Our friends at Baseball HQ are documenting their efforts to capture the title in several Tout Wars leagues. Each Monday and Friday, Patrick Davitt (AL), Phil Hertz (NL) and Brent Hershey (Mixed Auction) will share their thoughts on Baseball HQ. Here’s the link to the inaugural installment:
It’s crunch time with several league races coming down to the wire. Below are the top free agent bids in each of the five Tout Wars leagues, with links to the detailed bidding action following our 8 p.m. ET deadline each Sunday evening. All prices are on a $1000 base.
After you scan the detail below, please join our live chat, starting at 9 p.m. ET Sunday evening, to discuss these results with Todd Zola of Mastersball and other Touts.
Three teams are within three points entering the Sunday night game as Rob Leibowitz, Colton and the Wolfman and Patrick Davitt are in a dogfight. As such, it’s no surprise the top bid was submitted by Leibowitz, sweeping up Ryan McBroom for 38 units. McBroom was acquired by the Royals from the Yankees and should be on the strong side of a first base platoon down the stretch. Leibowitz also grabbed Seattle opener Justin Dunn for $36. The next highest purchase came courtesy of Doug Dennis, betting $30 that Seattle Mariners Kyle Lewis continues to muscle up. Dennis also snagged Lewis’ teammate Shed Long.
The next high bid came courtesy of Colton and the Wolfman as the duo went fishing for saves, hooking Anthony Bass for 23 units. Bass has appeared to retake the closer role from Matt Magill. Colton and the Wolfman also added Grayson Greiner and Bubba Starling as a total of 13 players were plucked from the free agent waters.
Brian Walton and Phil Hertz are battling tooth and nail for the league title with both supplementing their rosters. Walton elected to add Stephen Vogt ($4) and Ray Black ($0) while Hertz cycles in four new players, all for $0 — Brent Suter, Jake Arrieta, Alan Minter and Pat Valaika.
Todd Zola was the big spender, emptying his FAAB wallet on a $71 Nico Hoerner. The Cubs called Hoerner up with Jaview Baez and Addison Russell on the shelf.
Grey Albright and Scott Wilderman also added a pair of bodies. Albright entering the second highest bid this week, a $14 try on Magneuris Sierra along with $0 on Yan Gomes. Wilderman rolled a $7 bid on Austin Voth then added Padres hurler David Bednar for $0.
Scott Swanay and Brett Sayre are within a point entering the Sunday night game with Brent Hershey within striking distance. As a whole, the Mixed Auction was very diligent with 11 Touts adding 24 players.
The league leaders were front and center with Swanay adding three, lead by Luis Severino for $6 as well as Austin Voth and Miguel Rojas for $0. Sayre took advantage of $0 bids on Devin Smeltzer and Welington Castillo while Hershey followed suit on Mauricio Dubon and Jason Castro.
The high bid belonged to Eric Karabell with a $191 purchase of Nico Hoerner. Karabell was busy, also fortifying his roster with Kyle Lewis for $75 and Dinelson Lamet for $51.
Because you can’t put your excess FAAB on account or a gift certificate, Zach Steinhorn dropped 153 on Nick Markakis and 37 on A’s backstop Sean Murphy. Jeff Zimmerman was also in a spending mood, allotting $37 to Tigers fly chaser Christian Stewart and $26 on both Todd Frazier and Jhoulys Chacin.
Ray Murphy and Adam Ronis have made the Mixed Draft a two-team race. Murphy took advantage of the FAAB hammer, routing $66 for Kyle Lewis and Nico Horner. Ronis found Brandon Nimmo for $2.
In total, eight players were added with Rudy Gamble’s $77 bid on Rockies closer heading the pack.
Head to Head
The results are not official but it appears Clay Link and Ian Kahn will meet for the Tout Wars Head to Head Championship, a two-week finals. Based on the regular season where Link was the top team, Kahn comes in as the underdog, helping to explain his array of moves, all for $1: Austin Romine, Sean Murphy, Wil Myers, Luis Severino, Jairo Diaz, Anthony Bass, Jason Heyward and Todd Frazier.
Good luck to the H2H finalists
This week’s question: What are some of the takeaways from the 2019 season and how will they alter your approach to 2020?
Ian Kahn (Rotowire, @IanKahn4): The ball changes everything. The power is going to be there, but you still gotta get enough. It’s speed that will be in sharp demand. I’m looking for power and speed with my early picks next season. I expect that I will be passing on making sure that I get an ace. Scherzer’s struggles with health is a reminder that there really is no such thing as a guarantee as far as arms are concerned. I’m looking to start grabbing pitchers in the 3rd or even 4th round in 2020. Targets will be Trea Turner, Mondesi and Tatis from the jump. Gotta get those Stolen Bases or you will be playing from behind.
Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): I’m going to pay more attention batted ball outcomes for pitchers, especially those with several years of MLB data to look at, when evaluating pitchers for 2020. Given the ball and our HR era, I think a viable “tie-breaker” when looking at similar pitchers could be: who can I trust more to NOT give up home runs? Might mean that pitchers with elevated GB rates (and/or hr/9 rates better than league average) get a small bump for me in 2020. It’s not a cure-all by any means, but it IS something I will look at more closely as a way to combat the damage that the crazy HR numbers have on pitchers’ outcomes.
Lenny Melnick (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @LennyMelnick): Pitching Wins …Unlimited DL moves needed
Alex Chamberlain (Rotofraphs, @DolphHauldhagen): The juiced ball is here to stay at least through 2020 (as long as we take MLB/Rawlings at their word). Because hitting runs so deep now (these early mock drafts have been illuminating in this regard), I will either go very heavy on pitching early and rely on the absurd depth of power to keep me afloat, or lean away from pitching completely and wing it, loading up on the surefire bats to ensure my offense is competitive. I’m definitely better at drafting hitters than pitchers, so personally I’ll lean toward the former approach.
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): This is hardly an epiphany , but once again I’m reminded that paying big for closers is not a good idea. Remember when Treinen and Diaz were must have relievers.
Andrea Lamont (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @RotoLady): Don’t expect the fully juiced ball in 2020
Ariel Cohen (CBS Sports, @ATCNY): Paying for stolen bases in mid rounds … that is over-paying for stolen bases in mid rounds is turning into a poor investment. Ensuring that you get the power/speed combo players are quite important, and it is wise to come away with steals in the first three rounds of drafts. Also, streaming catchers was a fantastic proposition this year – there were so many #2 catchers or undrafted catchers that were viable and worthwhile at various times throughout the course of the season. You need not invest heavily in catching, you can stream effectively.
Steve Gardner (USAToday Fantasy Sports, @SteveAGardner): Ian and Ariel hit on my big takeaway. With stolen bases on the decline, I’m putting even more emphasis on getting at least one power/speed guy early. You just can’t afford to go fishing for one-category steals specialists when you need so much power to compete in the HR/RBI categories. As a result, I’ll bet former first-round “locks” who don’t run (Nolan Arenado, J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge) are going to see their ADPs fall and the guys who offer a little bit of everything (Trevor Story, Fernando Tatis Jr., Starling Marte) are going to move up.
Ryan Hallam (Fighting Chance Fantasy, @FightingChance): Positional flexibility doesn’t equal production. This year I was in the draft and hold league so we couldn’t make in season transactions, so I purposely took players eligible at multiple positions. Some of them turned into a mistake. Guys like Jurickson Profar, Marwin Gonzalez, and Ian Desmond were able to play more than one place, but if they didn’t provide stats, what good is the position flexibility. I also agree with guys above me, multiple tool players at the top are the way to go. I tried with Jose Altuve and the average was a disappointment for him and there were no stolen bases. Next year will be better!
Peter Kreutzer (Ask Rotoman, Fantasy Baseball Guide, @kroyte): We look for sure things, like get an ace or pick power/speed, and these ideas can work and they can not work, and there’s no way in any individual instance to know whether they will or not. The big thing, if you’re going after homers (for instance) is you find the guys you’re not paying for every homer they produce. Pete Alonso this year was a find, but if you’re paying first round money for him next year, probably not so much. He may not kill you, but the only way it works out is if you find next year’s Pete Alonso, too. The point is you have to keep shooting at the long shots, bought at a fair price (okay, or maybe a skooch more), and hope you land a few, which might put you over the top. That’s what it takes. Paying top dollar for top dollar talent, sure, but making the right picks on the breakout players is winning. Sorry, but this is the takeaway for every year, isn’t it?
Ron Shandler (RonShandler.com, @RonShandler): What Peter wrote. 2019 was no different than any other year. Some things we got right. Some things we got wrong. Those who rostered more overachievers than underachievers won. I typically don’t try to come up with takeaways from a single season because one season is one data point. Just because Max Scherzer didn’t earn back his draft slot in 2019 doesn’t mean that anchor starters are not a good first round/$30+ investment. There are some things that never change but odds are someone will still draft Kirby Yates as the first closer off the board next March. You just have to be smart by recognizing the fact that we aren’t all that smart.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): While in general I agree with Peter and Ron, I do think there are actionable trends influencing draft strategy. That said, I don’t believe the ball in the number one factor, even though it’s here to stay another year (at least). The trend I see involves saves. There are similar saves as previous seasons, but spread out among more relievers. I sense this will continue. The repercussion is there are fewer saves accrued in our fantasy standings. This is especially apropos in mixed leagues where two and a half closers are generally needed to compete. You can get away with one solid closer and mix and match for the second spot, availing more assets to funnel to hitting or starting pitching.
Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, @jeffwzimmerman): All discussion starts with the juiced ball. Most preseason profiles will have either have a juiced ball outcome or a non-juiced ball outcome (see Freddy Galvis). The ball could be less juiced, the same, or even more happy. How players are evaluated on these outcomes are key.
Tim McLeod (Prospect361.com, @RunTMc59006473): You can never have enough starting pitching. Leave the draft/auction with at least 3/4 potential starters stashed in your reserves. The days of the one dimensional speed types being an asset are over. They simply don’t run enough to compensate for the lack of power. Leave the Mallex Smith/Dee Gordon types on the board and let their owners figure out come July why they’re bottom three in the HR/RBI cats.
AJ Mass (ESPN, @AJMass): I don’t think I would change anything, to be honest. Look, at one point this season I had 12 players on the IL. Injuries are going to happen, and there’s no way to predict when they will. So, I’ll “trust the process” and cross my fingers that my bumps and bruises are a little bit more spread out over time in 2020.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): Step One, as some have implied, is not to overreact to 2019 when strategizing for 2020. I think I’m likelier to focus my top bids/picks on the studly power-speed hitters, and try to use a skills approach to aim for SPs with upside later and/or cheaper. And remember that there are lots of “second-tier” power-speed guys, whose total HR+SB aren’t in the high-50s or higher like Yelich/Acuna/Trout/Bellinger, but useful contributors like Ozzie Albies (21-15, .289), Whit Merrifield, Austin Meadows (27-10, .287), Tommy Pham (20-20, .280), Kolten Wong (10-20, .288), Amed Rosario (12-16, .284) … And many of these guys will offer playable Runs and RBI tallies as well.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (ESPN, @SultanofStat): I know everyone still clings dearly to the “don’t play for closers” mantra — and I get it, with the Edwin Diaz, Blake Treinen and Kenley Jansen seasons — but I don’t think it’s quite as easy to piece saves together in the lower tiers than it was in seasons past, particularly with the rise in closers-by-committee and the increasing rate of roster churn across MLB. One effect: It was more difficult to get those “proven closers,” guys who are solo finishers for their team with strong current-year skills, on the trade market in-season, unless you were willing to pay the rising premium. I’m not saying that you MUST get a premium closer at your draft. What I’m saying is that you can’t waltz in with a lazy, “oh, I’ll just fill that later” saves strategy, because I think you’re going to find it a bit more difficult to execute than you think.
Peter Kreutzer (Ask Rotoman, Fantasy Baseball Guide, @kroyte): Good points by Todd and Tristan about saves. Not getting the guy who has the job in spring training doesn’t mean you might get the guy who gets the job after the first guy fails, because he may be replaced by two or three guys.
Ryan Bloomfield (BaseballHQ, @RyanBHQ): Echoing the “don’t overreact” crowd — your 2019 takeaways might be vastly different depending on who you picked in your leagues. If you took Cole or Verlander early, you’re happier with the “draft aces early” strategy than those who took Snell or Bauer. Ditto the “don’t pay for saves” axiom with Diaz/Treinen owners… are the Kirby Yates, Josh Hader, and Felipe Vazquez owners singing the same tune? Probably not. Sure, the obvious juiced ball/low SB/low IP trends are important, but remember to remove your personal biases/experiences before you plan for 2020. And while few like to hear this, picking the right players always trumps macro-level draft strategy.
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): Don’t worry about the hitter you got stuck with projected for just 10 homers…he’ll most certainly break out to hit 40 dongs, like half the MLB player population. Since everyone is homering now and steals are way down, each steal is now worth significantly more than ever before, and exceeds each homer in value.
Zach Steinhorn (Baseball Prospectus, @zachsteinhorn): With steals becoming harder and harder to find, the natural reaction would be to place a premium on speed in drafts. But while each steal might be worth more than each homer, the home run spike also means that more homers are required to compete in the category. I agree with some of the above comments about the increased value of reliable power/speed guys but don’t undervalue the proven 30 HR/100 RBI players. You will need more of them than ever before.
Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): In hindsight the “livelier” ball should have led to less of a premium being paid for top Hitters (at least those whose name doesn’t rhyme with Strike Out). Of course, it’s impossible to say at this point what, if any, adjustments will be made to the baseball going in to the 2020 season. However, I’ll be keeping an eye on home run rates in Spring Training (in aggregate, not for particular players) for initial clues re whether any auction strategy adjustments appear warranted.
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @MikeGianella): My biggest takeaway is to make sure to pay attention/keep paying attention to the categories we’re not talking about nearly as much as. Batting average still matters, and putting together a strong AVG (or, in Tout, OBP) squad is still important. The second takeaway is tanking isn’t going anywhere and paying a little extra for players on first division teams with better defenses/pitching staffs/opportunities for wins, runs and RBI matters even more than it used to.
Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): I think Mike’s point about the elite teams being a wide margin above the pack, and the bottom-end teams being awful will hold true again in 2020. Paying slightly more for the players on the elite teams could pay off in a big way with the extra counting stats they’ll pile up. I think the players whose value comes overwhelmingly from steals will rarely end up on my rosters next year, as the premiums paid for those particular bags will be even more dangerous at the inflated price. I’ll be looking for steals from players who do a lot of other things as well, meaning I’m a lot more likely to pay top dollar for Christian Yelich than to pay $4-5 less for Nolan Arenado…even though Arenado is a great player in his own right.
Michael Stein (Fantasy Judgment, @FantasyJudgment): My first year in Tout Wars Draft & Hold League definitely made me realize that I need to put a higher priority on pitching depth. I had several pitchers go down with lengthy injuries and just could never make up any ground in the categories because I was forced to start less than average options. I also did not focus much on stolen bases so that is one category that needs greater attention, even if there are fewer and fewer optimal speedsters to choose from each year.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): Lots of talk about the ball. For those who may have missed it, this piece suggests there won’t be any changes until 2021 at the earliest:
Several Tout Wars leagues are coming down to the wire so while the bidding has slowed, the picks are as important as the first week of the season. Below is a summary of the top free agent bids in each of the five Tout Wars leagues, with links to the detailed bidding action following our 8 p.m. ET deadline each Sunday evening. All prices are on a $1000 base.
After you scan the detail below, please join our live chat, starting at 9 p.m. ET Sunday evening, to discuss these results with Todd Zola of Mastersball and other Touts.
There were only eight acquisitions this week, five arms and three bats. Leading the bidding was Larry Schechter, spending 32 units on Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo was finally calle dup Sunday, with the expectation of debuting mid-week against the daunting Houston Astros.
Colton and the Wolfman invested 6 FAAB units in Mariners starter Justus Sheffield who lines up for an intriguing home two-step against the Reds and White Sox.
Jason Collette hopes the Baltimore Orioles can provide him with a boost, grabbing Mark Trumbo and Austin Hays. Trumbo spent most of the season on the IL before debuting last week while Hays was called up over the weekend. Hays is reportedly heading to the Arizona Fall League but will see a little action at the MLB level first.
The NL Touts opened their FAAB wallets this week. After tonight there’s only two weeks and hey, you can’t take it with you. Eleven players were picked up seven different combatants.
The top bid came courtesy of Lenny Melnick, looking to replace the unfortunate loss of Javier Baez with a $75 Cole Tucker.
Phil Hertz was busy, adding Ross Stripling for 51, Cory Spangenberg for 25 and Michael Lorenzen for 0. Stripling has entered the Dodgers rotation while Spangenberg is filling the voids left by Keston Hiura and Mike Moustakas.
Brian Walton was equally diligent, snagging a trio of his own. Julio Urias was the high bid at $30 while also adding Fernandez Abad for a buck and Nick Martini for a couple bones.
Eight of the 15 Warriors were active this week, giving a dozen players new homes. Jeff Zimmerman must have a thing for Baskin Robbins, scooping three pitchers for $31 each. Tyler Mahle, Spencer Turnbull and Asher
Wojciechowski look to sweeten Zimmerman’s staff.
Brent Hershey is bullish on Alexander Toro, offering a $26 try on the Astros third baseman. Several other batters drew double digit bids with league leader Scott Swanay bidding 16 on Matt Joyce and Al Melchior spending 14 on Seattle’s Dylan Moore and Cincinnati’s Phil Ervin.
Tout Draft was the busiest league with 14 winnings bids shared by seven Touts. Rudy Gamble was the big spender, dropping a league high 38 units on Patrick Sandoval along with 3 on Asher Wojciechowski.
Adam Ronis spent the most on a batter, investing $34 on Alberto Mondesi. Despite being advised not to dive, Mondesi is running wild, stealing six in the week he’s been back.
Tim McLeod bought a pair of hitters, hoping a $27 try on Garrett Cooper and $7 on Sean Murphy reinforces his batting ledger.
Head to Head
It’s playoff time with Ian Kahn defeating Ryan Bloomfield and Alex Chamberlain besting Dan Strafford. In the semis, Kahn squares off with Jake Ciely while Chamberlain draws regular-season leader Clay Link.
There were seven bids this week with Kahn’s $37 on Carlos Martinez the only non-zero offering.
Ciely was busiest, supplementing his squad with Joc Pederson, Kolten Wong and Nathan Eovaldi.
This is the first of our weekly reports for the final month of 2019, summarizing the top free agent bids in each of the five Tout Wars leagues, with links to the detailed bidding action following our 8 p.m. ET deadline each Sunday evening. All prices are on a $1000 base.
After you scan the detail below, please join our live chat, starting at 9 p.m. ET Sunday evening, to discuss these results with Todd Zola of Mastersball and other Touts.
Though a number of teams have announced final-month call-ups, playing time for most of them is going to remain an open question. Perhaps for that reason, bidding was not aggressive for newcomers. In the only-leagues, top prospects like Dodgers infielder Gavin Lux have been rostered for some time.
This week in the Tout league focused on the Junior Circuit, 15 players were picked up off the waiver wire.
$197 of Patrick Davitt’s cash went to the acquisition of Oakland first sacker/outfielder Seth Brown. Perhaps you’ve heard the 27-year old rookie has seven RBI and a .440 average in his first six MLB games.
Infielder Mike Freeman of the Indians was picked up by Chris Liss for $90. The 32-year old reached base four times on Sunday and seems a decent source of on-base percentage in AL-only leagues such as this one.
A pair of Rangers, Emmanuel Clase ($29) and Ronald Guzman ($25), went to Colton and the Wolfman and Nando DiFino, respectively. Clase earned a win in relief on Sunday and may be earning more meaningful innings while first sacker Guzman is back from the minors, likely pushing Logan Forsythe into a part-time role.
15 free agents were also added to National League Tout rosters this weekend.
One call-up who arrived early due to injury is Rockies outfielder Sam Hilliard. The 25-year old hit 35 home runs, plated 1010 and stole 22 bags at Triple-A and is getting playing time with David Dahl injured again (no surprise). ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft snared Hilliard for $124.
Cockcroft also purchased Milwaukee’s Travis Shaw for $50. It has been a lost season for the infielder, to the point he was banished to Triple-A. Yet, with rookie Keston Hiura on the injured list, Shaw could work his way back into the picture.
Minor leaguer Ian Anderson was picked up by Lenny Melnick for $35. The Braves pitching prospect hasn’t been called up yet, to my knowledge, but would be worth watching if/when he makes his MLB debut.
It was very busy in Mixed Auction this week with 27 free agents acquired.
Leading the way is Lux at $103, purchased by Al Melchior. With Max Muncy out due to injury, the Dodgers want their top prospect to play.
Melchior also acquired the Twins’ Jake Cave, for $64. The outfielder has been hot recently, with five of his seven home runs on the year having come in the last nine games.
At $99, ESPN’s Eric Karabell added Rockies’ outfielder Hilliard.
Jeff Zimmerman picked up Detroit pitcher Daniel Norris for $55. The lefty has a 3.75 ERA over his most recent four starts, and 13 strikeouts over 12 innings. In other words, Norris is pitching exactly three frames each time out. No good for wins, but his ratios are improved.
We are back to this week’s magic number of 15 players, purchased via FAAB bidding this week in Mixed Draft.
A’s pitcher Sean Manaea joined the roster of Adam Ronis for $88. In his first outing of the season back from shoulder surgery, the lefty kept the Yankees off the scoreboard for five innings on Sunday.
Bidding amounts really dropped off from there, with $23 the price paid by Ronis to purchase Nate Lowe. The Rays first baseman is back from the minors for the final month. The 24-year old hit a two-run home run in his Sunday return and could be a nice final-month power source – if he gets the at-bats.
Perry Van Hook spent $17 each on pitcher Andrew Kittredge of Tampa and outfielder Jake Bauers of Cleveland. Reliever Kittedge has struck out better than a batter per inning, but has been inconsistent as of late. Bauers is back up from the minors with Tyler Naquin injured, but his playing time is unknown.
Head to Head
In Sunday’s head to head bidding in the Head to Head league, 17 players were added to team rosters, with amounts paid muted.
Ryan Bloomfield had the rare trifecta of having submitted the top three winning bids. First up was Phillies outfielder Corey Dickerson for $26. The veteran has a pair of long balls and five RBI in his last six outings.
$21 brought Hanser Alberto onto Bloomfield’s roster. The Orioles middle infielder went 9-for-18 on the week, though eight of the hits were singles. Alberto is quietly batting .321 with a .343 OBP this season, both career highs by a considerable margin.
Finally, old hand Homer Bailey, now with Oakland, was a $13 acquisition by Bloomfield. The former Reds star has a solid 2.22 ERA over his most recent four starts.
This week’s question: There have been several callups in August. Who is most likely to be a contributor down the stretch?
Derek VanRiper (Rotowire, @DerekVanRiper): Aristides Aquino might have already locked up the actual most valuable player called up in August, but I think Josh Rojas has a chance to be one of the most impactful callups down the stretch. The early returns through 13 games are nothing to write home about (.194/.275/.222 entering play Tuesday), but his combination of plate skills, and path to regular playing time (at least against right-handed pitching) for the D-backs should be enough for him to secure a place in the team’s 2020 plans as well. On the pitching side, I’m beginning to buy into Logan Webb as the most valuable starter added to a rotation in the past month. Innings-wise, he doesn’t appear to have a hard cap that will shut him down early, and pitching half of his games in San Francisco alone makes him a home streamer in most mixed-league situations.
Seth Trachtman (Rotoworld, @sethroto): Beyond Aristides Aquino, Nick Solak looks like he will have the opportunity to be a major offensive contributor. He’s become an everyday player since Texas promoted him, getting most of his playing time at DH, and has been in a relatively favorable spot hitting mostly fifth and sixth in the Rangers batting order. Arlington is obviously a nice backdrop for hitters, and Solak has consistently hit as a pro at every stop. He hasn’t flashed the steals this year that he did last season (21 stolen bases in 126 games at Double-A in 2018) but has already started to produce for Texas. He’s consistently shown batting average and power ability, and could be a nice source for offense at the relatively thin second base spot as the Rangers try to see if he’s worthy of a regular spot to open 2020.
Tim McLeod (Prospect361.com, @RunTMc59006473): The news today that David Peralta is looking at shoulder surgery, creates an opportunity for Tim Locastro and he can fly. He could very easily prove to be a difference maker if one is chasing stolen bases. Now that the playing time concerns have been cleared up in San Francisco, Mauricio Dubon is an intriguing option.
Andrea LaMont (LennyMelnickFantasySports, @RotoLady): Sept Callup Intl Lg MVP Ryan Mountcastle Balt
Peter Kreutzer (Ask Rotoman, Fantasy Baseball Guide, @kroyte): As an owner of Dubon in a keeper league I’m hoping Tim is right, but the bigger point is that right or wrong, the issue at this point in the season is playing time. Aquino’s massive start may well prove the most valuable, even if he doesn’t do another thing, that’s in the bank, but for the guys who are just getting the call now the issue isn’t so much talent as it is opportunity and who gets hot. Plus who gets the most at bats against the Triple-A caliber pitchers they’ve already shown they can hit. These are guys you plug into your weakest situations after spending whatever FAAB you have for the guy/s who’s/’re the best fit position-wise and cross your fingers. You might get this year’s Luke Voit. You might not.
Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): Aristides Aquino seems like the obvious choice among those who’ve made their MLB debuts this month. If we expand the set of players being considered to include guys who’ve recently returned to the majors and might impact your fantasy team’s fortunes in September, I would include Mike Foltynewicz, David Bote, Greg Allen, and Aaron Civale.
Patrick Davitt (BaseballHQ, @patrickdavitt): Agree with Peter that Aquino is the obvious choice for PT reasons, one of few reasons CIN fans will have to buy tickets down the stretch. I’m hoping CHW calls up Luis Robert, who ripped through three levels of the minors and slashed .331/.381/.625, including .302/.350/.637 at AAA. Free swinger, with 4.5-5.0 K/bb ratios. 14 HR/36 RBI/7 SB (2 CS) in 147 AB in AAA as well.
Charlie Wiegert (CDM Sports, @GFFantasySports): You always take notice of a Rockies hitter Sam Hilliard who hit 35 hr’s at triple A got the call and homered in his first big league game. The Rockies have good reason to play him a lot in September to see what they’ve got, so 5-10 HR’s is possible !
Glenn Colton (Fantasy Alarm, @GlennColton1): I know this is chalk but Aquino is just so locked in. With time left in August, he already has hit more dingers in his first 100 AB than any other player in history. Oh and hitting in Cincy in the summer will not hurt!
Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): Aristides Aquino. 13 HRs in 102 at bats with a acceptable 22.5% K rate. A wRC+ of 186 makes him a must play and game changer down the stretch.
Eric Karabell (ESPN, @karabelleric): The Rockies still have a nine-game homestand left and finish with 3 games at home, so we cannot ignore outfielder Sam Hilliard, a lefty slugger that hit 35 home runs and stole 22 bases at Triple-A. Perhaps he is not really a prospect, but those numbers were not a fluke. Oakland’s Seth Brown is another non-prospect type with swing-and-miss in his game but he bashed 37 homers at Las Vegas and should be more productive than Khris Davis, if the team lets him prove it.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): EK for the win – love those calls. As an aside, why do second division teams call up promising prospects only to sit them when they initially struggle? Isn’t that the point of looking at young players, to allow them to get over the hump with little pressure? Sigh. Anyway, hopefully the Seattle Mariners just let Jake Fraley play despite looking overmatched early. I’m also interested in shortstop Willi Castro and hope the Detroit Tigers give him a long leash.
Rob Leibowitz (Rotoheaven, @rob_leibowitz): I am taking a gamble (picked him up last week in AL Tout) that Sean Murphy of the A’s gets some significant playing time this September. He’s missed a lot of time due to a knee injury earlier this season, but adding his bat and glove behind the plate would be a nice addition to their team. He’s currently raking in Triple-A at a high level (.310/.390/.638) (not one I expect to continue), but certainly an improvement over anyone else Oakland is putting out there behind the plate. Hoping he’ll be the next Terry Steinbach, possibly with a little more punch and patience.
Clay Link (Rotowire, @claywlink): Nick Solak should be owned in all competitive leagues; he’s now batting cleanup for Texas. I’m kicking myself for having Solak as a lower priority than Willi Castro in AL LABR last weekend. I could have had Solak. Castro caught my eye with his .360 wOBA, 113 wRC+, 11 homers and 17 steals at Triple-A, but it’s been a tough go for him this week. At least his playing time appears safe. Sam Hilliard is really interesting. The Rockies are baffling in how they handle prospects, but Hilliard is off to a nice start, and David Dahl is still not even jogging on his injured ankle. Hilliard will likely be a top add this week, and I think for good reason. I’m also looking forward to seeing what Sheldon Neuse can do, and I’m getting a sense that Bobby Dalbec is increasingly likely to get the call. Dalbec could get his feet wet with Mitch Moreland set to become a free agent this offseason.
Phil Hertz (BaseballHQ, @prhz50): Besides the obvious Aquino pick, I like Hilliard next.
Justin Mason (Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Fangraphs, Fantasy Alarm, @JustinMasonFWFB): Kyle Tucker is reportedly going to be up September 2nd. He should have a huge impact the rest of the way.
Al Melchior (FNTSY Radio, @almelchiorbb): Aristides Aquino, Nick Solak and Sam Hilliard have all been mentioned, and they would be my top three in that order. This is far more speculative, but there’s a chance that Paul Sewald could enter the Mets’ saves picture. Of course, Sewald isn’t a rookie, and he had even been up earlier this year, but since getting called up in mid-August, he’s been an entirely different and better pitcher. He has 13 Ks in 7 IP with a 15 percent SwStr% and a 22% called strike rate. His velocity is up considerably, so he may sustain this, and there could be an opportunity to replace Edwin Díaz and allow Seth Lugo to set up.
Brent Hershey (Baseball HQ, @BrentHQ): Good names throughout here, as I’m a late-season fan of Solak, Hilliard and Bobby Dalbec (AB-dependent of course; but has the raw power to go on an Aquino-lite Sept HR run). But how about a pitcher? This one is a deep leaguer, for sure, but Hunter Harvey seems like he’s carving out a late-innings role for BAL; they’re certainly pre-disposed to trying stuff in Sept. Harvey started at Bowie, but I don’t think his RP numbers at AAA have quite gotten the attention they deserve: 22K / 5 BB in 16 IP. Similar results in MLB, and we all know that BAL bullpen has been in flux all year. Could be as good a choice as any to grab a save or four over the next several weeks.
Perry Van Hook (Mastersball, @): well IF he gets the call, I would bet on Gavin Lux who would be playing second base for the Dodgers. Max Muncy is on the IL with a crack in his right wrist but the Dodger brass hasn’t made a decision yet on whether they will bring Lux up next week as they’re hoping Muncy won’t be out long.
Todd Zola: Agreed Perry, but that’s usually earlier in the season with high profile prospects. When you call up someone in August, there’s really no time to send them back down. With guys emerging this season and not gifted with prospect pedigree, may as well let them learn under fire. One last general point, some second division teams may wait until the minor league playoffs are over (if they’re involved) before advancing prospects. The example Rob offered, Sean Murphy is a good example as Las Vegas has teh best record in the PCL. And TZ – sometimes when young players struggle the club doesn’t want them to go through a prolonged period that might affect them mentally so they send them back down before (they think) that will happen
Just three days remain in the final weekly contest of the Tout H2H regular season, and while Clay Link sits safely atop the standings, earning a first-week bye, there is plenty of other action as teams scramble toward the playoffs.
Ian Kahn and Jake Ciely are locked in a duel for second place, which earns the second place team a first week playoff bye. These standings reflect the current state of this week’s games (remember that each week a team can win 2 points for winning hitting, 2 points for winning pitching and 2 points for winning the overall points, or lose 2 points in each for losing hitting, pitching and overall).
Coincidentally, Ciely and Kahn are playing the teams with the worst records going into this final week, but while Kahn has so far done what’s necessary, Ciely’s pitching has struggled. He has a bunch of starters with tough matchups this weekend, while Joe Pisapia is throwing mostly relievers. The bottom line is Ciely needs to hold onto his hitting Ws while also winning either the pitching or overall points to secure second place on his own. He otherwise needs Kahn to falter.
In the battle for sixth place, which is existential when it comes to playoff chances, Ryan Bloomfield is up 4-2 on the week over Alex Chamberlain, who is in fifth place on the season, while Paul Sporer is down 0-6 to Dan Strafford, who is overall fourth. This promises to be a fraught weekend for Bloomfield and Sporer, with Bloomfield having the bigger margin of error (if he takes the hitting points, too, from Chamberlain he should find himself in fifth place).
A reminder about the playoff format: The first week, teams 1 and 2 have a bye. 3 plays 6 and 4 plays 5.
The next week 1 plays the lower seeded remaining team, while 2 plays the higher seeded remaining team.
Weeks 3 and 4, the two remaining teams face off for two weeks. The winner is Tout Wars H2H champion.
Phil Hertz may have dominated the Tout Daily field in season, but Derek VanRiper topped the 10 team field in the weekend’s three day contest, earning the Tout Wars Daily 2019 championship.