him rebound after his first tastes of failure. You obviously need to take initial action before we learn those things, but if you’re trying to determine when to “fully buy in”, it’s when they rebound after a slump
Chris Torres (Pitcher List, Fantasy Pros, @TorresTakes): This Kyren Paris thing is getting silly now. Yes, he has an unsustainable 50% HR/FB rate to go along with a .429 BABIP. Yes, the K rate has hovered around 30% throughout his minor league career. But the man is producing now and I’m filled with regret that I didn’t target him more aggressively in any of my FAAB leagues. At a minimum, he should remain a premium stolen base asset while also providing non-zero power. Reportedly, Paris worked with Aaron Judge’s swing coach in the offseason, which may be a factor in the 63% hard-hit rate he has displayed thus far. Paris will walk a fine line in terms of his contact rate (still only at 64% this season) but the category juice should play as long as the PT is there.
Zach Steinhorn (Steinhorn’s Universe on Substack, @zachsteinhorn): Kyle Manzardo wasn’t even drafted in many mixed leagues this season following a highly disappointing 2024. But his strong start to 2025 suggests that he could at the very least be a useful power contributor going forward. The Guardians haven’t been hesitant to start him at first base when they want to give Carlos Santana time off from playing the field. This is great news for Manzardo’s fantasy value as he should gain 1B eligibility in all leagues very soon. I think we’re at the point where he needs to be picked up in mixed leagues of 12+ teams.
Vlad Sedler (FTN Fantasy, @rotogut): The player who has surprised me the most with their quick start is Diamondbacks shortstop, Geraldo Perdomo. He owned a sub-two percent barrel rate and was mired at the bottom of his lineup, but has moved his way up into key spots (first, second) while Ketel Marte is sidelined. Perdomo has a couple of homers and has driven in 13 runs in his first 13 games. Perdomo will likely fall back to the bottom third of the batting order when Marte returns, but will likely remain fantasy-worthy in deeper formats (15-teamers) for the rest of the season. He can steal double-digit bases, score a bunch of runs and produce a batting average well above MLB-average.
Shelly Verougstraete (Pitcher List Podcast Network, @shellyv643.bsky.social): I’m going to take this question a little differently and say Manny Machado. He is solid as they come but as I type this he has six swipes, which puts him on a pace of 69 steals if he played in all the games for the rest of the season. I doubt he will keep it up but it looks llike he will get very close to his career high, which was 20 stolen bases back in 2015.
Brian Feldman (FantasyBaseballAuctioneer, @FanBBAuctioneer, @fanbbauctioneer.bsky.social): Nobody has mentioned Carson Kelly, who is on a shockingly hot tear to start the season. Already with a half dozen homers and 18 RBI, plus hitting for the cycle. And the surface numbers are supported by the skills (.371 BA vs. .415 xBA) and a stunning .531 OBA. While only claiming half the playing time so far, I can foresee him taking over and getting the majority of ABs this season.