Tout Wars FAB Report: Week of September 25

We made it! This is the final FAAB run of the 2023 season. Thank you for checking out the reports throughout the year.

See you in March!

Remember, you can see the standings, rosters and all the moves for each league by clicking on the jump link magically inserted under each league header.

American League

Player Team Bid
TKahnle, NYY Doug Dennis 23
MPerez, Tex Jeff Erickson 10
JCaminero, TB Jason Collette 3
CBethancourt, TB Patrick Davitt 2
TJankowski, Tex Eric Samulski 0
JJung, Tex Mike Podhorzer 0
TLarnach, Min Mike Podhorzer 0
MStefanic, LAA Andy Andres 0
TMay, Oak Rob Leibowitz 0
CGreen, Tor Andy Andres 0
TNevin, Det Andy Andres 0

National League

Player Team Bid
MWaldron, SD Steve Gardner 9
JCuas, ChC Todd Zola 9
JBerti, Mia Ian Kahn 8
TKinley, Col Brian Walton 7
CPriester, Pit Ian Kahn 4
MLuciano, SF Ian Kahn 4
JHoffman, Phi Erik Halterman 2
MMoore, Mia Erik Halterman 2
JTriolo, Pit Phil Hertz 2
ABarnes, LAD Derek Carty 0
CAnderson, Col Phil Hertz 0
GPerdomo, Ari Derek Carty 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
JLeclerc, Tex Bret Sayre 51
BDoyle, Col Scott Chu 45
JAdell, LAA Justin Mason 20
JGray, Tex Brent Hershey 15
CBiggio, Tor Scott Swanay 13
SBieber, Cle Kev Mahserejian 10
KFarmer, Min Scott Chu 10
JDonaldson, Mil Justin Mason 10
JMerryweather, ChC Justin Mason 10
JMcArthur, KC Justin Mason 5
MStrahm, Phi Bret Sayre 2
APuk, Mia Scott Swanay 1
JHoffman, Phi Scott Swanay 1
GHampson, Mia Scott Swanay 1

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
JMcArthur, KC AJ Mass 300
CBiggio, Tor AJ Mass 70
NVelazquez, KC Adam Ronis 18
CPhillips, Cin Mike Gianella 8
AKnizner, StL Ryan Bloomfield 6
JCaminero, TB Scott White 4
MMargot, TB AJ Mass 1

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
RJeffers, Min Frank Stampfl 1
AOttavino, NYM Frank Stampfl 1
AChapman, Tex Frank Stampfl 1
BRodgers, Col Greg Jewett 4
JAdell, LAA Greg Jewett 4
AZerpa, KC Greg Jewett 4
TMegill, NYM Greg Jewett 4
JMcArthur, KC Greg Jewett 4
ROHearn, Bal Greg Jewett 4

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
OPeraza, NYY Dylan White 42
LTaveras, Tex Dylan White 41
MRojas, LAD Dylan White 35
EFlorial, NYY Dylan White 31
AHouser, Mil Brian Entrekin 6
AMarsh, KC Brian Entrekin 6
JAlvarado, Phi Dylan White 3
AOttavino, NYM Dylan White 3
KFarmer, Min Brian Entrekin 2
KFinnegan, Was Matt Trussell 0
BRooker, Oak Brian Entrekin 0
TTaylor, Mil Brian Entrekin 0
JYoung, Was Andy Behrens 0
MWaldron, SD Andy Behrens 0
CPhillips, Cin Andy Behrens 0

Tout Wars FAB Report: Week of September 18

And then there were two. This is the penultimate FAB run. This week’s inventory is a mix of young players and previously dropped players hoping to finish their season strong.

Remember, you can see the standings, rosters and all the moves for each league by clicking on the jump link magically inserted under each league header.

American League

Player Team Bid
JWalsh, LAA Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 77
SGipsonLong, Det Eric Samulski 60
BDalbec, Bos Jason Collette 22
EduEscobar, LAA Larry Schechter 16
EFlorial, NYY Eric Samulski 9
BPhillips, LAA Jason Collette 7
SHorwitz, Tor Patrick Davitt 1
KFarmer, Min Eric Samulski 1
NPivetta, Bos Andy Andres 0
TClarke, KC Mike Podhorzer 0
LVarland, Min Mike Podhorzer 0
TKemp, Oak Andy Andres 0
JAdams, LAA Mike Podhorzer 0

National League

Player Team Bid
JDonaldson, Mil Ian Kahn 21
JCueto, Mia Ian Kahn 21
MConforto, SF Erik Halterman 16
JProfar, SD Ian Kahn 16
PCrowArmstrong, ChC Brian Walton 6
JLucchesi, NYM Tristan H. Cockcroft 5
JRutledge, Was Brian Walton 2
DSmyly, ChC Phil Hertz 2
MLeiter, ChC Peter Kreutzer 0
ANardi, Mia Peter Kreutzer 0
APuk, Mia Peter Kreutzer 0
ERivera, Ari Peter Kreutzer 0
AVesia, LAD Derek Carty 0
PJohnson, Atl Derek Carty 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
ERuiz, Oak Scott Chu 105
BOber, Min Kev Mahserejian 60
BNaylor, Cle Scott Swanay 56
CRafaela, Bos Scott Chu 35
SLangeliers, Oak Scott Chu 30
WAbreu, Bos Kev Mahserejian 21
AHicks, Bal Bret Sayre 21
SGipsonLong, Det Jeff Zimmerman 13
EMontero, Col Brent Hershey 8
RStephenson, TB Bret Sayre 6
LGarcia, Was Justin Mason 5
MVierling, Det Scott Swanay 3
CQuantrill, Cle Nick Pollack 3

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
SGipsonLong, Det Shelly Verougstraete 98
KBryant, Col Adam Ronis 48
JMerryweather, ChC Adam Ronis 36
JTaillon, ChC Ryan Bloomfield 19
EMontero, Col Adam Ronis 12
TKinley, Col Tim McLeod 8
PBlackburn, Oak Seth Trachtman 6
ECarter, Tex Scott White 6
CRafaela, Bos Scott White 4
AHicks, Bal Seth Trachtman 3
JHeyward, LAD Shelly Verougstraete 2
KGibson, Bal Scott White 2
YMoncada, CWS Scott White 2
WAbreu, Bos Scott White 2
JLucchesi, NYM Mike Gianella 1
CQuantrill, Cle Tim McLeod 0

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
PBlackburn, Oak Ariel Cohen 40
TBradley, TB Ariel Cohen 35
SGipsonLong, Det Greg Jewett 16
JMerryweather, ChC Greg Jewett 9
CHolmes, NYY Frank Stampfl 6
LCampusano, SD Greg Jewett 4
JButto, NYM Frank Stampfl 3
RMauricio, NYM Frank Stampfl 2
RGrossman, Tex Greg Jewett 2
ECarter, Tex Frank Stampfl 1

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
MKing, NYY Sara Sanchez 14
EJulien, Min Sara Sanchez 14
JHeyward, LAD Sara Sanchez 12
JMeans, Bal Dylan White 4
MVierling, Det Dylan White 3
HKjerstad, Bal Matt Trussell 1
JAssad, ChC Matt Trussell 0
AWainwright, StL Dylan White 0
JAdon, Was Dylan White 0
CPoche, TB Andy Behrens 0

Tout Table: A Mock of Our Own

Thanks to the voluntary efforts of 15 Touts, we have a six-round mock draft to discuss. Even though Tout Wars uses OBP instead of batting average, the participants were asked to draft a standard 5×5 leagues, assuming a seven-man reserve with FAAB. Here are the mockers, in order of selection:

1. Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman)

2. Sky Dombroske (Fantistics Insider Baseball, @SkyDombroske)

3. Joe Sheehan (Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, @joe_sheehan)

4. DJ Short (NBC Sports, @djshort)

5. Shelly Verougstraete (NBC Sports EDGE Baseball, @ShellyV_643)

6. Seth Trachtman (SethRoto.com, Yardbarker, @sethroto)

7. Michael Govier (FTN Fantasy, @mjgovier)

8. Justin Mason (Friends With Fantasy Benefits, @JustinMasonFWFB)

9. Joe Gallina (Fantasy Alarm, @joegallina)

10. Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski)

11. Carlos Marcano (Triple Play Fantasy, @camarcano)

12. Frank Stampfl (SportsGrid, RotoExperts, @Roto_Frank)

13. Greg Jewett (The Athletic, @gjewett9)

14. Tim McLeod (Prospect361, @RunTMcP361)

15. Andy Andres (BaseballHQ, @sabermetrics101)

Here is the draft (right-click to enlarge in a separate tab):

Rotoworld analyzed the mock draft on a podcast, with D.J. Short, Eric Samulski, and guest Scott Pianowski.

Here are the comments from the Touts.

Fred Zinkie (Yahoo/Rotowire, @FredZinkieMLB): I would say that this is a surprise, but it’s worth noting that we have less clarity on the first round than I remember in recent seasons. It should not surprise us if next year we see a player picked 12th in one draft and 3rd in another. Once we get past Acuna, there are 10 or more names that could be pulled out of a hat.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): A little bemused by the top-3 catchers going 50-61-75. Not saying it’s wrong, but it is quite different from last season. Only 4 SPs in the first two rounds was interesting. Oneil Cruz 4-10 (54) is optimistic about Cruz’s recovery. Optimism likewise on Michael’s Alcantara pick at 6-9 (84), given the very real risk that Alcantara’s “flexor tendon” injury will be a precursor to TJS. I really though Justion M got a steal (no pun intended) with CJ Abrams at 5-8 (68); I thought he might go a little earlier. Closers also curious: After all the talk about grabbing the top guys early, the first out here wasn’t til 3-13 (43), and it was Edwin Diaz, who didn’t throw a pitch in 2023! The run started at 4-8 (53) and six more went from Clasé at 4-12 (57) through Doval at 5-14 (74). I’ll be curious to see what the managers who didn’t get in on the run do for saves later on.

Andy Behrens (Yahoo Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): I definitely agree with Zinkie on the uncertain nature of the first round beyond Acuna. We can make reasonable arguments for maybe a dozen players to be taken with picks 2-5. I also feel as if Trea Turner is working his way back in the first round–and possibly the first half of the first round. As of this writing, he’s 11 for his last 23 with four homers and two steals. He’s headed for a 30-30 season (or awfully close to it) and he managed to save his batting average, too.

Jeff Barton (Scoresheet Baseball, @JeffScoresheet): Gotta like Dombroske’s OF – Julio Rodrigues, Harper and Trout. Trout has been really hurt by injuries in recent seasons, but sure seems like a great ‘gamble’ in round 5. And seeing Gausman go in round 2 is yet another reminder of how foolish the Giants (my favorite team) were to let him go before the 2022 season.

Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): After the volatility with starting pitching this year I’m a little surprised Framber Valdez lasted as long as he did – he’s been pretty consistent over the past 3 seasons, and the Astros figure to be among the league’s better offenses again next year. And I’m probably succumbing to recency bias, but I like both Trea Turner and Freddy Peralta to be drafted higher than they were here for a 15-teamer. Also, somewhat surprised that Judge didn’t go a bit sooner and Ohtani didn’t go a bit later.

Alan Harrison (The Fantasy Fix, @TheFantasyFix): Again, piggybacking on Fred’s initial thoughts, lots of coin flip bats following Acuña in the first round. I don’t hate the arms in the fourth or fifth round in this draft which leads me to believe I may be more inclined to stack a combination of infield/outfield bats early on and add arms periodically throughout the draft to build a staff.

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, @jeffwzimmerman): None, all 90 players drafted are good and there seems to be a nice distribution of positions. The key now is to find out what positions and/or stats can’t be filled later in drafts and prioritize those positions and/or stats with these known good talents.

Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski): When you draft a hitter in the first round, you should also love the offense that he’s tied to. Jose Ramirez is starting the back nine of his career and I hate what’s around him in Cleveland. I wouldn’t consider him in the Top 10-12 picks. (I also agree with the others who suggest Trea Turner is headed back to the first round.)

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): The changing of the starting pitching guard is now complete. With Strider the 1st SP off the board and followed in subsequent round by pitchers like Luis Castillo, Zac Gallen, and George Kirby, the SP landscape has received a facelift.

Brad Johnson (Patreon BaseballATeam, @BaseballATeam): Not to be flippant, but it looks like a lot of very good players were taken. I don’t have much to say about this draft – everybody is going to be very happy about their 6-10 rounds next season. I’d love to see how the current fantasy landscape comps to past years because it sure feels like there are more star performers than I can ever remember. The draft order (early rounds) will be affected more by NFBC usage trends than player quality. I think we’ll see pitchers of both types pushed forward as compared to this draft.

Matt Williams (The Game Day, @MattWi77iams): I think the first round, other than Acuña is an interesting surprise in terms of likely parity. There does not seem to be a set “order” like there typically would. I feel like we could see the biggest disparity between drafts in the first round than we have in a long time.

Michael Govier (FTN Fantasy, @mjgovier): Jazz Chisholm in the 4th round is a surprise to me simply because he seems to be fairly brittle physically. He’s a dynamite talent with endless charisma, but that doesn’t mean much if he’s rarely available to play on the diamond. Also, Ha Seong Kim in the 4th round is cheap! He was an excellent player before he came to MLB who appeared to have a challenging transition in his first season, which is not unheard of for players who come over from the KBO and Japan. His peripherals and his talent combine to make him most likely a 2nd rounder at least in terms of production. I think by the time draft season rolls around next February, Kim will be a top 25 selection at worst.

Howard Bender (Fantasy Alarm, @RotoBuzzGuy): That we are still giving Spencer Strider first-round love despite the collapses that occur towards the end of each half. That any starting pitchers are getting first-round love actually. Welcome back to the days where you can wait on pitching and need to boost that offense!

Ryan Hallam (Fighting Chance Fantasy, @FightingChance): I was a little surprised about the number of closers that were drafted in this six-round exercise, and also thought that starting pitching would go a little earlier. There are a few injury risks on here as well, Edwin Diaz, Jazz, O’Neil Cruz but overall, I thought it was a fine job by the drafters!

Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): This was a standard 5×5 draft, but when Tout Wars (an OBP league) has its 2024 drafts, I expect Adley Rutschman to go earlier. Seems his combination of position and OBP is something that drafters in on-base formats will push higher in 2024.

CJ Kaltenbach (Fantasy Guru, @TheSeigeDFS): Given the depth and upside provided in the mid-late rounds at the catcher position I can’t see myself taking one inside the top 75 and seeing three was a big surprise. We also have seen a lot of breakout seasons from older players and figuring out if they are worth a top 100 pick will be interesting (Lane Thomas and Justin Steele the best examples of this.).

Carlos Marcano (Triple Play Fantasy, @camarcano): I think Abrams was a great pick where Justin took him, great value at that point and I was surprised he lasted that long. Also, I was very surprised I was able to get him that far, people are underestimating him.

Grey Albright (RazzBall, @razzball): Surprised/not surprised people are still drafting starting pitching high. Pitchers can be as fickle as they are and people continue to go back to them year after year. You can see on the Razzball Player Rater, starters between picks 100-200 last year were the most valuable crop of starters, and it’s like this every year. Yet — again with some stank — YET! people draft starters high every year. Like clockwork on a broken clock that’s right twice a day.

Eric Samulski (Rotoballer, @SamskiNYC): I think Ohtani going in the first is a bit of a surprise. He’s very likely to have TJ in the off-season and even if he makes a Bryce Harper type of recovery, you’re talking about missing 1-2 months of the season and not having his typical power right when he comes back. As a UT-only, I don’t see how he can be a first-round pick due to all of that

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): Justin Steele in the 6th–bunch of non-believers!!! Andy A–why do you hate pitchers? 🙂

Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): I judge these premature exercises by looking for outliers. First, players whose 2023 breakouts alone were enough to jump them into early rounds. I see one in the first round, one in the second round, one in the third, and more and more as we go deeper into the draft. Those are high-risk speculations based on no track record other than 2023. I won’t own those guys – you only get one shot at early round cornerstone players. The flipside – players who’s disappointing 2023 pushed them out of these early ADPs. Poor Trea Turner! Even Goldy in the 4th round seems like some built-in profit. We are so reactive! Ya gotta fight recency bias.

Shelly Verougstraete (NBC Sports EDGE Baseball, @ShellyV_643): Sure, taking Strider with the fifth overall pick seems high but I liked how my next few rounds went. Unless Strider gets injured (which could happen!) he should easily finish with the most strikeouts next year. At least at the start of draft season the talk is to push down starting pitching so…zig while others zag!

Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): When I look at early drafts, mocks or otherwise, I care about the relative nature of the picks, not the absolute. Strider went fifth. I could care less. What interests me is he was considered the top starter. To be honest, I’m not likely to take a pitcher first, regardless of who is at the top, so I focus more on the later rounds. My motto is “draft the pitcher, not the round.” I’ll use some early drafts to set a target tier for my SP1. Sure, there will be an ADP ballparking when they’ll be available, but if the draft flow dictates jumping the ADP to get someone in my tier, I’ll do it. Conversely, if the flow indicates I can wait past the ADP, I’ll resist the temptation to take someone “better” than my tier and patiently wait until my tier is being drafted. Starting pitcher and closer are the obvious targets of this approach, though it can be applied to catchers, and last season, third baseman. In the past, middle infielders fit the mold.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): It’s interesting to see the premier 2B pushed up equal to or even ahead of some of the premier 3B options, I think in previous years that was a little more tilted to the 3B side of the equation. Also, I thought starting pitching would be pushed up more here given how scarce it’s been and how difficult it’s been to have truly “set and forget” options at SP this year. So, I’ll be keeping an eye on drafts going forward to see if you can still get great options like Eury, Gilbert, Snell and Steele in the 5th/6th as draft season really picks up. Those look like incredible deals relative to pitching needs this season.

Kev Mahserejian (Fox Sports, @RotoSurgeon): Seeing Edwin Diaz drafted in Round 3 is somewhat baffling. The talent at full strength is undeniable but severe knee injuries are no joke, especially to his right/plant leg. Even with plenty of time between surgery and next season, the rehab process cannot fully guarantee his comfort on that leg mentally and/or physically. Several RPs afterwards are fair to also consider “elite” talents such as Josh Hader, Camilo Doval, and Devin Williams yet they’re available a full round if not more later despite stellar 2023 seasons. Projecting forward on Diaz is a massive unknown for my money.

Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman): I found it hard to be as confident as I wanted to be in the starting pitchers after the first couple rounds. That might be an inherent feature of drafting this early, but I think it’s a reflection of the fact that there’s been a lot of turnover on the mound this year with several top names getting old or injured. It also may reflect that offense jumped this year, so pitching numbers which looked like they merited an eighth-round selection this year might deserve a sixth-round pick next season. It might take a draft or two to reset those outdated intuitions.

Chris Towers (CBS Fantasy, @CTowersCBS): Oneil Cruz at 54th overall is pretty fascinating, seeing as it’s about two rounds higher than he was going last season. I don’t necessarily think it’s the wrong place to take him, but it’s awfully aggressive for a guy who has only played nine games this season. On the other hand, it might end up being a steal, given that Elly De La Cruz has many of the same strengths and weaknesses, and the one place he really looks like he has an edge on Cruz is SB — and we didn’t get to see what Cruz could do in this new environment. That’s going to be a fascinating one to watch.

Greg Jewett (The Athletic, @gjewett9): I had zero plans on taking so much pitching, but they fell into my wheelhouse, which may be a result of where I selected in this “mock”. In a money draft, I smash Yordan in the second, or even take Bryce Harper with 1B eligibility now, but selected Albies so I was out of my comfort zone. I planned on taking Triston Casas or Nolan Jones in the seventh. Getting Yordan sets a template of power. And Kev, Díaz already hitting high 90’s in side sessions, with Félix’s unknown UCL, the SwStr% dip by Hader and Doval, I am ok doing this, but each draft remains different. This exercise helps create what’s comfortable, what is not. But noting the ratio volatility in ME’s this year, those who never take pitching will be left behind.

Anthony Perri (Fantistics, @Anthony_Perri): The impact that MLB made in shortening the bases, eliminating the shift (and shortening the time between pitches?), had a measurable effect on starting pitchers in 2022. I think that was wisely reflected in this Tout primer draft, only FOUR starting pitchers in first 2 rounds!

Justin Mason (Friends With Fantasy Benefits, @JustinMasonFWFB): As a participant, I was surprised how deep the top tiers of talent there appear to be especially in pitching. I’m sure it will thin out as we lose pitchers in spring training but the pool feels pretty decent at the top in spite of losing a lot to injuries this year

Tout Wars FAB Report: Week of September 11

You can’t take it with you, but the Touts can be penalized FAAB next season if they finish below a set threshold of points. Some of these bids are for teams competing for the title, while others are doing what they can to minimize, or avoid, the FAAB penalty.

Remember, you can see the standings, rosters and all the moves for each league by clicking on the jump link magically inserted under each league header.

American League

Player Team Bid
AWells, NYY Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 77
EValdez, Bos Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 31
NLoftin, KC Joe Sheehan 21
EOlivares, KC Joe Sheehan 16
KRosenberg, LAA Jeff Erickson 10
BShaw, CWS Jeff Erickson 10
RPinto, TB Jason Collette 8
HNeris, Hou Doug Dennis 8
SFujinami, Bal Doug Dennis 2
BFrancis, Tor Doug Dennis 2
GJax, Min Andy Andres 0
JSmith, Tex Andy Andres 0
SHuff, Tex Patrick Davitt 0
CMarlowe, Sea Patrick Davitt 0
KSmith, Oak Mike Podhorzer 0
DJimenez, Oak Larry Schechter 0

National League

Player Team Bid
ECabrera, Mia Peter Kreutzer 33
JLawlar, Ari Erik Halterman 26
AMonasterio, Mil Ian Kahn 11
KWinn, SF Ian Kahn 11
JButto, NYM Ian Kahn 9
RNelson, Ari Ian Kahn 6
ELongoria, Ari Ian Kahn 5
RYarbrough, LAD Todd Zola 3
TMegill, Mil Phil Hertz 3
JStallings, Mia Brian Walton 2
GGallegos, StL Rick Graham 1
ONarvaez, NYM Ian Kahn 1
MAndujar, Pit Tristan H. Cockcroft 1
CSchmitt, SF Rick Graham 1
GHampson, Mia Rick Graham 1
ABarnes, LAD Phil Hertz 0
JHoffman, Phi Phil Hertz 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
JLawlar, Ari Nick Pollack 96
ECarter, Tex Brent Hershey 77
RPepiot, LAD Justin Mason 60
NVelazquez, KC Zach Steinhorn 52
LCampusano, SD Brent Hershey 29
TMegill, NYM Bret Sayre 22
JAlu, Was Justin Mason 5
WCastro, Min Jeff Zimmerman 3
CRea, Mil Jeff Zimmerman 1
TMegill, Mil Justin Mason 0
CPoche, TB Scott Swanay 0
KYates, Atl Scott Swanay 0

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
JLawlar, Ari Adam Ronis 78
MKing, NYY Ryan Bloomfield 52
RPepiot, LAD Scott White 18
LCampusano, SD Scott White 1
JButto, NYM Mike Gianella 1
KRosenberg, LAA Mike Gianella 1
BAbreu, Hou Scott White 0
TWalls, TB Scott White 0

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
DHudson, StL Ariel Cohen 45
MKing, NYY Greg Jewett 45
CTaylor, LAD Greg Jewett 27
HGoodman, Col Frank Stampfl 3
BDeLaCruz, Mia Frank Stampfl 3
MLiberatore, StL Michael Govier 3
MCanha, Mil Frank Stampfl 2

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
TPham, Ari Dylan White 33
JAbreu, Hou Sara Sanchez 29
JLawlar, Ari Sara Sanchez 27
RPepiot, LAD Andy Behrens 20
NPivetta, Bos Sara Sanchez 17
BDoyle, Col Dylan White 12
TToussaint, CWS Dylan White 3
JMerryweather, ChC Sara Sanchez 2
WCastro, Min Dylan White 2
ABummer, CWS Dylan White 0
ECabrera, Mia Andy Behrens 0
JSuwinski, Pit Matt Trussell 0

Tout Table: A Look at the first 2024 NFBC Draft

Rob DiPietro (@deadpullhitter) and 14 more meatballs (his words, not ours) including a few Touts, drafted the first six rounds of an actual NFBC draft to be played out in 2024. This is a 15-team Draft Championship leagues (50-man rosters with no in-season pickups)

Right click and open in a new tab for a larger view.

The Touts were asked, What is the biggest surprise from the first 2024 NFBC draft? Please share any other observations.

Fred Zinkie (Yahoo/Rotowire, @FredZinkieMLB): Eight closers in the first four rounds. I guess the early closer trend is gaining steam. I may choose to zig while others zag next year.

Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): After pick 34, the floodgates opened on buying pitching in general. Two closers in the *second* round even before that. 49 of the 105 picks were pitchers. I like what Bubba (yay-Bubba–congrats champ!) did with bats in rounds 1-2-3 and then pitchers in 4-5-6, based on selections in this draft. It feels like a team can grab a real counting stats advantage in this draft without even really giving anything up on the pitching side in this way. Finally, my thought on closers is recent memory: Edwin Diaz, Liam Hendriks, now Felix Bautista. Fluke? I sure don’t think so.

Alex Chamberlain (FanGraphs, @DolphHauldhagen): For the sheer number of high-quality rookie arms that debuted this year (like, a historic number of them) I’m surprised that I see virtually none of them in the top-100 picks. It seems to me SP will be similarly loaded like last year (and certainly drafters will get burned badly in some spots), and if it’s running as deep as it appears—while old guys (Scherzer, Verlander) and disappointments (Nola, Urías) get the benefit of the doubt—then I imagine I will find myself waiting awhile for some of the arms after the Sporer-anointed Blob.

Rick Graham (Pitcher List, @IAmRickGraham): To me, it’s the amount of pitching off the board early, specifically closers as 16 of them went in the first 99 picks here. I believe there were on average 8 closers going in to the top 100 picks in most 2023 NFBC drafts, so to see that number double is definitely a surprise. Given the circumstances, I think waiting until that 6th/7th round to take your first closer makes sense as those 16 closers are not too different from each other.

Jeff Erickson (Rotowire, @Jeff_Erickson): I think the starting pitching run begins later in the draft, the earlier that the pool is drafting. By the time we get to March, that “yellow brick road” (H/T DVR) starts up in earnest in the second round. There were only four SPs taken in the first two rounds, and I suspect that number will climb later on.

Jeff Barton (Scoresheet Baseball, @JeffScoresheet): I wonder is the likely Tommy John surgery for Ohtani will sap his power at least somewhat in 2024? Seems like a risky pick for the 2nd pick overall. And I know I will be quite happy next year if I can get Soto in round 4.

Garion Thorne (DraftKings, @GarionThorne): I’m a little shocked to see Elly De La Cruz slip just outside the first round. Obviously there are flaws in De La Cruz’s profile, but his wOBA and OBP are incredibly similar to the numbers produced by Bobby Witt Jr. in 2022 — not to mention his prorated counting stats in home runs and stolen bases. Despite those underwhelming ratios in his rookie campaign, Witt was a consensus first round pick in 2023. De La Cruz has a similar pedigree and arguably a better supporting cast in Cincinnati. I think that ADP rises by February.

Nick Pollack (Pitcher List, @PitcherList): Max Fried is going far too late. The injury risk is pushing him down, though we see injuries from a vast number of pitchers each year, regardless of history. His stability prior to this season shouldn’t be overlooked, especially with other aces with more damaging histories are going earlier. Throw in the massive Win chance and phenomenal ratios, and Fried should be going in the 4th or 5th. I’d be shocked if we saw a September that brought more haze than clarity.

Sky Dombroske (Fantistics Insider Baseball, @SkyDombroske): Probably Vlad remaining a 2nd-round pick despite barely being a top-15 1B this season. Christian Walker has been almost exactly as valuable over the past two years, yet he went almost 4 rounds later….not sure the 8 years of age difference is quite worth that. Also, as others have stated, 5 more closers going in the top 105 picks than last year’s ADP appears to point to the trend now.

D.J. Short (NBC Sports, @djshort): The pressure to draft a closer en masse is beginning earlier than ever. And if this is where Edwin Díaz is going in the spring, I’m all in. I suspect he will only move up, especially if he makes an appearance or two in September.

Ryan Bloomfield (BaseballHQ, @RyanBHQ): As someone who was in this draft (and in the Zoom room), the SP “push down” was more a collective reluctance to take a starter with six weeks left of the season. I agree with Jeff E. that starters will go earlier come March. Since there’s some Edwin Diaz chatter, here’s a fun tidbit from the draft: John Fish said “Diaz” for his 4th round pick; the room replied “which one?”; brother Edwin was taken with the next pick.

Greg Jewett (The Athletic, @gjewett9): This format always pushes up closers because there’s no in-season pick-ups, but seeing Edwin Díaz being the eighth reliever taken will not happen once the new year hits. Especially if he makes a return this season. For perspective, in March 2023, nine relievers were taken in the first 100 picks in the Draft Champions format, so this followed suit. With Félix Bautista injured, expect Díaz being the first or second reliever off the board once these go live in November and Devin Williams will also rise, especially with a strong postseason.

Sara Sanchez (bleedcubbieblue.com, @BCB_Sara): I always love an early draft board. The first thing I see is that a ton of pitching went in the first seven rounds relative to position player talent and that is really interesting. It’s like all of us have been fighting over pitching on the waiver wire for the last few months and just never want to do that again. I’d be curious to compare it to a March draft to see just the sheer amount of pitching that went off the boards in the first seven rounds v. drafts close to opening day this year. Similarly, it’s interesting to see the priority on catchers pushed down to the fifth round before that mini-run. Will be interesting to see if that persists.

Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, @Scott_Pianowski): Early drafts are lovely, when there’s no real ADP yet and you can just let it fly. I’m not sure Jose Ramirez currently belongs in the Top 10. Early picks should include team buoyancy, and Cleveland can’t check that box. Maybe I’d make an excuse for someone like Aaron Judge, who can be a monster on his own. Ramirez needs some help. Draft into offenses that excite you, at least with those lottery picks.

Jason Collette (Rotowire, @jasoncollette): That people are doing a baseball draft in August. Sickos! In all seriousness, seeing 16 closers going in the first 7 rounds after the ROI on closers this year has been rather terrible is surprising.

Eric Cross (FTNFantasy, @EricCross04): This draft looks to be extremely pitcher-heavy, even more than we usually see, and especially with relievers. Only one team had less than three pitchers through the first several rounds. I thought this season would cause 2024 drafts to go the other direction, but I guess not. Also, I was surprised to see Tucker and Soto fall as far as they did and Albies and Turner go as high as they did.

Shelly Verougstraete (NBC Sports EDGE Baseball, @ShellyV_643): I know this format pushes up closers but wowza! I was not expecting to see so many go in the first seven rounds. Harper as the 24th overall selected player seems like a steal knowing that he should have 1B eligibility next season. I wonder if he would have been pushed up any if the draft was held now, as he is white-hot at the plate right now.

Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, @jeffwzimmerman): I’m ignoring the reliever ADP since it’s a draft-and-hold league. These managers can’t add anyone during the season so I understand getting an anchor. I feel any of the first-round hitters from picks 4 to 11 are interchangeable so the key might be figuring out the second and third round targets if a team’s pick can be chosen.

Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): How early SP was handled is what stands out. I thought that the gap between the established top SP group and the rest of the SP pool, along with the uptick in offense in MLB generally, would force top tier SP selections higher. IE – Offensive stat pool is deeper, so can ‘afford’ to wait on bats a bit. In short, surprised that there weren’t more drafters following the DuPonte blueprint here (Freeman/Castillo/Gallen/Glasnow). Will be fascinating to watch once these 2024 drafts get cranked up.

Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman): It’s going to be fun to see where the ADP for the quartet of shortstops at the start of the second round (Trea Turner, Bo Bichette, Elly Da La Cruz and Corey Seager) ends up settling. They offer very different skillsets and different blends of floor and ceiling, yet they were viewed almost identically overall in this draft. All four could affect their draft stock significantly in September, particularly Turner if he has another month of vintage production and De La Cruz as he establishes just how severe his contact concerns will be moving forward.

Joe Sheehan (Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, @joe_sheehan): Anybody willing to draft in August for the next season gets my respect, so consider the following in that context. Trea Turner, even conceding the draft was a week ago, is going far too low. His off year is going to end pretty valuable, and I expect he’ll return top-10 value in 2024. I’d take him over Alvarez, Albies, and Carroll (the shoulder scares me) at least.

Andy Andres (BaseballHQ, @sabermetrics101): Seems like a lot of pitching drafted, 13 of 15 teams took at least 3 pitchers (lots of yellow on the image!). I also thought Elly, Kim and McLain were drafted a bit high, would prefer less risk with the 18th, 50th, and 52nd pick. But what a great exercise, thanks Rob and others for doing this!

Adam Ronis (Fantasy Alarm, @AdamRonis): I was surprised to see Mike Trout go 6.1. It’s the right area but I thought he would go in the first four rounds. Interested to see if he rises in early drafts next season.

Michael A. Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): I understand why it’s done, but I was really surprised to see so many closers go so early. They are all generally volatile (with few exceptions) so it was shocking to see such an emphasis on them in the first few rounds. Pitching in general was really prioritized more so than I have seen in other drafts and formats. It also fascinates me to see how certain players move down draft boards over the years as they age and makes me wonder how long before this next crop of young stars get relegated to the 5th or 6th round.

Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): MACRO: 47/105 pitchers. MICRO: I’d be scared to take Elly 2R because of contact issue. And I was surprised to any closer go before Gausman.

Scott Chu (Pitcher List, @ifthechufits): Matt McLain’s second half had too many red flags for me to consider him in the first five rounds. First, the strikeout rate continued to push above 30% while his walk rate remained barely above average. Second, his high line drive rate in the second half (north of 25%) is not something we can expect for long, especially considering that he was closer to a 15% line drive hitter in the minors. These two issues almost certainly mean we should expect significant regression in his ratios (something more like a .235-.245 hitter with an average OBP). The home runs may not suffer too much, as his minor league profile suggests those line drives will turn into fly balls, but that will also crush McLain’s ratios. I’m not saying he’s bad, of course – but considering him when Glasnow, Woodruff, and the top-tier catchers are still on the board is not something I could do, especially knowing that Hoerner, Stott, Muncy, Paredes, K. Marte, Arraez, and Gleyber are all on the board and don’t need to be picked for a few more rounds.

Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): I’m shocked to see 2 closers selected in the second round, with the first taken 20th overall. That’s a lot of offensive value being given up in the hopes the closer’s team provides enough save opportunities to earn second round value. I would never pass up a top 20 hitter for a closer, or even a top starting pitcher, and I don’t draft starting pitchers in round 2 normally!

Tim McLeod (PattonandCo, @RunTMcP361): We have relative stability in the bullpen component of our game this year and I’m not surprised to see closers moving up the draft board. Remember when the future of our game was a bullpen-by committee? Even the Rays have avoided that scenario. The million-dollar question is do we see more of the same in 2024 or revert to the spinning “Closer Carousel” and huge turnover. I’m sure not waiting until Round #15 next year to find out, nor will I (hopefully) be armed with a fistful of cash on a Sunday evening in mid-July chasing the JoJo Romero, Carlos Hernandez, and/or Gregory Santos types.

Michael Govier (FTN Fantasy, @mjgovier): My tout team is fading, so I don’t know how much credibility I have right now. Still, I was surprised by JoRam falling to 9. That seems like an overreaction to a horrendous offensive season in Cleveland. In addition, Trea Turner not being a first rounder now is a reaction to his difficulties this year, but with steals being more available, maybe his speed attribute doesn’t make his as desirable anymore? I disagree with that because he is still a player who should hit .300 with 30 homer potential in Philly.

Chris Clegg (Pitcher List, @RotoClegg): Like most have said the way closers continue to be pushed up higher and higher each year is wild. I understand in a DC format that having safe closers is important but with 16 going in the top 100 is just crazy to see. Its a volatile position and a lot of these guys may not even have jobs to start the 2024 season. The hitter talent in the top 100 is too good to be taking that many closers, especially in the early rounds.

Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): Pitching, pitching, pitching, whether closer or starter just flying off the board!!!

Carlos Marcano (Triple Play Fantasy, @camarcano): Pablo Lopez’s rank. I think he could be a round 3-4 value and he was picked in round 5 which is interesting.

Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): Never pay for saves. This draft is heavily skewed towards closers being draft too early. And too many closers being drafted overall.

Brian Entrekin (Fantasy Pros, BaseballHQ, @bdentrek): As someone that participated in the draft I was a bit surprised at the major SP runs waiting till Round 3. In DC formats pitching is gold and usually goes earlier. Says a lot about the glob forming at SP. Also, to the “don’t draft saves” crowd, this is a DC so they always get pushed up and for very good reason.

Joe Gallina (Fantasy Alarm, @joegallina): Maybe I’m a little biased being a Yankee fan and all but I’m surprised Aaron Judge almost made it to the second round. His overall stats are lower than we expected due to the time he missed nursing his toe back to health, but based on his current stats if he played a full season he’d be on pace for another 60 HR season. Juan Soto falling to the third round based on his two-year slump seems right, but Tatis, Jr., who isn’t hitting HRs the way he used too (likely a residual effect from his two wrist surgeries) being drafted ahead of Judge does not.

Tout Wars FAB Report: Week of September 4

Labor Day weekend, really? Where did the season go? I blame the pitch clock.

There were a few surprises to pick up in the only leagues this week.

Remember, you can see the standings, rosters and all the moves for each league by clicking on the jump link magically inserted under each league header.

American League

Player Team Bid
JDominguez, NYY Jason Collette 52
TMay, Oak Andy Andres 14
OPeraza, NYY Patrick Davitt 4
OBasabe, TB Jeff Erickson 1
KParis, LAA Rob Leibowitz 0
AStevenson, Min Mike Podhorzer 0
JLeclerc, Tex Patrick Davitt 0
EClement, Tor Andy Andres 0
CRafaela, Bos Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton 0
SEspinal, Tor Andy Andres 0
AFrazier, Bal Mike Podhorzer 0

National League

Player Team Bid
HRenfroe, Cin Peter Kreutzer 71
HBader, Cin Phil Hertz 69
HGoodman, Col Phil Hertz 31
BBaty, NYM Tristan H. Cockcroft 25
JYoung, Was Peter Kreutzer 23
MBatten, SD Todd Zola 13
BWilson, Mil Peter Kreutzer 3
SReidFoley, NYM Steve Gardner 2
CPhillips, Cin Rick Graham 2
LOrtiz, Pit Tristan H. Cockcroft 0
CFerguson, LAD Derek Carty 0
JPalacios, Pit Derek Carty 0

Mixed Salary Cap

Player Team Bid
JDominguez, NYY Garion Thorne 429
RMauricio, NYM Zach Steinhorn 138
DSchneider, Tor Scott Chu 105
NSchanuel, LAA Scott Chu 75
MDubon, Hou Scott Chu 65
MHaniger, SF Nick Pollack 35
GArias, Cle Brent Hershey 21
MKing, NYY Kev Mahserejian 12
JHeyward, LAD Bret Sayre 8
DStewart, NYM Kev Mahserejian 6
ZDavies, Ari Bret Sayre 3
DCanzone, Sea Jeff Zimmerman 2
AJackson, Pit Scott Engel 2
YGrandal, CWS Justin Mason 0

Mixed Draft

Player Team Bid
JDominguez, NYY Seth Trachtman 150
ESheehan, LAD Mike Gianella 22
TBradley, TB Mike Gianella 22
ZDavies, Ari Shelly Verougstraete 12
GCooper, SD Adam Ronis 12
KCalhoun, Cle Adam Ronis 12
KParis, LAA Tim McLeod 4
CPhillips, Cin Mike Gianella 2
YGrandal, CWS Mike Gianella 2
WMiley, Mil Adam Ronis 2

Head to Head

Player Team Bid
MManning, Det Ariel Cohen 33
ZThompson, StL Lauren Auerbach 23
ACobb, SF Sky Dombroske 23
DLeMahieu, NYY Greg Jewett 18
PMeadows, Det Lauren Auerbach 17
JPCrawford, Sea Sky Dombroske 16
JDominguez, NYY Frank Stampfl 13
MTauchman, ChC Greg Jewett 9
ALange, Det Sky Dombroske 9
MCanha, Mil Lauren Auerbach 7
CRafaela, Bos Joe Gallina 3
JMeans, Bal Greg Jewett 3
JWentz, Det Michael Govier 1
MBrantley, Hou Joe Gallina 1
LSeverino, NYY Joe Gallina 0
CWong, Bos Joe Gallina 0
DSolano, Min Greg Jewett 0

Mixed with IP & Saves+Holds

Player Team Bid
JDominguez, NYY Chris Clegg 89
RMauricio, NYM Chris Clegg 76
KHarrison, SF Chris Clegg 47
ADuvall, Bos Sara Sanchez 42
JWicks, ChC Sara Sanchez 12
JScholtens, CWS Dylan White 11
LRengifo, LAA Dylan White 6
DVines, Atl Brian Entrekin 4
HRyu, Tor Brian Entrekin 4
SLangeliers, Oak Dylan White 4
JRojas, Sea Chris Towers 3
JPCrawford, Sea Sara Sanchez 3
NMartini, Cin Carlos Marcano 1
KCrawford, Bos Carlos Marcano 1
TanScott, Mia Chris Towers 1
DKremer, Bal Brian Entrekin 1