This week’s question: What is one of your favorite pieces of advice when asked how to go about category management in roto leagues down the stretch?
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): DO NOT ignore ratios (BAvg, OBP, ERA, WHIP). There is actually more movement in ratios than counting categories.
Larry Schechter (Winning Fantasy Baseball, @LarrySchechter): This should be obvious, but you only have six weeks so you can’t make up large deficits. Concentrate on what you can realistically achieve, and if you have a surplus in a category see if a trade makes sense; i.e. your big SB guy isn’t needed anymore if you are 18 steals ahead of the next guy.
Ryan Hallam (Fighting Chance Fantasy, @FightingChance): Obviously you have to look at the categories that you really can make up ground (if needed), but also don’t forget to look who is close behind you in categories as well. Holding on to the points that you have is just as important as trying to pick up points in other categories
Paul Sporer (Fangraphs, @sporer): You already put it, Todd, but I always quote you when I say it anyway, so let me underscore the ratios point. They MOVE a lotttt throughout the year. Never give up on them if you’re truly trying to make a run up the standings. This is anecdotal, but in a month span, I went from 15th to 4th in AVG in my Main Event (thank you very, Xavier Edwards among others!). The denominator’s constant growth obviously makes it tougher as we move forward, but far from impossible and too often I’ve seen folks give up on achievable ratios only to fall short of their title or cash spot because of it.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): OK, here’s another one. We’re around 75% of the way through. You’re not six counting stats behind the next guy, you’re eight. Granted, rosters have changed and the growth won’t be linear, but to make up six counting stats, you need six over above your current pace plus two (assuming the current pace continues). The main point is keep in mind your competitors are also doing the category math and may play some defense on your attempt to make up ground.
Rick Wolf (SiriusXM Fantasy, @RickWolf1): This is a super complicated topic. Here is what Colton & The Wolfman have been doing for years. It starts with monitoring all year and making adjustments real-time in a number of directions. With Tout Wars’ amazing flexibility, you have the opportunity to add two extra pitchers if you want in the SW positions, you cannot ignore that. Take each category and determine what is necessary in order to get into the top 3 positions. If all categories finish in the Top 3, you win. Look at each amount needed for the AVG/OBP, WHIP and ERA first. You can determine movement based on the number of IPs potentially left or the number of ABs. Now, you can use addition by subtraction. If we are ahead in HRs, you can DROP a HR guy who has a bad average or OBP. You are ALLOWED to do that to win. You can drop a good pitcher who hurts you ERA/WHIP. Now, most of this should be done with trades before the deadline, but that said, closing from here is harder if trades didn’t make sense. Maximizing at bats will help with runs and RBI. Maximizing starts can help with wins and strikeouts so if the number of innings of BAD ratios won’t make you drop from Top 3, GO FOR IT! CTW has employed 9 or 10 starters for the last 3 weeks to make up ground in those categories as bad innings wouldn’t move us more than a point or two in the ratio categories. Last thing, critical. Steals can be grabbed as teams expand rosters. Use that last SW or hitting spot to cycle speed through. Three to five stolen bases can be multiple points in September.
Scott Chu (Pitcher List, @ifthechufits): There is no such thing as “best player available” in category leagues at this point. There is only “what does this guy give me and at what cost”. Asking if you should drop Lawrence Butler with Michael Harris II’s return is suddenly an awkward question, as these guys do VERY different things. Overall rankings of hitters matter less and less every day starting in March, and at this point in the season, your personal rankings should be entirely tailored to your needs and, to a lesser extent, the needs of your opponents. The ultimate question at this stage is simply “does this guy provide what I need, and if so, is it worth the cost I’ll have to pay (in either FAAB or losses in other categories).”
Mike Gianella (Baseball Prospectus, @): Pay attention to the bottom of the standings. There will be teams in nearly every league who are dead in the water and only making moves for next year in keeper leagues or have completely or somewhat checked out in redraft. These teams will be behind you in most Roto categories (there’s a reason they’re at the bottom), but sometimes there are teams dominating in 1-3 categories that stink everywhere else. These teams typically sink like a stone in those categories, and a point or two you thought was out of reach might not be out of reach at all. These opportunities aren’t plentiful or easy, but if you’re in a tight race picking up 2-3 points like this can make all the difference.
Fred Zinkie (Yahoo/Rotowire, @FredZinkieMLB): Here’s something I learned over the years… don’t get too comfortable in any category at this point in the season. Sure, we want to focus on the categories that are tightly bunched. But a seemingly safe cushion can evaporate quickly. Especially in the ratio categories. For example, let’s say that you have a 10-steal buffer. You’re feeling safe. Not targeting speedsters anymore. All of a sudden, your team inexplicably steals 1 or 2 bases for a week or two, and the gap is gone. All of a sudden, you’re in a tight race. Hopefully you didn’t cut all of your speedsters, because now you need them. The standings can still move quickly at this time of the season. I’ll change my tune in about three weeks, but for now, I’m still playing straight up in most circumstances.
Chris Blessing (BaseballHQ, @C_Blessing): I just had a talk with a BHQ subscriber about throwing out biases towards players you’d never roster. If a dude fills the need you are deficient in, it’s time to give him a look. I also echo the sentiments of Todd Zola. Paying attention to ratios this deep into the season is worth much more than paying attention to the counting stats. Weird things happen when the ratios are bunched up this late. A positive swing in your direction could yield 3 or 4 points in most formats.
Brian Walton (CreativeSports2, @B_Walton): Look for win-win deals where you can help yourself in a category, while helping a trade partner pass the team you are trying to catch in another category.
Derek VanRiper (The Athletic, @DerekVanRiper): Look at the categories in which the teams you’re competing with are most vulnerable in losing ground. If your trade deadline hasn’t passed yet, you might be able to trade with a third party to help them pass your competitor, chipping away at their overall points total and helping yourself in the process.
Doug Dennis (BaseballHQ, @dougdennis41): If you have surplus in a category, trade it without worrying that you are getting a good deal. The less than perfect deal is more important at this stage than keeping a surplus.
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire, @JeffBoggis): When managing categories, look to where you can have your opponents surpass a category that will help you against those opponents that are ahead of you in the league standings. Typically, this is the time of year where teams in the bottom half of their standings start to focus on fantasy football. You almost have to roster manage their teams to prod them to make roster moves to where it’s to your advantage, while at the same time, staying ethical. I may not be able to move up in the standings by myself and it’s OK to have other league managers assist with having them insert a base stealer on their bench if it will help them pass teams ahead of you in that category. You can return the favor next season if the roles are reversed.
Scott Swanay (FantasyBaseballSherpa, @fantasy_sherpa): Do both a short-term (next week) and longer-term (rest-of-season at this point) analysis but err on the side of prioritizing short-term gains if choices become necessary.
Todd Zola (Mastersball, @toddzola): I’m going to disagree with Jeff B. It’s fine for the commissioner to remind the league to be active all season, but I don’t feel it’s proper for one team manager to prod another to make moves in a self-serving interest. Collusion is a dangerous accusation, and I’m not quite sure this fits the definition. but it certainly feels underhanded and against the spirit of competition.
Frank Ammirante (The GameDayHQ, @FAmmiranteTFJ): If you’re behind in Wins and Strikeouts, you can punt saves by benching your closers for starters. This is best in weekly leagues.
Michael Govier (Pallazzo Podcast, @mjgovier): What’s a number that’s feasible to attain with a set range of time? Also, ratio stats are harder to climb the ranks in than certain counting stats are. In my Main Event for example, our WHIP is too far gone to be able to reach any meaningful change. Even if we went down from 1.23 to 1.20 in the next month, we’d only net 2 positions higher. Compare that to pitching K’s where a 35-55 K gap can net us up to 5 points in the standings in that category. That means fire up more guys like Brayan Bello who can miss bats, but who also may cause trouble for our WHIP which can’t get much worse in a hurry. This scenario means it’s worth it to try to gain ground in K’s. With the WHIP in our Main, it’s too little too late to make it worth it. The numerical value of 2-3 spots gained in a category by season’s end doesn’t impact our bottom line compared to the K’s where it seems it’s worth the trouble because 5 points gained is something to sing about! Batting AVG, ERA & WHIP have a swollen sample size by mid-August. Too many 7ER outings by Logan Allen & company this year make the damage tough to overcome. A guy like Xavier Edwards though with his 20 SBs since July creates a bigger uptick in the SB category which makes season-long change over the last two months of the season viable.
Ray Murphy (BaseballHQ, @RayHQ): In terms of league standings, try to project whether you can gain enough points to cut whatever your deficit is in half… if you can do that, you can consider that “close enough” in that you can at least hope that the team you’re chasing will lose enough points to account for the other half of the deficit. Obviously better if you have enough upside to completely chase them down yourself, but even if you can’t find enough “potential attainable points” to close the entire deficit yourself, it doesn’t mean that you can’t get there… with some help.
Mike Podhorzer (Fangraphs, @MikePodhorzer): It’s so much easier to gain in counting stat categories at this point, plus ratios are volatile to begin with so they will be quite unpredictable over the final month+, particularly batting average. Also — punting your worst starting pitcher is just as good as trading for a starter you hope improves your ratios.
Eric Samulski (Rotoballer, @SamskiNYC): I always tell people to make a physical list for each of your leagues. It’s not enough to say “I’m close in saves.” I want to know exactly how many points I can realistically gain or lose in each category in each of my leagues. If I can gain 6 but lose 3 then that’s a 9-point category and is likely one I really need to focus resources on. Once I do that and I see a category where there will realistically be very little movement, I can drop players who only really help me there. Yes, that means even dropping a really good closer if I already have 3 and don’t need saves anymore.
Brian Entrekin (Fantasy Pros, BaseballHQ, @bdentrek): I’ve been doing it for a few weeks, but each weekend, before FAAB I make a list of which categories I can benefit more from via FAAB for the rest of season. Attack those categories harder as the weeks go on. Also, an obvious one, counting stats are usually easier to gain roto points than ratios.
Andy Behrens (Yahoo Fantasy Sports, @andybehrens): Don’t let the fear of losing a trade prevent you from winning a league. This is the ideal time of year to make a move for a category specialist who can give you a big points bump in a short period of time. When you deal for a single-category contributor, there’s a decent chance you’re going to take a loss on the trade in terms of the value of the players involved. But if you have a shot to add 5 or 6 roto points by adding a closer or base-stealer, it might be the move that wins you a title.
Erik Halterman (Rotowire, @erik_halterman): Not a specific recommendation, by my main piece of advice regarding category management is to do more of it than you think and to do it earlier than you think. I’ve faded down the stretch in a few too many leagues in recent years, and I think it’s because I spend too long in talent-maximization mode and shift over to category-management mode too late.
Eric Cross (Rotoballer, @EricCross04): This is the time of year that you really need to look at each category closely and figure out which category can you gain the most ground in, which categories are tight with teams right behind you, and which categories you have a decent gap down to the next manager. You don’t need to win steals by a massive margin, especially if you could put someone else in your lineup that could move the needle for you in other categories.
Anthony Aniano (Rotoballer, @AAnianoFantasy): You can’t make up ground in every category, so try to maintain leads and be selective in the categories you can gain ground. The free agent add you place FAAB on may not be the best player available, but he may be the best player to help you gain a needed point or two.
Matt Cederholm (Baseball HQ, @TheBigHurtHQ): Make sure you factor in what other teams are doing. Especially in keeper leagues, teams out of contention may fall in several categories. Contending teams will improve. That’s an important factor in deciding which categories to attack.
Peter Kreutzer (Rotoman.substack.com, @kroyte): Lots of excellent observations above. Roster configuration is always a series of choices, and the temptation is to choose based on an average expected week, but if you’re trailing and trying to catch up you don’t need average weeks, you need great ones. Shape your roster to target the most gettable points but do your best to also maximize in all categories. You never know when you’ll fall into a 20 homer, or 15 steal, or 8 win week. It could be this week, if you’re lucky.
