Mastersball.com takes a look at this week’s few transactions here.
Mike Gianella’s look at AL and NL transactions appears on Tuesday each week.
Mastersball.com takes a look at this week’s few transactions here.
Mike Gianella’s look at AL and NL transactions appears on Tuesday each week.
Ray Murphy rostered Lance Lynn, the week’s most productive pitcher, in this week’s Tout Daily by FanDuel, which proved to be most of the margin of victory.
That’s because on the hitting side, Tom Kessenich and Jeff Boggi$ (the preferred spelling whenever Jeff finishes in the money), the second and third place finishers, similarly to Murphy rostered two of the day’s big sticks, Kyle Seager and Hunter Pence. They fell short, however, by the difference between Lynn and their shared pitcher, Jose Fernandez, who pitched decently but did not beat the Phillies.
Fourth-place finisher Rick Wolf had Lynn on his team. He also had Jose Iglesias’s huge day, but lacked a strong second bat.
With his Phase 4 Week 3 victory, Murphy moves into the lead for the Phase by 10 points, ahead of Charlie Wiegert and Brian Walton. The latter is the only team to finish in the Top 10 all three weeks of Phase 4. The top three teams in the Phase will win tickets to the August 28 finals, when 15 ticket holders will vie for $2,000 in winnings.
Two Top 10 teams for the Phase are already ticket holders. Jeff Boggis and Michael Beller are 11 and 16 points respectively out of the Top 3. Players may win two tickets to the finals.
Phase Four finishes up next Friday, July 24th.
See the whole leaderboard here. Read more about Tout Daily. Visit FanGraphs.
Doubt Wars is the game in which players select their own teams based on Tout Wars auction prices, and see if they can outdraft the pros!
Second half Doubt Wars lets you draft a mixed league team using Tout Wars AL and NL prices. Put together your very own special $260 team and compete against 29 other teams for second-half honors!
To enter send the email address you are registered with to webmaster@toutwars.com. You’ll be assigned a team and can draft your team using the Create Roster button. It costs nothing.
But don’t delay. Teams must be created before the start of games on Monday, July 20th!
We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 15 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.
Tonight’s contest is Week 3 of Phase 4 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ. Going into this Week Charlie Wiegert has a big lead, with Gene McCaffrey, Brian Walton, Seth Trachtman, Ray Murphy and Todd Zola and many others all in the fight.
The leaderboard is here. Only one of the current Phase Top 10 have a ticket to the finals.
Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis (has two!), Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels, Tom Kessenich, Michael Beller and Jeff Boggis have tickets to the finals already.
Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.
Julio Teheran ($8200 vs. Chicago Cubs) Teheran is a disappointment this season because of his 4.56 ERA, but hidden in there is a bout of home dominance. He has a 2.04 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 2.9 K:BB ratio in 53 home IP. He needs to make sure Anthony Rizzo doesn’t beat him. Lefties have been a big issue this year (.859 OPS).
Gerardo Parra ($3,400 vs. Pittsburgh) He’s been a hot DFS pick of late and he should be again today as he is just smashing righties this year with a .313/.345/.498 line. He doesn’t usually do much vs. lefties, but his .829 OPS in 50 PA vs. them this year might even protect us for a PA against a lefty reliever late in the game, but even if he is pulled late or this small sample of good work vs. lefties isn’t skills growth, he’s still worth his price tag.
Julio Teheran ($8200 vs. Chicago Cubs) has been the biggest disappointment of my NL Tout squad in the first half, with just six wins in 18 starts and a 4.56 ERA. However, the Braves starter is showing signs of life, having allowed just three earned runs in 14 July innings. Teheran draws the Cubs at home to start the second half Friday night. I am staying with my man and using my savings on hitting!
Miguel Sano ($2600 at Oakland) Some of the prospect luster wore off the Minnesota third baseman while he sat out last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. In the 11 games since the 22-year-old reached the bigs, however, he has reminded us all of his immense potential. Sano brings a .375 average, two home runs and eight RBI into Oakland to face Sonny Gray.
Jose Fernandez ($10,500 at Philadelphia) My strategy that has worked best for me in this contest is to draft an elite pitcher and then look for hitter values to stay within the salary cap. Kershaw was originally scheduled to pitch tonight, but has traded places with Mike Bolsinger in the Dodgers rotation. I like both Sonny Gray ($9,900) and Jose Fernandez ($10,500) tonight, but from a win probability and higher strikeout ceiling, I am going to spend the extra $600 on Jose Fernandez tonight. If you further analyze the pitcher versus hitter matchup, current Philadelphia Phillies hitters are batting only .162 in their last 37 AB’s against Jose Fernandez. The number is slightly higher for Gray versus Minnesota hitters at .182.
Mike Trout ($5,400 vs. Boston) and Bryce Harper ($5,000 vs. LA Dodgers) Each week I have wanted to play either Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, only to have my player either hit a home run the following night or the player that I did not select hit a home run. Well, I am imposing a brand new hitter strategy tonight and it is my “build a team around Trout and Harper” strategy. This way, I feel I have at least doubled my odds of success tonight and I take the guessing out of the equation. I was going to not roster Harper tonight based on his matchup originally against Clayton Kershaw, but with Mike Bolsinger now starting tonight, Bryce Harper is back in the lineup for tonight! By rostering the law firm of Fernandez, Harper, and Trout, this leaves me with an average salary of $2,350 on my remaining 6 hitters.
Friday night’s contest was dominated by Noah Syndergaard, who scored 24 points for Seth Trachtman and the next five finishers.
Trachtman also got big games out of Neil Walker and Kelly Johnson.
Runner up Charlie Wiegert got big games from DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez and Mark Trumbo.
Gene McCaffrey added Prince Fielder, who was owned by a quarter of teams, and Matt Kemp, to Syndergaard.
Week 3 of Phase 4 will come next Friday. The top 3 finishers in each of the contests five phases will compete for $2,000 in prize money on the night of August 28th.
Trachtman’s winning squad (click to enlarge):
Charlie Wiegert takes a commanding lead over the field after two weeks, though no lead is safe in this game.
Charlie is followed by Gene McCaffrey and Brian Walton at the halfway point.
We asked the Touts to share their picks for best pitcher and best hitter in tonight’s Tout Daily Week 14 contest. For more about Tout Daily visit here.
Tonight’s contest is Week 2 of Phase 4 of the five phase contest. The top three finishers in each phase get a ticket to the big August 28 final, with big money and the chance to be the first Tout Wars Daily champ.
Scott Pianowski, Jeff Erickson, Adam Ronis (has two!), Lenny Melnick, Lawr Michaels, Tom Kessenich, Michael Beller and Jeff Bogis have tickets to the finals already. The leaderboard is here.
Here are this week’s Tout picks. I’ll be updating this as they come in, so check back later if you get a chance.
Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia) My goal is the golden ticket so I’m in conservative mode, want to stay close then decide how risky to be in the final two weeks of this period. Bumgarner is the safest arm on the board to get a base of innings and whiffs.
Derek Norris ($2,400 at Texas) Should injury concerns me but if I was likely to hit leadoff against Wandy Rodriguez in Arlington, I’d tell the Skip everything is fine.
Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia) Yes, he’s the most expensive arm out there, but sometimes the most obvious answer is the best answer. I’m not deterred at all by Philly getting him for 5 back in early-June, either. That was one bad inning and he still went 8 with 11 Ks. He has basically been a carbon copy of last year’s excellence.
Nolan Reimold – ($2200 vs. Washington) Figured I’d give a nice low-dollar bat since you need at least a couple when you spend on MadBum. Health has eluded Reimold throughout his career, but he has regularly shown the ability to handle lefties when he does play. Righties having their best success against Gio since his rookie year, too, with a .777 OPS a 131-point difference than his work v. lefties.
Danny Salazar ($8,700 vs Oakland) The circumstances help — Salazar is pitching at home in a nice park, with the third-coldest weather of the day, and incoming winds, against a team that’s bottom half of the American League against fastballs — but this is more about Salazar’s quality with respect to his price. Here’s a pitcher who has struck out 37 batters against nine walks in his last 35.1 innings. Yeah, he gives up the home run, but the Athletics are fourth-worst in homers over the last thirty days, and only a run better for the season. This is a power pitcher that doesn’t walk many batters, going up against a less powerful team that depends on making contact and taking walks to score runs. That’s a good price for a secret ace.
Rougned Odor ($2,800 vs San Diego) The Rangers’ second baseman has been a different hitter since he came back from the minors, He’s really tightened up his swing rate against righties, which would serve him well against Ian Kennedy. In fact, Odor is part of a mini-stack on my squad, as I try to take advantage of a homer-prone righty with relatively soft stuff coming into the heat of Texas. It’s scheduled to be a whopping 91 degrees in Arlington tonight, five degrees warmer than the second-warmest park, That heat should be worth an extra eight feet of batted ball distance over, say, the game in Cleveland, where it will be 20 degrees cooler. Of course, it looks like the wind is blowing in right now, but that’s still a nice park and a nice matchup for relative values in Odor, Josh Hamilton, and even Leonys Martin (should he start).
Gerrit Cole ($10,600 vs. St. Louis) My heart wants to start Madison Bumgarner tonight, but my head is starting Gerrit Cole. Cole is at a $1,300 discount tonight versus Bumgarner and I have them projected within 2 fantasy points tonight. It all comes down to their opposing pitchers. Bumgarner is facing Cole Hamels, who I believe is on showcase tonight as this could be his last game in a Phillies uniform. Case in point, on Tuesday night, Max Scherzer faced Johnny Cueto, and Cueto is also a potential showcase pitcher. Cueto pitched lights out and it would not surprise me if Hamels outpitches Bumgarner tonight. Cole faces Lance Lynn tonight and Lynn is no slouch at $9,300, but Hamels is a tougher matchup tonight. Don’t be surprised if a lot of top ranked pitchers end up with a no decision tonight. In his last night starts, Cole is 7-1 with 1
Justin Upton ($2,700 @ Texas) This is purely a value pick based on his ability, his matchup, and his salary. Anytime that I can get a player that is being discounted, I take advantage and Upton at $2,700 is a steal tonight. He has a good righty versus lefty matchup against Wandy Rodriguez. Over the past 2 season, Justin Upton has a slugging percentage of .487 against similar pitchers. He did not start in Wednesday’s game and had 2 days of rest from his oblique soreness. Just make sure he is in the starting lineup tonight and all indications is that he will be in the starting roster.
Erasmo Ramirez ($6,700 vs. Houston Astros) – Ramirez has been performing like a near-elite over seven starts now, with a 1.18 ERA and 14 percent whiff rate. The Astros can’t hurt his chances for Ks, and the price is phenomenal.
Brian Dozier ($4,000 vs. Detroit Tigers) – Dozier is no bargain, but he hits righties about as well as he hits lefties, and Justin Verlander is allowing an .807 OPS to right-handed hitters.
Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia) Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke on back-to-back days? Don’t worries Phillies, now you get… what’s that? Madison Bumgarner?! Geez, sorry guys. But, I am not going to apologize for auto-picking Bumgarner for my lineup no matter the price. People can try to be contrarian, but it’s only going to bite them in the end.
Prince Fielder ($3,500 vs. San Diego)– How is he only $3,500? Ian Kennedy is giving up home runs as if it’s his goal in life, and the Rangers have one of the higher projected run totals tonight. There really isn’t much more to say here, as Fielder is a near must-start.
Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia) Just keeping it simple by using the best pitcher against the worst lineup in a great ballpark. I’ve had a lot of positive reinforcement going that way this week – why stop?
Mitch Moreland ($2,900 vs. San Diego) A home matchup against Ian Kennedy, is that something that you might be interested in?
Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia)– There’s just nothing I can find to nitpick in this matchup. Bumgarner’s season numbers are maybe a little disappointing, but most of the damage came on the road early in the season. He had sub-3.00 ERAs in May and June. The Phillies? Hey, at least they’ve scored more runs than theWhite Sox and Mets.
Adam Jones ($3,300 vs. Washington) – Against RHP Jones
is the anti-Votto, but that OBP jumps up to .375 when he faces a left-handed pitcher. Jones used to seem like the next big thing, but he’s turned into a boringly consistent player. I like boring when it’s this good.
AJ Pierzynski ($3,400 at Colorado) and Kendall Graveman ($5,400 at Cleveland)
Difficult night, a typical Friday. I’m going bang for the buck to get some expensive hitters in, so it’s Noah Syndergaard ($8,400 vs. Arizona) and “I Dread Jedd” Gyorko ($2200 at Texas). Let the chips fall.
Madison Bumgarner ($11,900 vs. Philadelphia) and Dee Gordon
Hitters…loading up on the Rockies and Braves at home. 3B Nolan Arenado ($5,100 vs. Atlanta) my must have, he’s going to Hale tonight!
Ervin Santana ($7,600 versus Detroit) I know, crazy, but Tigers without Miggy isn’t the same offensive team. And Santana is cheap, coming off an excellent win in his first game back from suspension. I didn’t like the matchups and/or prices of the big guys, so a little bottomfishing.
Bryce Harper ($5,000 versus Baltimore) The reason to bet on Santana is to also bet on guys like Harper (Tillman) and Edwin Encarnacion (Duffy) in good matchups.
How, if it all, has playing DFS helped or harmed your seasonal game play?
Jeff Erickson, www.rotowire.com, @Jeff_Erickson
Helped: I was able to jump on Jimmy Paredes right away by noticing how Buck Showalter was using him, adding him in both Tout Wars and in the XFL. While his plate discipline is rough, he’s still been worth a lot, especially in Tout Wars where I was hurting up the middle. In only leagues, a guy playing nearly every day, hitting in an advantageous spot in the lineup in a good park to hit off the waiver wire is gold.
Hurt: I’ve become so interested in DFS that I have missed a few opportunities to act in my season-long leagues, most often in Yahoo’s Friends & Family league, where we have First-Come, First-Serve pickups and daily moves.
Brian Walton, www.mastersball.com, @B_Walton
Given seasonal league rosters are primarily set before daily play begins, I don’t see a significant benefit to the former from the latter. Overall in my life, DFS is another mistress requiring more and more attention and time, which has to be taken from somewhere else. As a result, I have to believe DFS detracts from my seasonal play, which bothers me. I also sense it from peers who seem less responsive about trade inquiries with my guess that DFS is taking more of their time, too. I may be in the minority, but seasonal is still more important to me. If that makes me a dinosaur in a world of impending climate change, so be it.
Phil Hertz, www.baseballhq.com, @prhz50
No harm at all — perhaps because I don’t give DFS the same amount of attention ( and that may explain my level of success in DFS). The game that distracted me from seasonal play was ShandlerPark, but alas that is no more.
Scott Swanay, www.fantasybaseballsherpa.com, @Fantasy_Sherpa
It’s helped marginally by making me pay more attention to day-to-day transactions. My better half would argue that’s not a good thing . . .
Gene McCaffrey, www.wiseguys.com, @gene2323
DFS has hurt me a little in roto, but I suspected that DFS would take over my life and went out of my way to avoid high-maintainance roto teams this year. I can’t do that completely, and I have missed a few “what are the implications of this injury?” FAAB matters. There are so many, you know? I’m going to play less roto next year. The injuries have always been a pain in the ass but the last few years are just ridiculous. Almost every day someone goes down, often two a day. It’s not fun. DFS is fun.
Tim McCullough, www.rotoexperts.com, @Tim_RotoExperts
The research that is needed to put together a lineup each week has led to the discovery of some interesting split stats that I’ve put to use in season-long leagues with daily lineup moves. Using that information I’ve benched starting pitchers and hitters against certain teams and started them against others. I’ve also used that research when streaming pitchers, something I need to do in two season long leagues that allow a higher total innings pitched than usual.
Jeff Boggis, www.FantasyFootballEmpire.com, @JeffBoggis
Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) has helped me significantly on the way that I evaluate players for roster management, players to drop/add, and trades. DFS requires league managers to look at players via different sample sizes that you may not necessarily use in seasonal game play. In DFS formats, I like to use both the last 7 days and last 14 days of statistics when evaluating players to see who’s on a hot streak, who’s fading, and identifying bargains to play that evening. For example, over the past 7 days, J.D. Martinez (OF – DET) is the highest ranked player with 4 HRs and 10 RBIs, and FanDuel has raised his salary over the past month accordingly. But Gerardo Parra (OF – MIL) is the 2ndhighest ranked player over the past 7 days with 3 HRs and 5 RBIs, could still be at a much lower price compared to his 7 days stats. These are the types of players that I like to use not only in DFS contests, but also for roster management, players to drop/add, and trades in seasonal game play.
Craig Mish, www.craigmish.com, @CraigMish
Playing DFS more intensely has probably helped me in season long but it’s marginal. In general I am aware of rosters, adds, drops but I suppose the intricacies of how Managers set lineups has helped me a bit. In the past I didn’t pay enough attention to that and I can gauge more value in a player thanks to DFS and where he is in his MLB lineup.
Jake Ciely, www.rotoexperts.com, @allinkid
It hasn’t harmed my seasonal play, but it has made me participate in less leagues. Isn’t that the case every year? We always promise to cut back and then never do. However, with DFS being infinitely easier in juggling multiple teams, I actually cut back on seasonal this year. I kept my requirements to three expert leagues and one home league, which is about 1/3 to 1/4 of what I normally do. A large part has to do with my uncanny injury luck… hence the fan-created #ICCU tag on Twitter (I Ciely Curse U). It’s frustrating to lose numerous valuable players to the DL in seasonal, and it creates a luck factor that baseball is supposed to have less of due to the long season. It’s also hard to maintain interest in leagues that don’t involve money (err… prizes) or have eight guys manning the DL roster. In DFS, your interest is renewed daily, and it’s why I’ve cut back on seasonal.
Paul Sporer, www,fangraphs.com, @sporer
It’s helped as I’m more in-tune with how players are doing RIGHT now as opposed to generally. Of course, even before DFS, I followed the game day-in and day-out and consistently looked at every boxscore everyday, but you really remember how players are performing when you DFS them. I think it’s helped me find some better waiver finds for my season long. If I have a guy in DFS, chances are I’ll try to check out at least 1-2 ABs and thus I feel I have a better handle on them and sooner.
Todd Zola, www.mastersball.com, @ToddZola
I play in a bunch of high stakes NFBC leagues and have noticed the hot-button players in DFS often go for more FAAB units so I know to bid a little more if the player was a DFS darling. In addition, following the transactions on a daily basis, which is necessary to identify lower owned DFS candidates lessens the amount of work I need to do on Sunday (NFBC FAAB day) since I’ve already done the legwork. Finally, with all the great DFS analysts out there, it has helped getting additional opinions and analysis on some players before I invest.
On the other hand, I wrote about this on Fantasy Alarm, the DFS grind has contributed to my overall malaise at times, feeling burned out and neglecting my seasonal squads, as well as not putting maximum effort into my DFS play.
The objective of a cash game like the Tout Wars Challenge is to assimilate a safe roster, as opposed to taking some chances to win a tournament. Sometimes it turns out your safe lineup hits on all cylinders and would have fared very well in a couple of tournaments played simultaneously. Tuesday night was bittersweet for the top points scorer in the Tout Wars 50/50 Challenge. Did I mention that was me?
One of the keys to DFS is having “closer mentality.” Whether it’s bouncing back from a rough losing streak or not letting something like the above get to you, successful DFS players keep an even keel.
The only other Tout in the top-ten was Andrea LaMont as she tied for tenth. A total of six Touts placed in the 45 money spots, meaning it was another very successful night for the fans of the Touts.
My contest-leading lineup, displayed below, featured Corey Kluber and his moderate 15 percent usage rate. Kluber was a bit of a risk, facing the hit-or-miss Houston Astros but I liked the whiff potential and took the chance. Alex Gordon made all the difference on the hitting ledger as he was only three percent owned. Gordon was attractive since he’s been hitting in the two-hole while Mike Moustakas is away from the team and held the platoon edge over Matt Andriese. At only $2500, he was a punt play with benefits.
Be sure to follow along on Friday for the second leg of Period 4 in Tout Daily. Another three tickets to the grand finale are on the line and the different strategies the Touts are using to position themselves for the invite are quite interesting.