How much, if at all, do you rely on the Vegas lines, odds and props when it comes to researching your DFS lineups?
Brian Walton, www.mastersball.com, @B_Walton: Zero, none. I never even look at them.
Tim McCullough, www.rotoexperts.com, @Tim_RotoExperts: Aside from the expected run totals for the games, I don’t pay much attention to the Vegas lines. I prefer to go with handedness splits, park factors and stats in general. If the split stats point to a good matchup, I’m inclined to go with that even if the Vegas lines disagree.
Jeff Boggis, www.FantasyFootballEmpire.com, @JeffBoggis: I think that the Vegas lines are one of the most powerful tools Touts can use in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). The first number I analyze is the number line. The further away from 100 the number is, the bigger a favorite that pitcher is projected to be that evening. The closer to -200, the closer to a lock in the eyes of Las Vegas. I use this as a win counts for a great percentage of a pitcher’s fantasy points score. So the higher the likelihood of the win, the higher the likelihood of a good score. I also look at the total runs scored as that has a negative impact on a pitcher’s fantasy points. If I see several poor pitchers and want to go with stacking hitters all on the same team, I will look at the line for total runs scored and make a decision based on this information.
Patrick Davit, www.baseballhq.com, @patrickdavitt: I know I should pay more attention to them, but I don’t really do much more than eyeball them en route to my picks.
Nando DiFino, www.rotoexperts.com, @nandodifino: At this point, I have a pretty solid handle on who is good, which parks produce runs, and most of the factors contributing to the line. It’s kind of like knowing everything that goes into a cheeseburger but still checking the menu to make sure it says” cheeseburger.” I don’t rely on the lines, but if something doesn’t add up on paper like it does in my head, I’ll explore a little deeper.
Lawr Michaels, www.mastersball.com, @lawrmichaels: Never look. Don’t even want to know or be influenced.
Chris Liss, www.rotowire.com, @Chris_Liss: I look at the run totals and game odds for stacks to target. Sometimes, I’ll stack different combos of players in game with an O/U of 8 or 8.5 and avoid the 9-plus to get more unique lineups in.
Gene McCaffrey, www.wiseguys.com, @gene2323: I don’t rely on the odds but I pay attention to them and look for differences between my views and theirs. When there is a significant difference I rethink my conclusions, and sometimes change my mind. The oddsmakers are very good, but any team can win a baseball game, any pitcher can throw a gem or get hammered, and any hitter can hit two home runs tonight. I pay no attention at all to daily props, DFS is a superior format for those bets. You don’t have to be right on every long-shot.
Peter Kreutzer, www.askrotoman.com, @kroyte:
I just started playing the daily game this year, and early in the season I didn’t pay attention to the Vegas odds. But for good and productive reasons I started to look at better information, and the Vegas lines reflect common opinion. This isn’t wisdom, but it does often reflect some sort of information that is hard to glean from tables of stats.
So I start with the Vegas line, for starting pitchers, and look at games with high run expectations. This isn’t fool proof, and I deviate freely, but the Vegas numbers are a good place to start looking for a stack (if you’re prepping quickly).
Which I think you should be, unless you’re playing high stakes, in which case a whole different set of rules apply.
Charlie Wiegert, www.CDMSports.com, @GFFantasySports: I rely on them and think they are a necessary part of the research needed to select your lineup. The line is the best indicator of the pitcher’s chances to get a win, and the over/under number is a great way to find the games in which a lot of runs might be scored. If the number is 8 or higher, I look for value plays,and if the odds highly favor one team, I look for the value players on that team.
Scott Swanay, www.fantasybaseballsherpa.com, @Fantasy_Sherpa: I’ll look at the runs’ over/under and game odds for a second opinion to make sure I’m not overlooking something obvious. However, when it comes to DFS, Vegas info isn’t much more helpful than horoscopes and biorhythm charts would be in eliminating the inherent randomness. Not even the smarties who set odds for the sports books can predict when Felix Hernandez is going to implode and give up 8 runs in a third of an inning to the Astros or when Kirk Nieuwenhuis is going to hit three home runs in one game.
Here’s my longer answer.
Since I’ve begun playing, both in DFS baseball and football, I know there are many that rely heavily on the Vegas lines. As has been described, the information from Vegas can help elucidate the favored pitchers, how many implied run each team will score as well as some strikeout predictions for pitchers. From my end, I’m getting this exact information when I distill my yearly player projections into daily projections based on the factors I feel are relevant. So now it comes down to who’s better, me or Vegas? Considering Vegas managed to build a city with all sorts of beautiful buildings and flashing lights smack dab in the middle of a desert and I’m a 52-year old guy renting a 3-room add-on to a house in Milford, MA, I’ll give the edge to Vegas. But still, I’ve been stubborn about including adding the Vegas info into my research. Well, until now. Don’t tell anyone but last weekend I took a trip to New York City to attend a DFS fantasy football seminar. While I learned a few other pertinent things that transcend all the sports, one of the main take-home messages was I need to incorporate Vegas more. Why? Those that do this for a living swear by it and if it’s good enough for them, it’s good enough for me. That said, I’m not going to abandon my method but rather embellish it. My colleague Wiseguy Gene has it right. Look for the outliers and do some additional research. The one caveat is (and I admit this is far from my area of expertise) Vegas sets the lines to attract even money on both sides which maximizes their vig. Sometimes what they think will happen and where the set the lines are a little different.
Before we call it a day, be sure to follow along with the second week of the final phase of Tout Daily. Three more Touts have their sights set on the Golden Ticket and a chance at a cool $1000 in the Tout Daily Championship.
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