At the All Star break Adam Ronis was in first place, Rudy Gamble was in third place, 17.5 points behind, and Grey Albright was in sixth place, 11.5 points even farther back.
By mid August, Gamble had moved into first place, Ronis was three and a half points behind in second, and Albright was in fifth, 10.5 more points behind Ronis.
On September 13th, two weeks ago, Gamble and Ronis were tied at 110.5, and Albright was in eighth place, 22 points behind.
Since then Albright has gained 17 points, six in ERA and three in WHIP, to vault over six teams and land in second place.
You know who helped? Jake Arrieta, having perhaps the greatest half-season of any pitcher ever, and Stephen Strasburg, whose early-season woes have been forgotten. In fact, all of Albright’s pitchers got hot at once, and two weeks with 130 innings of 1.794 ERA and .959 WHIP changed his season.
Asked what it was going to take for him to win, Albright said, “I need a miracle.
Actually…
Considering my team’s top home run hitter is Khris Davis and I had Strasburg on an off-year, I’d say I already had the miracle by being in third.”
Maybe, but consider that just three days ago, Albright was six and a half points behind Ronis and Gamble, who were tied. Team Albright is on the move.
And Team Gamble has gone in the wrong direction. What happened? Rudy writes:
Despite topping the league in R/HR/RBI, my team lost a stomach-churning 9 points last week because my overachieving pitching staff (through August) continued its September swoon thanks to regression, injuries (my top SP and RP – Kluber and Perkins – have contributed 12 IP of 0 Wins, 1 Save and a ~9.00 ERA in September), bad scheduling luck (5 of my SPs have had away starts at Coors in past 10 days), and some regretful decisions on rostering/FAAB (just about anything would’ve been better than rolling with Brett Anderson’s 2 start week last week).
But if I could lose all those points in a short time, I can gain them as well. My offense has been rolling all 2nd half and could snag a couple points with another good week. I will definitely need luck to beat Ronis in OBP (down .001 which would require being about +0.023 for the week) and SBs (tied but he has Pollock/Ellsbury and my best SB guys are Parra/Lindor). I picked up Robbie Ross and Feliz on FAAB to pair with Tolleson in hopes of gaining as much as 3 points in Saves (2 behind a troika of teams). There are ERA and WHIP points to be had. I will likely lose another K point given Perry is going with 9 SPs.
When I talked with Grey earlier last week, I gave myself 3:1 odds because my pitching felt so vulnerable. After my worst fears were realized, it’s definitely worse than that. But final weeks of the season can be real unpredictable (c’mon Cubs/Pirates – you have to rest Cole/Arrieta) so fingers crossed.
When asked what it would take to catch Ronis and Abright, he said, “A very good pitching week, a solid hitting week, and average or worse weeks for Adam and Grey. “
Which puts Adam Ronis in the catbird seat, at least for now, though he isn’t feeling that comfortable, it seems:
My team needs several categories to go my way in order for me to win. Rudy Gamble and I have exchanged the top spot several times over the last couple of weeks. Wins are one key category. Going into Saturday, Gamble and I each have 82 wins. Gamble is one stolen base in front of me. With great performances from Rich Hill and Gerrit Cole on Friday, I moved one spot ahead of Gamble in ERA. It was one start but the two-hit shutout, 10-strikeout performance by Hill was huge. For several weeks I rolled with three closers and it has given me 13 points in the save category and an advantage of seven saves over the next guy. At one point, I was in the middle of a crowded back. Tom Wilhelmsen was a nice addition. If the last few weeks are any indication, it’s going to come down to the final day and making lineup decisions for the final week will be key.
In this week’s FAAB Ronis picked up Dustin Pedroia, Albright claimed Kurt Suzuki and Jordy Mercer, and Gamble picked up Robbie Ross, Neftali Feliz and JP Arencibia.
How does the volatility index look?
Ronis has 5.5 points to gain and 5.5 to lose, which gives him a max of 116 and a low of 105.
Gamble could gain 11.5 points and could lose 7.5. If everything went right he could finish with 114, while if it all went south he end up at 95.
Albright could gain six points, and potentially lose 8.5, which means his best score is 111.5, and his worst is 97.
Follow the standings all week at onRoto.com.