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Friday’s #toutdaily. Who are the touts picking for tonight’s contest?

We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter tonight’s Tout Daily Week 7 contest. You can follow the results here tonight. For more about Tout Daily visit here.

Todd Zola says:

Pitcher: Gerrit Cole ($9,400–New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates) – Love Scherzer today but the Phils don’t strike out that much so in a tourney, I’ll save the bucks and take a guy at home, in an extreme pitcher’s park facing a team that fans at an above average rate.

Hitter: Anthony Rizzo ($4,400–Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks) – Batting 3rd on the road should give Rizzo five cracks in a park that boosts lefty power by 16 percent with at least a couple chances against Josh Collmenter who’s surrendered six homers over his last three starts.

Scott Swanay’s suggestions:

Pitcher: Max Scherzer ($11,700–Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals).  It’s tempting to go with a cheaper alternative, such as Noah Syndergaard at $7,700, but in this case the opposing pitcher was the tiebreaker for me (Scherzer vs. Sean O’Sullivan; Syndergaard vs. Gerrit Cole).  In a tournament-style game like this, where only the top 25% or so finishers win money, it’s imperative to have your pitcher get a Win.  Other alternatives considered were Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,200) @ Mia, Rick Porcello ($7,900) vs. LAA, and Alex Wood ($7,700) vs. Mil.  In all cases I was looking for opponents w/ low team batting averages who don’t score many runs or hit many home runs.

Hitter: Nolan Arenado ($3,900–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies).  He has 7 homers in 137 at-bats, he’s playing at home at Coors Field, and he’s facing an opposing pitcher (Ryan Vogelsong) who’s given up 9 home runs in just 39 innings.  I’m in.

Rotoman’s Picks:

Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,200–Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins) Scherzer is tempting, but the price difference makes Jimenez irresistible. Riskier, too, but a full Anthony Rizzo cheaper despite pitching in a good ball park against a weak hitting team featuring a pitcher who is still working out the kinks.

Hitter: Mike Trout ($5,200–Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox) The wind is blowing out in Boston, and Rick Porcello doesn’t have the stuff to contain Trout.

Jeff Erickson’s Picks:

Pitcher:Gerrit Cole ($9,400–New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates) – If you don’t want to pay the price on Max Scherzer (and it may be a good idea to do so, given the home matchup against the Phillies, with Sean O’Sullivan as the opposing pitcher, and with the Phillies coming directly from Coors Field), look at Cole. The Mets have all sorts of troubles against RH starters, and you might get the benefit of Cole being lesser-owned, given how many other good SPs are going Friday, including Cole’s opposite-number Noah Syndergaard.

Batter: Jimmy Paredes ($3,300–Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins) – I’m going back to the well on Paredes. Did you know that only five batters are averaging more fantasy points per game on FanDuel than Paredes (Harper, Goldschmidt, Cruz, Adrian Gonzalez and Rizzo)? At $3,300 against Henderson Alvarez, it’s worth going with him again Friday.

Honorable mention to the San Francisco Brandon’s, who get Kyle Kendrick in Coors Field. Only the weather worries me.

Doug Anderson’s Recommendations:

Pitcher: Max Scherzer ($11,700–Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals)- I hate using up so much salary on one player, but this is about as good a matchup as you could imagine. He pitches at home against baseball’s worst offense and is opposed by a mediocre minor league pitcher. I’ll see what kind of lineup I can put around him, but Scherzer is in line for a great day. Sometimes the obvious answer is the right answer.

Hitter: Brandon Belt ($3,900–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies and Kyle Kendrick (RHP) – Belt has not gotten the power going, but everything else is pointing up. Belt is hitting .358 in May and .347 with all of his homers against right-handed hitters. Add in Kyle Kendrick and Coors Field and you have the makings of a big day.

Jeff Boggis’s Picks (for Fantasy Baseball Empire)

Pitcher: Max Scherzer ($11,700–Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals) I’m always trying to come up with optimal lineups through various daily strategies. Over the previous weeks, the days when I finished in the money was when I had my pitcher have an outstanding outing, regardless of the points generated from my hitters. So I don’t want to skimp today on starting pitching, regardless of salary. For my team, I’m going with Scherzer tonight at $11,700 against Philadelphia. I like to use 2 weeks of pitching stats to analyze pitchers and to avoid a 7 day analysis due to 2 starts for some pitchers. Over the past 2 weeks, Scherzer has 14 innings pitched, 2 wins, 17 strikeouts, an ERA of 0.64 and a WHIP of 0.86. He is at home tonight and faces a Phillies team that ranks last in slugging percentage (.355) and home runs (24) on the season. Scherzer has averaged 17.5 fantasy points over his past 4 starts and has 2 outings this season with 20+ fantasy points. If you want to save a few dollars, I’d also recommend Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer at $9,100. He faces the Oakland A’s at home, but has a tough matchup as he faces Oakland’s Scott Kazmir. Archer has not been able to put it all together for a single outing for fantasy owners this season. He’s pitched well in his last 2 starts, but his run support and strikeouts have been inconsistent. I’d like to see Archer go at least 7 innings tonight as he has pitched 7 innings in 4 out of his 9 outings this season.

Hitter: Hunter Pence ($3,300–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies). When a quality hitter can be rostered at a bargain price, I have to add this team to my starting lineup. Hunter Pence is being priced as he returns from the DL.  I am getting a quality hitter at a DL price. Pence has multiple hit games in 3 of the 5 games since his return from the DL. He has a favorable matchup tonight against Kyle Kendrick and is playing tonight in the hitter’s park of Colorado.

David Gonos:

Hitter: Danny Espinosa ($2,900–Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins) Thirteen second basemen are priced higher than Espinosa tonight, and the switch-hitter’s power comes against RHP. He faces Philly’s RHP Sean O’Sullivan (9.64 ERA vs. LH hitters, with 3 HRA in just 4.2 IP).

From the Godfather of Fantasy Sports, Charlie Wiegert

Pitcher: Zack Greinke ($9,900–San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers).  It’s all about the strike outs and innings pitched, and when Greinke pitches against San Diego, there is a good chance you’ll get lots of both, and perhaps a win.  Zack is 5-0 with a 1.58 ERA in 9 starts against the Padres, and only given up 1 run is 13 innings against them this year.  And in that San Diego has the 4th most strike outs in MLB, it makes it worth the price to make him a good play tonight.

Hitter: Nolan Arenado ($3,900–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies).  This game should be a slug fest with Vogelsong or Kendrick having a combined ERA over 12.  Nolan has two dingers vs Vogelsong and comes in with a day of rest yesterday.  He’s been in a rut lately with only 1 hit in his last 15 AB’s, which has caused his salary to drop.  Vogelsong should be just what he needs to break out of the mini-slump!

Brian Walton Touts Hitting:

Hitters: Brandon Belt ($3,900–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies) and Charlie Blackmon ($3,800–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies) For Friday night offense, Coors is the place to be, especially with Kyle Kendrick opposing Ryan Vogelsong. On the Giants’ side, I will go with a player I own in NL Tout Wars, first baseman Brandon Belt, at $3900. Kendrick has been bad everywhere this season, but worse at home and worse against left-handed hitters. Enter Belt, who has a 1.018 OPS in 24 career games at Coors.

In an equal-opportunity view, I am backing Charlie Blackmon against Vogelsong. This season, the Giants’ starter’s splits between left- and right-handed hitters (1.143 vs. .649 OPS) are about as extreme as one could have. The lefty-swinging Blackmon has performed well against right-handed pitchers in 2015 (.317/.375/.505/.880).

Steve Moyer’s Inside Edge:

Pitcher:

Carlos Carrasco ($8,700–Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians) Only Scherzer and Felix rate a higher IE matchup score and Carrasco is way cheaper.
Hitter: Justin Maxwell ($3,000–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies)  Gotta make sure he’s in the lineup and it doesn’t rain, but he’s a top Inside Edge matchup score at a bargain-basement price.

Lenny Melnick’s Picks:

Pitcher: Gerrit Cole ($9,400–New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates) My Pitcher tonite.  Ks and wins are the name of the game at Fanduel  Mets can be beaten away from Home and with erratic bats, the Ks will come as well. No need to spend the extra bucks on bigger names.

Hitter: Hunter Pence ($3,300–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies) Has made a nice return from injury and will light it up at Coors. Good Value.

Paul Sporer’s Selections:

Pitcher: Gerrit Cole ($9,400–New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates) Cole’s making his ace transformation before our eyes. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a single outing, he’s fanned 6+ in seven of eight starts, and the NYM offense has regressed from their early “decent” start w/a .615 OPS v. righties this month (second-worst in MLB).

Hitter: Bryce Harper ($6,000–Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals) Versus Scott O’Sullivan: Lefties have owned SOS forever and Harper is owning everyone right now. It’s a bit of an easy pick, but easy doesn’t make it wrong! 

The Pickboard

Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)

Gerrit Cole ($9,400–New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates) 7 (22.33)
Max Scherzer ($11,700–Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals) 6 (17)
Zack Greinke ($9,900–San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers) 3 (11.66)
Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,200–Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins) 2 (5)
Carlos Carrasco ($8,700–Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians) 1 (15)

Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes

Brandon Belt ($3,900–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies and Kyle Kendrick (RHP) 3 (10.5)
Nolan Arenado ($3,900–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies) 2 (-1)
Hunter Pence ($3,300–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies) 2 (4.25)
Nick Hundley ($3,000–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies) 1 (2.25)
Carlos Gonzalez ($3,300–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies) 1 (2.25)
Charlie Blackmon ($3,800–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies) 1 (2.25)
Justin Maxwell ($3,000–San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies) 1 (dnp)
Anthony Rizzo ($4,400–Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks) 1 (.75)
A.J. Pollock ($4,000–Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks) 1 (10.5)
Bryce Harper ($6,000–Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals) 1 (6.75)
Ryan Zimmerman ($3,300–Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals) 1 (.5)
Mike Trout ($5,200–Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox) 1 (6.25)
Jimmy Paredes ($3,300–Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins) 1 (3.5)
Danny Espinosa ($2,900–Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins) 1 (-.75)
Kyle Seager ($2.900–Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays) 2 (2.5)
Evan Longoria ($3,200–Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays) 1 (11.75)

The Only Problem With Colorado Tonight

Screenshot 2015-05-22 13.48.05

Gene McCaffrey (Tout NL): LET’S TALK ABOUT ME!

I can’t believe how big the whole thing is now. Back in the day we would huddle in the dank basement of some New York bar. One year we drafted in Steve Moyer’s basement, which I thought was great but later heard tell of other putative Warriors who did not. Now there are at least a hundred people there either drafting or media-involved. Even girls! Maybe three! TV cameras, live radio broadcasts, no question we’re big shots.

Gene McCaffrey, with Steve Gardner, Todd Zola and Lenny Melnick.
Gene McCaffrey, with Steve Gardner, Todd Zola and Lenny Melnick.

The best thing is that the people are terrific. The very few assholes who have passed through the expert ranks of fantasy baseball over the years all disappeared quickly. I mean, I’m the biggest asshole there and I’m only an asshole sometimes. But you want to know about my team.

I won the battle but I may have lost the war. Here’s The Conundrum: in NL- or AL-only leagues the bargains are going to come on the pitchers, but you can’t get too many or you won’t have enough money to buy an offense. Everyone is spending 30 percent or less on pitching and bragging about it, which ABSOLUTELY guarantees that 1) pitchers will be undervalued, and 2) hitters will be overvalued. (A corollary is that some team or teams who don’t spend on pitching are going to score some pitching bargains, making them instant contenders.) When it works it looks great, when it doesn’t—which is usually since everyone is doing it—it looks terrible, but no one cares because odds are that’s what the winner did. To me this state of affairs calls for a contrary strategy and hence the conundrum. Continue reading “Gene McCaffrey (Tout NL): LET’S TALK ABOUT ME!”

Tout NL Three-Time Presiding Champ Tristan Cockcroft Tells All!

2012cockcroft-nl2013ToutWarsNLChamps2014ToutWarsNLChampsWinner of Tout Wars NL in 2012, 2013 and 2014, plus a two-time LABR champ, Tristan lays it all out for us Tout NLers who have been chasing him, and tells us (and you) how he wins.

Mixed Auction: Zach Steinhorn, Steady As He Goes.

Zach Steinhorn is one of a half dozen owners in contention for the Tout Wars Mixed Auction title.

Standings as of September 2, 2014
Standings as of September 2, 2014

Zach writes:

Although most of my Mastersball column space this season has been devoted to Mixed Auction Tout Wars, I’ve made a conscious effort to avoid patting myself on the back, mostly for superstitious reasons, of course. And I’m not about to pat myself on the back now, not with less than a month remaining in the season and with six teams within 11 points of the lead and a mere four points separating second place from fifth place. I’ve been in that top six for the vast majority of the season, and just to enter September having a legitimate chance to win this league is pretty special. The “second place is first loser” line is nonsense, especially when competing against the best in the business. Would I be bummed if I fall a few points short of first place? Sure. But would I remember 2014 the same way as I remember my first two Tout Wars seasons, in which I finished in 10th and 11th out of 15 teams? Absolutely not.

Anyway, a few weeks ago, I received an e-mail from league mate Fred Zinkie, and when I saw the subject line, “Tout”, I was positive that it was yet another one of his weekly trade proposals. Instead, Fred noted that while scanning my current roster and comparing it to my post-auction roster, he noticed that almost every player I purchased in the auction was still on my roster. I think the figure was 20 out of 23. He went on to say that this kind of roster stability was something he had never seen in a contending team and that he would not offer me any more trades because he was curious to see how things play out should I continue with virtually the same roster.

I knew I was a patient owner, but even I didn’t realize that the numbers were this extreme. So I guess it’s fair to say that my auction performance is the main reason for my success this year. Adding Mark Buehrle for one FAAB dollar in early-April and benefiting from the good part of his season before cutting ties with him at the right time certainly helped. Picking up Henderson Alvarez for $9 in early-June was nice. But nothing can compare to drafting Nelson Cruz for $10. Or Denard Span for $1. Or even Jose Altuve for $16.

I’m going to stop here though, for superstitious reasons.

Rotoman’s FAAB Story: Cue Tiny Violins

On Saturday Brian Walton published his tale of FAAB Woe in Tout NL the week of August 4. I didn’t read it until after I posted the following, but the two stories are of a piece.  

Sometime around the beginning of July my Tout Wars NL team was in second place, about five points behind Seth Trachtman’s team. At least for a few moments. But since then things have gone terribly wrong.

My Stars and Scrubs squad was built on seven $20+ dollar players. Since the beginning of July Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Ryan Zimmerman have gone on the DL, and Andrew McCutchen has been sidelined for more than a week with injury, though he may avoid the DL.

Earlier I lost Joey Votto to injury, in June, but was able to swap him for Jay Bruce. Otherwise things would be worse, though Bruce continues to be a shadow of his former self.

As does Martin Prado, the last of my $20 hitters, who along with Madison Bumgarner (who has been exactly fine) rounds out my tale of woe and fifth place team of injured stars.

With all these injuries, one would think there would be replacements available. And this week in the NL there were.

Jake Lamb is Arizona’s third basemen until he proves otherwise. Hardly a star but maybe a viable regular, he will get at bats for a while, at least.

Rhymer Liriano is being called up to the Padres tomorrow. He’s been a fine minor league hitter who has some pedigree.

Michael Fiers had a great ML season in 2012, bombed last year and has been excellent in Triple A this year. I rostered him early this year, but he was passed by a phenom. Now, with Matt Garza tanked, he has a shot at a few starts. His first one was wonderful. Alas, I let him go in June, so I bid on him.

I also bid on Brad Penny, he’s been pitching well in New Orleans, and Alfredo Marte, who is getting (weak) at bats in Arizona’s outfield.

I had a total of $36 FAAB to spend. The outcome this week?

In Tout Wars we use the Vickery bidding system, which gives the bid to the highest bidder, at $1 more than the second highest bidder. This week’s results are personally painful:

Jake Lamb: Trachtman $36. Next: Rotoman $18. Result: Trachtman $19.

Rhymer Liriano: Walton $50. Next: Trachtman $26, Rotoman $13. Result: Walton $27.

Michael Fiers: Hertz $50. Next: Rotoman $14. Result: Hertz $15.

Alfredo Marte: Trachtman $7. Next: Rotoman $5. Result: Trachtman $6

Brad Penny: Wilderman $8. Next: Rotoman $3. Result: Wilderman $4.

At least I’m enforcing.

Midseason Report Tout Wars Mixed Draft: Tim McLeod

Tim writes:

Miguel Cabrera
Miguel Cabrera
The story in the Mixed Draft League has been all Mastersball.com’s Perry Van Hook, with the rest of the group attempting to stay within striking distance. Perry currently enjoys a 15 point-lead over his second place rival, with a further ten points bacl to the main pack. He’s at or near the top in every offensive category. Led by Miggy Cabrera, Carlos Gomez, and Jose Altuve, with some truly awesome complementary pieces in Khris Davis, Charlie Blackmon, and Michael Brantley. Add in the surging Carlos Santana and it is easy to see why he’s dominating the offensive board.

On the pitching side, Perry lost all-world starter Jose Fernandez early, but his rotation of Anibal Sanchez, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Nathan Eovaldi and two recent $1 free agent additions, Jesse Hahn and Danny Duffy, have allowed him to amass 27-of-30 points in the ERA and WHIP categories. There aren’t a lot of holes in this squad.

Congratulations Perry! We’ve got our work cut out for us in the second half if we’re going to catch Team Mastersball.

McLeod Around the Horn

The closer situation in baseball is about as stable as we’ve seen it since the tumultuous start to the season, and with that stabilization teams have begun to shuffle the deck. The past several weeks have seen numerous trades as teams attempt to shore up their bullpens and make hay in the saves category. There are points to be gained as the closer carousel continues to spin.

For instance, a whopping 40.5 percent of the total FAAB spent year-to-date has been spent chasing saves. We witnessed a mind-boggling 51.3 percent FAAB expenditure chasing saves in the first six weeks of the season. When nearly half of our budget has been spent on one-tenth of the categories in play thought should be given to the rules we use moving into the future of our great game.

Winning is Everything!

Wins are not, says Nick Minnix, in a story at Fangraphs today. He’s talking about pitchers’ wins, of course, a stat that some would say is ridiculously random, while others might say its imperfection accentuates its beauty.

Nick is clearly not sure where he stands along a spectrum that perhaps begins with cumulative Game Score, features PQS and W+Quality Starts and ends up with naked Wins alone. He is properly ruminative about this delicate question, which can provoke some fire. I suggested doing away with the Wins category at ESPN.com nearly 20 years ago and my ears still ring with the dismissive, “The game is all about winning, stupid.”

Some of the commenters about Nick’s story suggest Innings Pitched as a proxy for wins, but I think that’s barking up the wrong category. Innings pitched is a fine substitute for Strikeouts, an ability that often enough has little to do with winning or pitching effectively. A pitcher who puts up the innings is doing some important part of the job, no matter the outcomes.

A pitcher who wins, however, is likely on a decent team AND is getting the job done. He may be Masahiro Tanaka, throwing lots of strikeouts and leading the majors in wins, or he may be Mark Buehrle, who is hardly striking out anyone, and nearly matching Tanaka W for W. Or he could be the antichrist spawn of the two, the master of the unlucky, like Jeff Samardzija, striking them out but crippled by his dismal team, winning but twice thus far in 90+ innings pitched.

Nick throws down a challenge to Tout Wars to wise up and replace the Win category with something, anything, better.

We’ll see. Tout never shys from innovation, but the question here is whether there is a replacement that reflects the vagaries of the game and doesn’t simply mirror the gradations of the qualitative stats, ERA and WHIP. There is something to giving a pitcher extra credit for playing on a good team, or overcoming a bad one.