Category: About Tout Wars

We’re in the overnight, but Jason Collette should start blogging at about 10am on Sunday morning.

Is everybody there Jason?

Cool. I’m going to hit the train. See you in a bit.

We will begin at 10:15 and I guarantee 2 things: Kershaw is thrown out in the 1st two players and he goes at least $42

we’re underway & Anthony Rizzo is first off the board for $38 to Grey Albright from Razzball

Carty predictably throws out Kershaw who was never going for $38 again as he did in NL LABR. Carty had to pay $3 more to get him this time at $41

Stanton goes $39 after opening at $33

Kyle Schwarber goes for $26

The Shark goes $15 to Gardner. New park, new hope

Scherzer opens at $11, goes $32 to Ray Guilfoyle

Jay Bruce goes $18 to Hertz

Raisel Iglesias $13 to Tristan. Had that one penciled in. Exactly what he went for in LABR. I’ll be comparing pitching values since they’re consistent but not bats because of the OBP difference

Pollock goes $31 to his lordship

Goldschmidt goes to Gardner for $43. No chance Harper goes under $45 now

Lenny Melnick throwing out closers as he always does but one year, he may actually buy one. Zola buys Jansen for $19

Rosenthal $17 to Tristan. Both TR & KJ went $1 under their LABR prices

Harvey $26 to Guilfoyle , $1 higher than LAB R

KKKKris Bryant goes $35 to Wilderman

Strasburg $29 to Hertz – was $27 in LABR

Arenado $33 to Behrens

Posey $28 to Gardner

so Harper only went $45 to Behrens. Great call Mike L!

Dee Gordon $30 to Razzball

Addison Russell — not a sleeper and not in a shallow SS NL pool, goes $19 to Tristan

staying on the SS run, Seager comes out at a dollar and sloooooooooooooowly climbs up to $23 to Gardner. Tristan pushed him up to $19 to nearly double up on the young MI pair

McCutcheon goes $37 to Hertz

Hector Olivera $12 to Lenny

Matt Carpenter $29 to Walton. That’s one you could have etched in stone

Mr March Maikel Franco goes $23 to Razzball

Heyward $29 to Carty

deGrom $25 to Walton – same price as LABR

Syndergaard $24 to Hertz – also same price in LABR

Puig $27 to Tristan. I guess cat had Lenny’s tongue

Pence $21 to Wilderman

Grichuck went $19 to Gardner as Walton dropped out at $18.

Piscotty goes $1 cheaper than Grichuck to Tristan

Solar does not eclipse a $13 price and ends up with Guilfoyle

Soler…dammit, screwed up the joke

Joey Votto and his tight pants goes $39 to Zola

Marte $35 to Melnick — never a doubt

Schebler $10

to Grey

Bour $17 to Lenny

Freeman $29 to Guilfoyle

Blackmon $31 to Guilfoyle. Topped Gianella’s $30

Defending champ still hasn’t purchased a player but he’s been active in a lot of the latest bids. Let Billy Hamilton go $22 to Carty and dropped out at $20

Jayson is Werth $12 to Walton

A-Gon $25 to Behrens

MadBum $28 to Behrens ; was $29 in LABR

$9 for Nola as Gianella finally gets on board

Villar goes $16 to Wilderman — if he were still in the AL, he goes for much less than that. That is what increased playing time can do for a guy’s value!

Lucas Duda $23 to Hertz

Braun $28 to Lenny — another stone cold lock

Melancon $17 to Gianella

btw, if you’d like to watch the Periscope live video of the auction, it’s here – https://www.periscope.tv/w/…

Melancon’s price matched LABR and Rondon goes $16 to Wilderman which is $4 over his LABR price

Joc Pederson $19 to Carty

Familia goes $17 to Gianell — he was $15 in LABR. Mike now has rostered 2 closers at $17 in a league where there are a LOT of question marks at closer

Brandon Belt $23 to Lenny. Someone find his 2015 roster and I bet it lines up rather well so far as I’m having a lot of deja vu right now

Chris Carter $15 to Razzball.

David Wright goes $13 to Hertz (homer)

Lester goes $22 to Zola – he was $18 in LABR

Papelbon goes $15 to Gardner. Closers so far: Jansen $19, Rondon $16, Rosenthal $17, Familia $17, Melancon $17

Polanco $26 to Melnick. He’ll get to that $125 outfield

Brandon Crawford $16 to Gardner

Aye Jay Raymos goes $13 to Razzball. He’s better than Bee-lock-Ay Snell.

Cheapest closer price thus far

Arrieta $28 to Tristan

Arrieta was same price at LABR

strike that, he was $29 at LABR

Cole $24 to Melnick

Rendon $23 to Tristan

Jose Fernandez $24 to Lenny – $1 cheaper than LABR

Story $7 to I believe Guilfoyle

David Peralta $20 to Tristan

Kemp $26 to Hertz

Waino is bueno for $18 to Gianella – same price as LABR

Jimmy Nelson $7 to Wilderman – $1 more than LABR

the RH Buehrle, Mike Leake, $9 to Walton

Lucroy goes $17 to Gianella

Rico Suave Gerardo Parra goes $18 to Lenny. That’s $106 on his 4 OFers

Cueto $20 to Wilderman. Was $19 in LABR

Greinke ends up at $26 to Lenny. Was a dollar cheaper in LABR

Yelich $23 to Walton. Maybe one of these years, he’ll get that GB% under 50%

$19 for Wong Cockcraft

Matz $12 to Gianella. $73 on 5 pitchers

Matz was $1 more in LABR. Tyson Ross goes $19 to Walton who was $18 in LABR. Gianella went to $18 on Ross, so the plan is clear for him

Josh Harrison $16 to Hertz

Realmuto goes $13 to Hertz

A.J. Ellis $2 to Gardner

CarGo $28 to Guilfoyle. Gianella dropped at $27

Cespedes goes $27 to Guilfoyle as he once again tops Gianella. 3 times, Ray has one-upped Mike on outfielders

Granderson $21 to Zola

Zobrist $20 to Behrens

Wacha Wacha Wacha $13 to Gardner. Was $14 in LABR

Mark Reynolds $5 to Carty. Nice cheap pop buy

the best changeup in the NL, Liriano, goes $15 to Gardner. Same LABR price

Brandon Phillips $13 to Gianella. Not on board with that because last year’s speed spike doesn’t look sustainable

Holliday $19 to Razzball

Shields $14 to Wilderman in an active bid. Was $9 in LABR

d’Arnaud $17 to Hertz as he creeps toward dollar days

(sub required) — my 18 predictions for the NL – http://www.rotowire.com/bas…

DeSclifani $10 to Tristan

Shelby Miller $11 to Gianella ; was a $9 LABR pitcher. That’s $84 on his pitchers. Carlos Martinez $15 to Zola. Was $11 in LABR

Teheran $12 to Walton. Was $10 in LABR. Pitchers are starting to inflate

Mesoraco $13 to Razzball. Time for a break – coming back at 11:45

$11 for Corbin to Razzball. Was $14 in LABR

one of my NL predictions:

Sergio Romo once again saves 20-plus games. Romo had the closer role in 2013 and 2014 but lost it to Santiago Casilla and didn’t get it back in 2015. That should change in 2015 as Romo bounced back last season to show excellent skills in the pen — even better than what the kid Hunter Strickland did.

PLAYER TBF K-BB% K% BB% FB% HR/FB% Z-CONTACT% SwStr% F-STRIKE%
Santiago Casilla 244 16 25 9 30 13 89 10 57
Sergio Romo 230 27 31 4 32 7 76 17 70
Hunter Strickland 191 21 26 5 40 8 78 14 65

Casilla only needs to slip up for Bruce Bochy to go back to his known-known in the bullpen and let the skills roar.

Fowler $19 to Carty

J.P. Crawford $4 to Walton

another NL prediction from me:

Wei-Yin Chen is a top-20 starting pitcher in the NL by season’s end. He is 29th in NL-Only leagues by ADP and is going just a few spots behind Kenta Maeda, who has never thrown a major league pitch. What I like about Chen is that he’s moving from a park that inflated home runs by 12 percent to one that has suppressed them by 27 percent. Yes, the Marlins are moving in the fences a little bit, but this is still a tremendous improvement in home park for Chen. Additionally, Chen will get to pitch against the rebuilding Braves and Phillies with the unbalanced schedule. The long ball has always been a problem for him as his HR/9 was at least 1.1 in each of the four seasons in Baltimore, his ERA never below 3.34. That should change in 2016 with the change in parks, and he’ll get the bump in strikeouts going to the National League as well.

Ryan Zimmerman $14 to Hertz (homer since he lives in DC)

Derek Norris $12 to Gianella $29 on catchers for Mike & $34 for closers

Matt Duffy $15 to Gianella

BEEEEEEF….Wellington Castillo $12 to Guilfoyle

here’s another bold NL prediction from me:

Yoenis Cespedes hits the fewest homers of the regular Mets outfielders. Last season, he was playing for a new contract and posted career highs in HR/FB ratio as well as hard contact. Much like Arrieta, Cespedes performed at an incredible rate in the second half, slugging 95 points higher at .594 compared to the .499 rate in the first half. He hit 22 second-half home runs as 25 percent of his flyballs became homers whereas 13 percent did so in the first half of the season. He should still get to 20, but so will Michael Comforto and Curtis Granderson. All three should hit between 20-25 homers, but Cespedes will bring up the rear.

Lucas Giolito $6 to Walton. If he can come up early, he could double that

Wil Myers goes $16 to Carty That’s $16 too much. I hate Myers more than bunting

Grandal $15 to Gianella as he buys his 3rd catcher???!!!!

Ben Revere goes $21 to Guilfoyle

Inciarte $18 to Walton. My prediction on Inciarte:

Ender Inciarte earns more than any Braves batter in 2016. Inciarte hit .319/.358/.443 in the second half of 2015 while doubling his walk rate, reducing his strikeout rate and swiping 12 bases. We have him projected for 83 runs, 25 steals and a .288 average. Everyone else will be chasing Freddie Freeman as his hot spring is pushing his ADP, which has jumped nearly 20 points in the last week. Meanwhile, Inciarte has yet to crack the top 50 for outfielders and is going after extreme risks such as Jay Bruce and Mark Trumbo. Inciarte is one of 13 players we project to score at least 80 runs and steal at least 25 bases, and he has the lowest ADP of the 11 outfielders of that group:

• Mookie Betts: 18
• Charlie Blackmon: 35
• Billy Burns: 147
• Byron Buxton: 174
• Lorenzo Cain: 51
• Carlos Gomez: 51
• Greg Polanco: 90
• A.J. Pollock: 16
• George Springer: 24
• Delino DeShields Jr.: 177
• Ender Inciarte: 190

Melvin Upton goes to Lenny for $8 as the new Cameron Maybin

Kazmir $6 to Carty. Hopefully the velo comes back soon

Jaime Garcia, $11 to Behrens. Compare that to a $6 Kazmir & that’s recent injury concerns vs a 15-page medical history is

Paulsen $13 to Gianella

Brandon Moss $12 to Walton. My Moss prediction:

Brandon Moss leads the Cardinals in home runs. His home run numbers have been down three consecutive seasons, but let’s compare his 2013 season and his 2015 season in a few areas.

YEAR PA HR FB% HR/FB HARD% AVG DISTANCE
2013 505 30 52 19 40 295
2015 526 19 47 13 39 285

The hard contact was there, but the ball didn’t travel as far and he didn’t hit as many flyballs as when he hit 30 homers two seasons ago. Moss was also coming off hip surgery and did not look right at the plate until late in the season when he hit .262/.359/.429 over the final two months. Moss is the 79th outfielder by ADP and one of the few down there with power upside if he’s fully recovered from the hip injury.

Todd gets Neil Walker $19

Yadi $8 to Behrens

Nick Hundley $12 to Razzball. Catcher prices going back up

Lackey $11 to Zola