TOUT MIXED: Minnix Holds Out Hope

NICK MINNIX: I could expand on my needs in order to overcome Cory Schwartz’s 16-point lead in Tout Mixed.

I could wish that two teams pass Cory in WHIP and another duo passes him in strikeouts. It wouldn’t hurt if one team within striking distance of him in runs jumped ahead of him, nor would it if he lost the point in batting average on which he has such a tenuous hold.

I could hope that my team gains a couple of points in WHIP. That’s definitely possible.

I could yearn to see my virtual club steal 4 more bases than his does this week so that it regains the lead I’d had in that cat for a good while.

Aaaaannnnnd … I could mention that in the next three days my team needs to hit 16 more home runs than his does. I could also state the obvious – that if my team makes up 16 ding dongs, it’s practically certain to accrue the 9 RBIs it needs to overtake him in that category as well. Plus, I’d pass one other team in each instance!

But then I could do the math and realize that, even if all that were to happen, I’d still come up a couple of points short. So, what I really need, only “Footloose” can provide.

And, I need to congratulate Cory on putting together a hell of a team.

TOUT AL: What it will take

With three games left Larry Schechter has a three point lead over Jeff Erickson. In FAAB this week Erickson claimed Al Albuquerque, but didn’t get him. Schechter replaced three pitchers (Andy Pettitte, Erasmo Ramirez and Jason Vargas) with Maicer Izturis (Swing!), and two pitchers, Joel Peralta and Nate Jones. How do the two teams stack up in points?

RUNS: Schechter could lose one point (he’s up 3), while Erickson could gain one (he’s down 2).

HR: Schechter could lose 1/2 or gain 1 1/2 (he’s tied and down 1), while Erickson could gain 1/2 or lose 1 1/2 (he’s tied and up 1).

RBI: Schechter could lose one (he’s up 4), while Erickson is set.

SB: Schechter is set, while Erickson is up 2.

BA: Schechter could lose 1, he’s up .0003, while Erickson is probably set.

WINS: Erickson is .07 ahead of Schechter.

WHIP: Both are probably set.

SAVES: Schechter could lose 1 (he’s up 1), while Erickson is set.

WINS: Schechter could lose 1 (he’s up 1), and so could Erickson (he’s up 1).

K: Schechter could lose 1 or maybe gain 1 (he’s up 1, he’s down 7), while Erickson is set.

SUMMARY:

Team           PTS          HI            LOW
Schechter  89.5          92              83
Erickson    86.5         88              84

It doesn’t look like Erickson can overtake Schechter this week on his own, but Larry is going to have plenty of opportunities to lose this one.

We Have a Race!

A week ago Larry Schechter seemed to have reestablished his lead over Jeff Erickson in Tout Wars AL. Larry dominant lead in the first half had withered in August but grown in September, but now, with four ML games left, Jeff has clawed back into striking distance. Maybe. Here’s what the leaders are thinking on the night of September 29th:

JEFF ERICKSON: My quest to become the one Mike Trout owner to not win an AL-only league is going quite swimmingly tonight. Seeing Max Scherzer’s start get scratched wasn’t pleasant.

LARRY SCHECHTER: This is unlike any other time of the year, in that I am paying attention to where ever anything in the standings is close for me or Jeff.  i.e., if Ron has a starter going, I hope he gets a win but not too many K’s.

The highlight last night was Infante hitting a HR, which my offense desperately needed, and which blew a possible win for Diamond and knocked him out of the game…which was good because Diamond is owned Mike Siano, who is just one win behind me.

My offense is limping to the end here, with tons of injuries.  Besides Big Papi and Markakis, who really hurt me, lately Asdrubal keeps missing games here and there; and Gutierrez and Molina just got hurt this week.

Two Sundays ago I FAAB’d Bourgeious instead of Endy Chavez, and that was the wrong choice.  Endy played almost every day and did better.  So this past Sunday I FAAB’d Endy and benched Bourgeious, and all of a sudden Endy’s on the bench.  He’s only started once so far this week.

 

TOUT AL’s Larry Schechter Talks About It

For much of the season Tout AL’s 2011 Champ has been leading the league again, but during the summer Jeff Erickson closed the gap and at times has been in the lead. Larry answered…

What are your chances of winning as a percentage?   48%  (Jeff 47%, others 5%)

What percentage of your success this year was based on your draft?  90%

What percentage was based on trading?  0%

What percentage was based on waiver pickups?  10%

What was the best thing that happened to your team this year.   That I happened to have Soriano, which minimized the loss of Rivera.

What was the worst thing? And how did you get over it? 

#1 worst)  after trading Hamilton, Big Papi went down immediately and hasn’t come back–and probably won’t come back.  That has really hurt my HR/RBI, which were in great shape when I made the trade.  I haven’t gotten over it, and it’s a big reason my lead disappeared.

#2 worst) Romero was a distaster.  Picking up Miguel Gonzalez and Guthrie has helped…(hopefully in 4 weeks I can still say that they helped.)

Any other comments, stories, observations, jokes you would like to tell about this year’s Tout Wars season? I wonder if Wolf/Colton would have taken Big Papi instead of Hamilton?  That would have helped me immensely.  One of the reasons I offered Hamilton instead of Papi is because I felt Hamilton was a bigger injury risk; and being in 1st, I wanted to be risk averse.

 

Tout NL Contenders Speak!

I asked the Contending and Out of It Tout owners some questions, and got back some answers. Here are the answers from the Contenders in Tout Wars NL:

TRISTAN COCKCROFT

What are your chances of winning as a percentage? 45 (keeping in mind that I’d say at least four teams are still very much “in it” — or have a 10+ percent chance of victory).

What percentage of your success this year was based on your draft? 90, maybe more. Eleven of my 12 most valuable individual players this season were original draft picks, and two other current starters were also draftees.

What percentage was based on trading? 8. Juan Pierre was a critical pickup, and Shane Victorino and Ryan Dempster have (so far) proved important, but I can’t forget that all three were acquired for players who were original draftees.

What percentage was based on waiver pickups? 2. I can’t entirely discount the contributions of Erik Kratz, D.J. LeMahieu, Andrelton Simmons, Brad Lincoln, Jonny Venters or Mitchell Boggs, but does any one of those names really drive a team? I say no, being that not a single one has contributed more than 125 useful AB or 60 useful innings (so far).

What was the best thing that happened to your team this year. Aroldis Chapman discovered his command. There probably hasn’t been any one more important piece of my team than Chapman; he has stabilized my ratios and his emergence at closer afforded me the ability to trade two closers, Santiago Casilla and J.J. Putz, to fill other needs.

What was the worst thing? And how did you get over it? If it’s not Vance Worley’s elbow problems, then surely it’s the revolving door I’ve had at the middle infield spots. How did I get over it? Well, Martin Prado gained 2B eligibility, which helped, and LeMahieu has been a serviceable pickup. But consider that this season, I’ve used Prado, LeMahieu, Matt Downs, Freddy Galvis, Ronny Cedeno, Jack Wilson, Alex Gonzalez, Jean Segura, Simmons and Emmanuel Burriss between 2B/MI. That’s right, 10 different players for two spots. It’d sure be nice if Simmons could return this weekend at anything close to the form he showed before getting hurt!

PETER KREUTZER

What percentage of your success this year was based on your draft? 55 percent

What percentage was based on trading? 35 percent

What percentage was based on waiver pickups? 10 percent.

What was the best thing that happened to your team this year. My pitchers for the most part worked out, and if I’d executed on draft day and taken a closer instead of Jurrjens and Wandy Rodriguez, maybe I would have a lead at this point. The other big plus this year were some Rockies taken on reserve or during waivers. Tyler Colvin, Chris Nelson and Josh Rutledge didn’t cost me anything but some aggressive claiming, and have bolstered an offense that misfired from the get go.

What was the worst thing? And how did you get over it? My hitting draft was awful. I hit on Jason Hayward and Buster Posey, but everyone else (Gaby Sanchez and Chris Heisey particularly) either stunk or got off to a slow start. Eventually Aramis Ramirez and Drew Stubbs came around, and I was able to add Bryce Harper and Carlos Quentin in a trade, and the team banged in August. If it keeps it up in September maybe I can get to 95-97 points.

The other issue was a trade I made in June. There wasn’t much of a power market for Juan Pierre, but I had such a lead in steals I knew I had to trade him or Emilio Bonifacio. Unfortunately Bonifacio was on the DL, so I eventually traded PIerre to Tristan Cockcroft for one of the best closers in the NL to that point, Santiago Casilla. Unbelieveably, after two and a half years of excellent relief work (I didn’t care about saves so much as clean ERA and WHIP) Casilla began crashing from the first game he was on my team. And Pierre ran and ran for Cockcroft. The difference in that deal may end up being the difference between first and second, if that’s the way we finish.

DEREK CARTY

What are your chances of winning as a percentage? 30%

What percentage of your success this year was based on your draft? 30%

What percentage was based on trading? 60%

What percentage was based on waiver pickups? 10%

What was the best thing that happened to your team this year? Either Ruggiano’s breakout or being able to find tons of trade partners to retool my team for the stretch run

What was the worst thing? And how did you get over it? Injuries. Lots of injuries leading to either lots of missed time or loss of PT/role upon return (Morse, Storen, Stauffer, Helton, Hernandez etc)

PHIL HERTZ

What are your chances of winning as a percentage? Less than 5 percent.

What percentage of your success this year was based on your draft? 65%

What percentage was based on trading? 10%

What percentage was based on waiver pickup s? 25%

What was the best thing that happened to your team this year. A very good reserve round draft! I took Aoki, Lombardozzi, Parnell and Arredondo. While I eventually cut Arredondo, the other three made significant positive contributions. That’s among my best reserve round draft ever – I’d say best, except in one league a long time ago, I drafted some guy named Pujols in the reserve round.

What was the worst thing? And how did you get over it? Pitching injuries – my three most expensive starters coming out of the draft were Luebke, Lilly and Nicasio, all of whom wound up out for the season (although there are a few noises that Lilly may resurface briefly this month). I tried trading, but eventually gave up when I traded for Gee two days before he wound up in the hospital. For the last few weeks, I’ve been going more and more with just relief pitchers – I’d probably have gone even more in that direction, but for the league’s minimum innings requirement. So far I’ve netted 4-6 points by sacrificing wins – I was already last in strikeouts – for whip and ERA improvement.