Mastersball’s crew digests and displays this week’s moves, with nods to Chris Parmelee, Derek Deitrich, Kyle Schwarber, and Matt Wisler.
Mike Gianella has an excellent and informative look at the Tout NL FAAB pool, where the biggest buys came from last year, and who has made the best gains this year, at baseballprospectus.com.
I’ve had a lot of bad days playing DFS, when most of my picks were outliers, guys picked in under 5 percent of the teams.
Tonight, Phil Hertz won Week 3 of Phase 3 of Tout Daily with a roster of just such outliers. Only Steven Vogt, who was on 11 percent of Tout Daily teams was on Phil’s squad and more than two others.
Phil was the only owner of Roenis Ellis, who he plugged in this afternoon’s Tout Picks post at ToutWars.com.
On the hitting side, he soared with Nolan Arenado, Stephen Vogt (who was owned by five teams), Jhonny Peralta, Brett Gardner and Justin Upton. Apart from Vogt, none of his scorers was owned by more than two teams in the Tout Daily contest.
It should be noted that Hertz hurt. The second place team was more than 10 points behind. Second place finisher Jake Ciely managed to do it without a productive pitching performance (from Carlos Carrasco). It seems there are many ways to skin a cat.
The weekly leaders for the ticket to the final on August 28 are: Derek Van Riper, Michael Beller, and Jeff Boggis, but they are trailed by Scott Pianowski, Adam Ronis, Brian Walton and Lenny Melnick, all of whom (apart from Brian Walton) already have tickets to the finals.
Read Hertz’s squad and weep:
We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter tonight’s Tout Daily Week 11 contest. You can follow the results here tonight. For more about Tout Daily visit here.
Tonight’s contest is Week 3 of Phase 3 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.
Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis, Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels and Tom Kessenich have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.
Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.
Chris Sale ($11,000–Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox) He fanned double digits six times in his last seven outings and facing a squad that whiffs at a 23 percent clip against soutpaws. Chalk, vanilla, call it what you will. No reason to get cute.
Kolten Wong ($2,900–St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies) I’ll need some lower priced hitters in good spots and it doesn’t get any better than Wong leading off in Citizens Bank Park against fill-in Phillippe Aumont.
Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) – It’s tempting to go with one of the bigger name options for tonight (Sale, deGrom, Gray, Shields), but I’ll save a few shekels here and put it towards a stronger hitting lineup. Usually, I wouldn’t want a pitcher facing the same team for consecutive starts, but with the Mariners’ offense as anemic and strikeout-prone as it is, I feel it’s worth a shot.
Josh Reddick ($3,400–Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics) – I like his match-up vs. Matt Shoemaker, and it’s rare to find someone with a favorable match-up who also has both the handedness and home/away splits in his favor. Chris Coghlan and Billy Burns were the only other two hitters who I felt met all three criteria tonight, but I’ll go with the guy who has the best chance of knocking one out of the park.
Jacob DeGrom ($10,800–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) The Mets are on a two-game losing streak and Jacob deGrom is pitching like a real ace right now, a guy who steps in and gets the team back on track when they need it. He’s been rolling and the Mets have owned the Braves so far this year. He’ll get the W in very effective fashion.
Gerardo Parra ($2,500–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) Gerardo Parra is a nice value at $2,500 to give you exposure to the Brewers lineup at Coors Field. He will also allow you to frontload your lineup elsewhere.
Rubby de la Rosa ($7,000–San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks) stopped the bleeding in his last start, firing a gem at SF after three straight shaky outings. Facing the RH-heavy Padres tonight at home is a good draw for Rubby. There’s risk here, but the price is right ($7000) if your overall standing in this phase dictates you look at an under-the-radar option.
Carlos Gonzalez ($4000–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) is finally heating up (1.009 OPS in June) after a lousy April/May, and his salary hasn’t fully corrected yet. In a home game against a shaky RHP in Taylor Jungmann, Gonzalez is just as good a play as the $5000+ elite OFs, but comes at a 20% discount.
Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) Chris Sale is extremely enticing, but it’s hard to build a lineup around an $11,000 pitcher. Enter Carrasco. He has one of the larger projected run differentials today, giving him a great chance for the win. On top of that, the Rays are in the bottom third for wOBA and wRC+ against righties and have the seventh highest K% (21.0) against them. Carrasco has 10 starts with six-plus strikeouts and eight in three of his last four starts.
Charlie Blackmon ($3,900–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) After a weak May where Blackmon only hit .220, he’s cruising along with a .288 AVG in June. As we all know, Blackmon also hits righties much better with a .305 AVG against them this year versus .164 for lefties (career split .292/.264). The Rockies have the highest projected run total today, are at home and face Taylor Jungmann, who has been solid through his first two starts but is far from a shut down pitcher.
Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) Carrasco has faced a tough early schedule and has been burned by a .342 BABIP Against. The strikeouts are there (10.34 K/9) and the walks aren’t (2.19 BB/9). His 2.84 xFIP is what you need to look at.
Joey Votto ($4,000–Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds) Joey Votto is Joey Votto. Dan Haren is what puts this matchup over the top. Haren has given up 13 homers this season in 81 innings. He’s got a 4.23 ERA on the road, and a career ERA of 5.59 at Great American Ballpark. That $4,000 salary is not a huge roadblock either.
Jorge De La Rosa ($6,400–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) a bit of a long shot…he’s been pitching good, shut down the Cardinals in his last start at home and got some K’s. Milwaukee has been scuffling and starting a rookie at Coors, so a win should happen!
Ben Paulson ($3,100—Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) Colorado hitters against the rookie, with Ben Paulson popping a long ball. Also keying on some Card lefties at Philly, and Blue Jay’s against the O’s.
Chris Sale($11,000–Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox) Over his last 7 starts, Sale has averaged 7.5 innings pitched, 11.3 strikeouts, 1.3 earned runs, and 19.9 fantasy points. Chris Sale is the most expensive pitcher on Friday, but let’s analyze his cost per fantasy point compared to the other top starting pitchers over their past 7 starts: Chris Sale (19.9 FP/$11,000/$552 per fantasy point), Jacob deGrom (16.0 FP/$10,800/$673 per fantasy point), Sonny Gray (14.1 FP/$10,100/$717 per fantasy point), James Shields (13.0 FP/$9,500/$728 per fantasy point), A.J. Burnett (14.2 FP/$9,200/$646 per fantasy point). On a dollars per fantasy point basis, Chris Sale is your best starting pitching investment. I also like that Sale is facing Colby Lewis, who owns an ERA of 4.37 on the season. By rostering Chris Sale, that leaves me with an average of $3,000 for my remaining 8 hitters.
Miguel Cabrera ($5,400–Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees) I really wanted to go with Giancarlo Stanton ($5,200), who leads all hitters this season in home runs with 25, RBIs with 63, faces starting pitcher Mike Leake, who has surrendered 13 home runs on the season. But there is an 80% chance of rain on Friday in Cincinnati and I can’t risk a top salaried batter not playing in my lineup due to weather issues. I also like Bryce Harper ($5,400), but he may be potentially out with a with a mild left hamstring strain that he suffered on Thursday. So I am going with Miguel Cabrera who is tied for 2nd overall this season, averaging 3.7 fantasy points per game. He has a good pitching matchup at New York against Adam Warren who has a 3.78 ERA and has surrendered 8 home runs on the season.
Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) Inside Edge rates him behind only Sale and deGrom tonight and you’ll need more than $4K more to buy either of those two.
Giancarlo Stanton ($5200–Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds) Cheap sleepers are lacking on the Inside Edge board tonight, so I’ll give you an expensive guy who scores a perfect 100 on the Matchup Rating. The fact that he’s facing righty Mike Leake tonight might camouflage him as a must-play.
Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) has never pitched in Seattle. In fact, the right-hander is making just his seventh career MLB start Friday night. But when the rookie has pitched, he has been sharp, with an even 2.00 ERA and better than a strikeout per inning. The 21-year-old did toss five scoreless frames against Seattle at home last time out and the Mariners’ offense has been anything but sharp this season. That makes this a decent matchup for anyone looking to save on pitching.
Carlos Beltran ($2,300–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) I watched the late-career version of Carlos Beltran closely for two years at St. Louis. While his streaky stretches are fewer and farther between than in his heyday, the 38-year-old is still capable of doing damage. Beltran is 4-for-10 with a double and a home run in his last three games and is a nice buy at $2300.
Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) The biggest factor with prospects Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela coming up isn’t their fantasy impact with the bat, it’s their glove work that will help the starting rotation. Carrasco might be taking the biggest brunt of the infield defensive deficiencies this year with a .342 BABIP so far. His skills are still saying that last year’s 2.55 ERA was legitimate and so this year’s 4.38 is way out of line. Tonight is first start with Lindor behind him.
Kolten Wong ($2,900–St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies) Wong has been an All-Star caliber 2B against right-handers with a .297/.356/.486 line with six homers in 194 PA. The opposing starting pitcher, Phillippe Aumont, has allowed a 1.144 OPS to lefties in 66 career PA at the major league level. He had a 206-point split favoring lefties (.760 OPS) in 65 IP in Triple-A this year.
Jorge De La Rosa ($6,400–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) may be pitching way above his head at the moment, but that would be the beauty of this Daily League play, right? I love that he is pitching at home against the Brewers, who are 27th in runs scored while on the road, and dead last in walks.
Manny Machado ($3,800–Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays) is hitting like crazy lately, with four home runs and eight RBI in the past seven days. He goes to the hitter friendly Rogers Center to face Marco Estrada, who he homered against just last month. (May 11)
Pitcher (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Chris Sale ($11,000–Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox) 3 (22)
Lance McCullers ($6,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) 3 (7.33)
Jacob DeGrom ($10,800–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) 2 (8.33)
Rubby de la Rosa ($7,000–San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks) (16)
Jorge De La Rosa ($6,400–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (3)
Carlos Carrasco ($8,800–Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians) 3 (8.66)
Roenis Elias ($7,700–Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners) (19)
Hitter (Cost–Game) Votes (FanDuel Points)
Kolten Wong ($2,900–St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies) 2 (6)
Josh Reddick ($3,400–Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics) (-1.25)
Gerardo Parra ($2,500–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (3.25)
Carlos Gonzalez ($4000–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (-1)
Charlie Blackmon ($3,900–Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (8.5)
Chris Davis ($3,400–Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays) (1)
Joey Votto ($4,000–Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds) (2.5)
Manny Machado ($3,800–Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays) 3 (6.5)
Ben Paulson ($3,100—Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies) (7.75)
Miguel Cabrera ($5,400–Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees) (1.5)
Stephen Vogt ($3,300–Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics) (11.5)
Carlos Beltran ($2,300–New York Mets at Atlanta Braves) (.25)
ToutDaily has introduced many of the Tout Warriors to DFS whole providing all of us a chance to match wits with each other. As a means to share some of our thoughts about DFS, its strategies and its place in the industry, each week we’ll be answering a question, to be posted here every Thursday evening. This week’s question posed to the Touts is:
What has surprised you the most since you’ve started participating in the Friday FanDuel Tout Daily contest?
Scott Swanay, www.fantasybaseballsherpa.com, @Fantasy_Sherpa
It’s relatively easy to find a pitcher with a favorable match-up and a good chance of earning a Win, but seemingly much harder (judging by volatility in week-to-week results) to find hitters who will do well (even within the relatively small subset of Hitters who appear to have extremely favorable match-ups).
Patrick Davitt, www.baseballhq.com, @patrickdavitt
Speaking as someone who had Felix Hernandez for his one-out, eight-run performance at Houston, I’d have to say how much depends on the seemingly random unpredictability of the pitching.
Phil Hertz, www.baseballhq.com, @prhz50
At first glance, my reaction was, “Oh, I can do this.” However, after over a half-dozen entries, I’ve only had one really good one — and I’m now spending more and more time checking match-ups, weather, and other things I ignored at first.he seemingly random unpredictability of the pitching.
Tim McCullough, www.rotoexperts.com, @Tim_RotoExperts
Prior to joining the Tout Daily contest, I really didn’t play daily fantasy baseball. I’m surprised at how little I enjoy the daily game. Fantasy baseball has never been about winning money for me. The draft preparation, executing an effective draft, in-season waiver and roster management, and making trades throughout the season is what I really enjoy. I’d much rather build a team that wins after six months of strategy and tweaking than build a team with the expectation of one good night of production.
Craig Mish, www.craigmish.com, @craigmish
Two things have surprised me the most. First, that so many of us have fluctuated from bottom to top so frequently. Second, I find myself spending more time refreshing and checking the standings than actual time I spend setting my lineup. Is that bad? Is there a 12 step Tout Daily rehab program when this is over? Please advise.
Brian Walton, www.mastersball.com @B_Walton
What has surprised me the most is the wide swing in weekly scores. Though it is obvious that in each contest, everyone is starting over, there is clearly no halo effect. Despite following the same basic process in roster setting, my results have varied dramatically by week. For example, on May 22, I hit my low-water point, finishing 33rd of 42. The next week, I came in first. I wish I could point to some specific change I made to improve, but I have no explanation.
Peter Kreutzer, www.askrotoman.com, @kroyte
I knew one thing going in: I knew nothing about playing Daily Fantasy Baseball. But I wasn’t worried, because I also knew the game was subject to a huge variance. As someone who has projected baseball performance for more than 20 years professionally, published ROS updates weekly in the early aughts on MLB.com, and has been around a statistical paradox or two, I thought I would occasionally win simply because I got lucky. In Tout Daily, however, not yet. The sample is still small, just 10 weeks, but as I learn more about the game and fail even worse, I’m thinking it isn’t DFS, it’s me.
Gene McCaffrey, www.wiseguys.com, @gene2323
Nothing has surprised me. The competition figured to be tough and it is. I consistently make good picks and a few other people make them and one more. The touts are better players than the public, which I know because several of my identical teams have cashed in tournaments but not in the Tout Challenge. This contest consistently makes better picks, the top players that night are almost always more widely owned, sometimes a lot more. This is especially noteworthy on Fridays when all teams are playing, which adds choices and don’t forget randomness.
Lenny Melnick, www.rotoexperts.com, @LennyMelnick
The format of carrying over each week’s points to determine a monthly winner has really been a unique innovation to DFS
Competing for 1 day may be fine, but having standings, automatically creates a new level of competition and excitement
Good work TOUT people!
Lawr Michaels, www.mastersball.com, @lawrmichaels
I have mostly found it sort grounding in DFS that it remains as mysterious and fickle as its on-field counterpart.
No sure things (King Felix goes .3 and is tagged for 8? Jace Peterson bags 15 points to Stanton’s 0 thanks to a walk?
It just reminds me there is indeed some theoretical comfort in a body of stats, but in a microcosm the numbers mean very little as often as not.
Michael Beller, www.SI.com, @MBeller
I’m not surprised by it any longer, but early on I was intrigued to see that my lineups built around a star pitcher generally performed better than those that invested heavily in hitting. It might be counterintuitive to full-season fantasy games, but it makes sense in a daily format. Every pitcher in the league is going to have his share of bad outings, and, of course, they’re more susceptible to injury, but it’s a whole lot easier to predict pitcher performance when you know the hurler in question is healthy and has a beneficial matchup. Hitters with even the best matchups are going to fall flat from time to time. Just earlier this week Kris Bryant didn’t get a meaningful hit in the Cubs’ 17-0 drubbing of the Indians until outfielder David Murphy was on the mound. Since about the middle of April, I’ve put my trust in pitching, and it has generally worked out for the better.
Jeff Boggis, www.FantasyFootballEmpire.com, @JeffBoggis
For me, it has been the extra level of analysis and strategy involved in daily fantasy games. It’s not simply selecting names to fit the salary cap. Every roster move counts as we are not only competing each Friday night, but also for finishing in the top 3 overall in the 4 week competition for a ticket into the finals. I’ve had the opportunity to try different strategies such as studs and duds, or going all in on either starting pitching or hitters. Some strategies work better for me than others. I also do a deeper analysis on weather, hitter versus pitcher stats, and hitters that have been hot over the last 7 days. Last but not least, I set my initial team, but always follow up at least 30 minutes before the contest closes to ensure that my players are actually in the starting lineup, especially for players with lower salaries that may not be starting that day.
Charlie Wiegert, www.CDMSports.com, @GFFantasySports
Experts, there are no experts in DFS. Yes some seem to do better than others, but on any given day anyone can win, and anyone can have an awful day. There does not seem to be any secret sauce (As Ron Shandler stated), which makes the game really interesting. Picking the right pitcher, one who will get at least 15 points, is imperative. I do not think we have had a daily winner who has not had a pitcher earn at least 15 points. Keep trying should be the advice. There’s really no reason that today won’t be the day you win!
Scott Engel, www.rotoexperts.com, @scotteRotoEx
Nothing has really surprised me. What has been special to watch, though, is how well Lenny Melnick has done at times. A legendary seasonal player and analyst is paving the path for hardcore seasonal players to embrace DFS rather than shun it.
Jake Ciely, www.rotoexperts.com, @allinkid
It’s going to sound conceited, but let me explain. Not much has surprised me, but it has surprised me how much everyone tends to lean on high-priced pitching. I’ve been doing a study cataloging similar lineups using the top tier of expensive pitchers versus the second and third tier guys. I use the savings to invest in better bats, and it’s performing significantly better. I’ve seen about an 11-12 percent boost on average by avoiding the extremely expensive pitchers, which can make the difference between in cashing out on FanDuel. I assumed that many of the Touts would have a similar theory, even though many are just getting into the daily game. I think the allure of “safety” at pitcher is more perception than reality, and I expect more Touts, and DFS players in general, to start moving away from the extremely expensive pitchers to build better performing lineups.
Todd Zola, www.mastersball.com, @ToddZola
I know this sounds a bit self-centered, but I’m surprised at how poorly my performance has been in ToutDaily, at least relative to my results outside of the FanDuel contest. Wise Guy Gene correctly pointed out we have some very sharp players here but I also wonder if I’m overthinking things, trying to get too cute with my lineup since it’s a hybrid format between trying to win the week and qualifying for one of the 15 spots in the Tout Daily finals.
Tuesday was one of the highest scoring nights of the season as kramerb led the pack with an impressive 79.75 points. The cutoff to cash was a rather high 41 points.
Jake Ciely was the only Tout to finish in the top-ten, checking in at fifth. Eleven Touts cashed:
Jake Ciely
Ray Murphy
Scott Swanay
Eno Sarris
Al Melchior
Gene McCaffrey
Lenny Melnick
Steve Gardner
Michael Beller
Jeff Boggis
Charlie Wiegert
Trevor Bauer (15% ownership) was on three of the top five finishers including leader kramerb. Top Tout Jake Ciely used Garrett Richards (23%) with Chris Tillman (7%) being the other pitcher used in the top five.
With so many MLB teams scoring so many runs, it was going to take a stack or two to come out on top and kramerb nailed it with some exposure to both the Pirates and Orioles then filled in the blanks with Albert Pujols. Jake focused on the same teams except he didn’t use Manny Machado or Francisco Cervilli, two keys to kramerb’s top scoring unit, shown below:
Steve Moyer was the top Tout in last week’s #ToutChallenge on FanDuel. Nine other Touts finished in the money which left plenty of opportunity for you to pad your bankroll.
Are you up for this week’s #ToutChallenge?
For just $2 you can match wits and talk trash with your favorite Tout Warrior. Finish in the top 45 of the 100-player field and you double your money and ooze with pride.
Click HERE to join.
Big bids in each league, but for different players. Read Mastersball.com’s analysis here.
Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Gianella, first place in Tout NL, has his analysis of the week’s Tout AL and NL moves. It’s free!
On a night when many of baseball’s top hurlers took the mound, David Price led Rick Wolf’s Tout Daily at FanDuel squad to victory. On a night of weak scoring, Wolf’s offense was paced by Jose Abreu, Jacob Realmuto and Martin Prado, for a total 48.75 points.
Ron Shandler finished second, behind the arm off Jaime Garcia, and big contributions from Brian Dozier, Josh Reddick and Joey Butler.
Jeff Boggis led the 34 percent of Tout owners who ponied up for Clayton Kershaw, and finished third with big nights from Mike Trout’s and Pablo Sandoval’s bats.
Only two Touts picked David Price, who finished with 21 points on the night. The second, after Wolf, was Lenny Melnick, who finished fourth.
But perhaps the big story of the night were the 21 percent of owners who built their teams around Felix Hernandez, who ignominiously allowed eight runs while getting just one out, scoring -6.67 points. Fortunately for all, the one out was a strikeout. Of the nine teams that took King Felix, Gene McCaffrey and Craig Mish tied for best score, each ending up with 11.58 points.
After two weeks in Phase 3, week one winner Seth Trachtman remains in first despite not finishing in the money this week, with Derek VanRiper, who finished in the money both weeks, just behind him. For the leaderboard, click here.
For more about Tout Daily, click here.
Come play a daily game with the Touts on Tuesday night’s Tout Challenge!
This week’s winner:
