This week’s question: What player was the first half’s biggest surprise hitter and pitcher? How do you see them performing over the second half?
Michael Rathburn (Rotowire, @FantasyRath)
Hitter – Has to be Max Muncy for me who I snagged for $43 on 6.11. Since then he has been the 2nd best hitter in baseball behind Goldy. Of course, regression is coming but the crazy thing on Muncy is his batting eye (BB% and K%). Leads me to think he won’t fall off a cliff completely.
Pitcher – Ross Stripling. Sticking with the Dodgers theme. Hard to think where they would be without him.
Ray Flowers (Fantasy Guru Elite, @BaseballGuys)
Nick Markakis for me. From undrafted in many 15 team leagues to a top-15 OF (even better actually). The last time he was truly fantasy relevant was back in 2011, and even then, it was as a depth outfielder in mixed leagues. The last time he was a fantasy star of this magnitude was back in 2009. Thirty-four year olds in their 13th season aren’t supposed to have their career best efforts.
On the hill I’ll highlight Miles Mikolas who has gone from pitching in a foreign country to posting a WHIP of 1.03 with an ERA of 2.63 through 17 starts overnight. Hell of a first season back in the States.
Gene McCaffrey (Wise Guy Baseball, @WiseGuyGene)
Chris Davis – Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised but I am. I’ve been expecting the kind of explosion that he has exploded several times before, but a .490 OPS is beyond bad and raises doubts that he’ll ever do anything again. Still, in the leagues I own him I am holding on and holding out increasingly desperate hope.
Blake Snell – I expected good things, but more like 3.24 than 2.24, and despite his dominance I expect his final ERA to be above that 3.24. His FIP says he’s a 3.50 pitcher and I agree.
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Good surprise or bad surprise? Let’s talk terribad surprises. Hitter for me is Domingo Santana. 3 HRs, 17 RBIs, 313 OBP and a demotion–ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? I think his ADP was right around 100 or so. Good grief. Hon. mention: Jonathan Schoop, Alex Avila, Amed Rosario, Luis Valbuena.
Pitcher for me is Marcus Stroman, who single-handedly destroyed my Tout team with his 6.50 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 1 win, $-17 value. I wasn’t expecting all THAT much, but I sure wasn’t expecting THIS. And to think I like trashing Kyle Gibson and Rick Porcello. Hon. mention: Luis Castillo, Zach Godley, Jon Gray, Luke Weaver, Sonny Gray. I hate all these guys–thanks for nothing.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt)
I couldn’t decide on good surprise vs terribad, so I did both. Good hitter: I’m surprised how great Jose Ramirez is, but I’ll take Eddie Rosario. Keeping value company with Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado, and cost a third to a quarter the price. Bad hitter: I’ll agree with Gene on Chris with a “C” Davis, whose .489 OPS and 102 Ks speak for themselves.
Good pitcher: Gotta be wowed by Edwin Diaz outperforming lofty expectations YTD, but the true surprise for me is Blake Snell, which means I now agree with two of Gene’s picks. Bad pitcher: I feel Doug’s pain with Stroman, but my vote is for Chris Archer, a 4th-rounder by ADP who has returned negative value, and has as many hits allowed as Ks. Buy low? Maybe so. But for this exercise, just low.
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella)
I see a lot of people have already answered Max Muncy (which is the “right ” answer) but I’ll talk about Scooter Gennett to avoid repetition. I thought the power would be there but the batting average is the shock. I suspect Gennett can/will keep it up everywhere else but in batting average, but if he hits .280 or so ROS that’s still a nice return.
Everyone loved Josh Hader. No one thought he’d be one of the best pitchers in fantasy this year. The ability isn’t in question, but the durability and workload make me wonder if he will hold up in the second half or if the Brewers will rest him more frequently to save him for the playoffs/stretch run.
Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotobuzzGuy)
Biggest surprise hitter is a tie for me between Nick Markakis and Max Muncy. Markakis has always been a high-average guy but hasn’t sniffed 20 homers since 2008, yet now at the halfway point, he’s crushing both the power and average. The incentive of a new contract does that to a guy. Muncy is just a feel-good stroy here as he struggled to crack the lineup in Oakland and now seems to be an all-star caliber infielder with insane power. He’s reaching his physical prime here at age-27 and things seem to be clicking. I don’t see either guy being nearly as productive in the 2nd half. The All-Star break will kill the momentum and stats will normalize.
As for the most surprising pitcher, I’ll throw it to Miles Mikolas. My biggest fear was that he would be the pitching version of the 2017 Eric Thames and fall apart after the month of April. His consistency has been solid and seems to be a stabilizing factor for the Cardinals rotation. You won’t see an uptick in stats, but you will see more of the same. He’s got the maturity and mental make-up to stay on his current path.
Perry Van Hook (Mastersball)
I would pick Muncy over Markakis, though both are worthy and helping season long fantasy players. Markakis has had good seasons in the past even if you have to go back several years. Muncy played sporadically for Oakland, never showing the consistency he has this year with the Dodgers where he is a top three hitter since being brought up from the minors in April.
On the pitching side, while Stripling has been much better than expected, he was at least on a team on opening day. Where would the Brewers be without early April callup Junior Guerra? In sixteen starts since April 10, Guerra is 5-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 88 strikeouts in 87.7 innings.
Zach Steinhorn (Baseball Prospectus, @zachsteinhorn)
Jesus Aguilar – Talk about taking advantage of an opportunity. This guy was barely worth a roster spot in NL-only leagues heading into the season. Maybe we shouldn’t be too surprised about the power considering that Aguilar did hit 16 homers in just 279 at-bats last season, but he’s well on his way towards doubling that total this year. The .300-plus batting average is a surprise. It will be interesting to see how the Brewers distribute the playing time if Aguilar begins to cool off and the rest of the lineup is healthy.
Miles Mikolas – We saw the stellar numbers Mikolas posted while pitching in Japan but no one really knew what to expect from him this season, especially since he registered a 6.44 ERA in his last big league stint back in 2014. The risk averse (myself included) avoided him. Big mistake. Mikolas has been a top-25 fantasy SP so far, though the lack of strikeouts limits his ceiling. While I don’t think he will be a second-half bust, Mikolas owners might want to see what they can get for him on the trade market. His stock may be at its peak right now.
Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter)
For hitters, Paul Goldschmidt has been a surprise to watch. His owners (including me) all panicked when he was so pathetic. We thought maybe the humidor had ruined him. But then came his amazing hot streak and his numbers are just fine….except lost in this is that he ONLY HAS 2 SB!!! After the last 3 years of 21, 32 and 18 steals. I don’t know why he isn’t running, but this has really hurt his value. My team really needs those other 7-8 steals he should have had by now.
Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): Lots of options for this, but I’ll go with Trevor Bauer. He’s on pace for 216IP, 2.45 1.09, 14W, 278K….which for me is a $43 AL-only league value. And while he isn’t likely to keep up quite this pace, he may not slide much. His last 12 starts in 2017 were at a 2.45 ERA 1.20 WHIP and 10.2 K/9. He’s got better control, more fastball velocity and a new pitch. If you want more details, there’s a good article by Travis Sawchik on Fangraphs about him (dated 6/25/18).
Adam Ronis (Scout Fantasy, @AdamRonis)
The biggest surprise hitter is Max Muncy. He wasn’t even drafted in most draft champions leagues. He didn’t do anything of note with Oakland and had a good season at Triple-A with the Dodgers last season, but the 27-year old has been the best waiver wire add. He has 20 home runs in 193 at-bats and is eligible at multiple positions. While a 31.7 percent HR/FB rate is likely to decline, he has a good eye at the plate, has an 18.8 percent walk rate and hits the ball in the air often and hard. The pace will slow down, but he will still be good.
For pitcher, it’s Ross Stripling. His numbers as a starter resemble an ace. Low walks, high strikeouts, excellent ERA and WHIP. The strand rate is lucky, but all the skills look real. The concern I have is fatigue later in the season since he hasn’t thrown many innings the last few seasons.
Jeff Mans (Fantasy Guru Elite, @Jeff_Mans)
Albert Almora hitting .330 (.365 OBP). This was a guy that got some attention leading into the season when it was thought he’d be the Cubs primary leadoff hitter Vs LHP but that hasn’t even sustained itself. Finding a player in the later rounds or on waivers that can hit us 20+ HR’s is a lot easier these days than finding one that gives us a .300+ average (or 350+ OBP). Almora isn’t going to sustain this high of an average or OBP but considering he’s made great strides against RHP from his minor league days, I do not think the drop is going to be as great as some might think.
The biggest surprise pitcher to me is Mike Foltynewicz. Here is a guy that had a glaring weakness against LHH and has seemingly fixed that this season. What’s more is that he’s doing it by barely throwing his changeup. As good as he’s been, his pitch mix still tells me that there is a drop coming especially as he faces teams with more left handed thunder.
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis)
The biggest upside surprise hitter for me is Ozzie Albies of Atlanta. We know that the stolen bases would be there, but I don’t think that anyone projected his 18 home run and 50 RBI output at this stage of the season. He also leads the National League in runs scored with 69. The most important stat that is not measured is his love of the game. He gives it all on the field. He hustles and just shows a great passion for the game. He has elevated not only his game, but the other players on the Atlanta Braves this season. He is going to be a lot of fun to watch over the next several seasons.
The biggest upside surprise pitcher this season for me is Blake Snell for Tampa Bay. As of today and through 115 IP, he has a 12-4 record with a K/BB ratio of 132/44. He carries an outstanding ERA of 2.09 and a WHIP of 1.03. He’s still on 25 years old with room to grow. The big change for Snell this season has been his minimization of his past control issues. I would not be surprised if he is in the mix for the Cy Young award this season.
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer)
Max Muncy is this season’s biggest surprise, no question. He was released by the A’s during spring training in 2017 and then signed a minor league contract with the Dogers, and now he sits with a .425 wOBA and 31.3% HR/FB rate over 248 plate appearances?! And even as a left-handed hitter, he’s been fantastic against southpaws. He has always possessed excellent plate discipline, and that has continued in the Majors, providing optimism that this isn’t just some majorly fluky hot streak. Clearly, regression is coming, but I think he remains a solid 12-team mixed league asset the rest of the way.
On the pitching side, it has to be Ross Stripling, who is currently fourth in ERA among qualified pitchers. He has been legimitately elite, thanks to pinpoint control and a hefty strikeout rate. However, the magic is going to wear off at some point. The SwStk% marks on his pitches aren’t all that impressive and certainly don’t support a near 30% strikeout rate. And it’s awfully tough to sustain such a minuscule walk rate. He’ll likely continue earning positive value in 12-team mixed leagues, but producing more like a mid-to-high 3.00 ERA.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola)
Lots of great stuff by my colleagues. I’ll add I’m not surprised, but downright shocked Elvis Andrus has the same number of steals as me. I know Andrus has been dealing with injuries, but to have three fewer than Zack Greinke? Geez.
As for pitching, I’m surprised Sonny Gray hasn’t shown any signs of figuring it out.