Category: Article

Down to the Wire: The Tout Wars AL Pennant Race

Joe Sheehan, down many points but with a glint of hope, wrote:

What has to go right for you to win?

 I have to, at minimum, steal points from Larry where I’m directly behind him — WHIP (I trail by .012) and runs (I trail by 19). That means getting a couple of starts from Felix Hernandez, it means maximizing playing time that last week. Honestly, I need Larry to have another bad week, and there aren’t that many places for him to lose points with a week to go.

 What could go wrong that would cause you to lose?

 Lack of save opportunities. I can make up ground if Frieri, Balfour and Rivera can finish big.

Larry Schechter wasn’t taking anything for granted:

As I write this, I’m ahead by 12 points with 11 days to go. Not much has to go right for me to win, I just need to avoid an epic collapse. It’s not over, because Joe Sheehan (and possibly even Wolf/Colton) theoretically could win. There are enough points they can gain, and I can lose, in the various categories, that it could happen. But it’s highly unlikely, almost everything would have to be great for one of them and everything awful for me, in almost every category, for the last 11 days.

But being a Red Sox fan, and having watched their collapse two September’s ago, I’m not celebrating anything yet.

Doubt Wars NL! You liked them!

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Top 10 11 Most Coveted Tout Wars Buys

Kyle Lohse ($3): He signed with the Brewers the day after the Tout Wars draft, explaining his low price. He could have gone to the AL and would have been lost. Sixteen Doubt Warriors pounced, once the uncertainty passed. GOOD BUY

Julio Teheran ($9): Ten Doubt Warriors decided that Teheran would take the next step forward, and he did. HIT

Chris Nelson ($4): Ten teams didn’t discount Nelson’s strong BABIP in 2012, and suffered when the cheap infielder failed to repeat. BUST

Matt Harvey ($13): He didn’t have to break out the way he did, but for the first four months of the season he was the best pitcher in the NL, and nine Doubt Warriors had him on their team. HIT

Adam LaRoche ($18): Tout Warriors figured on some regression from LaRoche’s career year in 2012, and nine Doubters figured they’d gone to far. In fact, they hadn’t gone far enough. BUST

Devin Mesoraco ($5): A cheap catcher with upside is irresistible, for eight Doubt Warriors at least. Mesoraco improved on his 2012, but not enough to really help. MEH.

Yasmani Grandal ($3): Beginning the year on the suspended list earns a discount, and seven Doubters saw Grandal as a cheap catcher play. What they got was cheapness, but not much else before he broke down for the year. Too cheap to bust, but decidedly MEH.

Shelby Miller ($7): Seven Doubt Warriors pounced on Miller, who was a prime starting breakout pitcher at a fair price. He didn’t disappoint in the first half, but hasn’t maintained the same level in the second, but has still been a solid choice. HIT

Trevor Rosenthal ($3): Seven teams made Rosenthal a lottery ticket to close in St. Louis. He’s been a solid setup guy, though surprisingly hittable. MEH.

Jedd Gyorko ($13): The power wasn’t a surprise, but neither were the struggles with the BA. He’s had a promising rookie year, but didn’t earn his seven Doubt owners any profits. MEH

Donovan Solano ($3): Another cheap middle infield play, seven Doubt teams chose Solano, who was getting started but got hurt and lost his job for a time. MEH

Doubt Wars Mixed! Looking backward.

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Top 10 12 Most Coveted Tout Wars Mixed Buys

Josh Johnson ($9): Thirteen teams jumped on the Josh Johnson bandwagon for less than a dime, and paid the price. BUST

Salvador Perez ($11): Thirteen teams thought Salvador Perez would beat expectations, but he has slowly risen to meet them. MEH

Ernesto Frieri ($8): Theoretically supplanted out of spring training, nine teams saw in Frieri’s low price and Madson’s fragility the makings of a bargain. Instead they got par support and a little agita. MEH

Julio Teheran ($6): Nine teams said the Tout Price was too low, and have been rewarded solidly by Teheran’s emergence. HIT

Casey Janssen ($7): More closer indecision led to eight teams jumping on Janssen, and scoring big for less. HIT

Jon Lester ($13): Eight teams had a feeling about Lester, call it an itch they weren’t able to scratch. MEH

Emilio Bonifacio ($7): Any of the eight teams in mixed leagues that snatched up this bargain-priced Bonifacio would have bailed long ago, though since his trade to Kansas City he’s run as was hoped and is starting to approach expectations for the year as a whole. BUST MEH

Mike Moustakas ($10): The low batting average last year scared down his Tout Wars price, and those who seized on the fire of his power potential in Doubt Wars got burned. BUST

Paul Konerko ($14): Sometimes a player looks like he’ll never get old, and eight teams see a falling price and buy. In this case, appearances were deceiving. BUST

Alcides Escobar ($7): Inexpensive middle infielders were valued, and eight teams took a chance on Escobar, whose 2012 BA was a big surprise. This year there was a correction. BUST

Domonic Brown ($7): A hot spring was the tip off and eight Doubt Wars teams jumped. While he’s missed time because of injuries, and he started slowly, when he’s been hot he’s been one of the top power hitters in the National League. BIG HIT

Matt Harvey ($8): He was consistently the best pitcher in the National League for the first four months of the season, delighting his eight Doubt Wars Mixed owners. GIANT HIT

Doubt Wars AL! Who did you love?

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The Top 10 Most Coveted AL Tout Buys

Josh Johnson ($13): Twelve teams spent $13 on Johnson, making him the player taken most by far. He’s earned -$6 thus far. BUST

Jackie Bradley ($1): Ten teams spent a buck on Bradley, who was taken in the reserves in Tout AL. In large part this was a function of the news that Bradley had earned a roster spot in Boston after the Tout auction was over. At this price he was worth the flyer, even though he didn’t pan out. MEH

JJ Hardy ($12): Nine teams thought Hardy’s price, the same as he earned in 2012, was too low. And they were right. NICE

Yu Darvish ($25): Nine teams agreed with Tout Wars that Darvish would earn twice what he earned in 2012, and they were right. BOLD MEH.

Casey Janssen ($10): Eight teams thought the unproven closer was worth a shot, and they were right. Janssen has been just as successful this year as last, and was a bargain. VERY NICE.

Mike Trout ($41): Eight teams bought Mike Trout at a very healthy price, and while any profits will be slight, he’s earned just about every cent already. BOLD MEH

Aaron Hicks ($7): A nice spring and little competition for a job made seven teams pick up Aaron Hicks, but he’s disappointed them as well as Twins fans. BUST

Jed Lowrie ($8): There was some confusion about how the playing time would shake out in Oakland, and Lowrie’s price tumbled. Not unsurprisingly he’s played pretty much full time, and performed as he did last year in a season truncated by injury. NICE

Josh Hamilton ($26): He went for 20 percent less in Tout than he earned in 2012, and seven teams bought him expecting a lot more than he gave. Turns out the naysayers didn’t nay loudly enough. BIG BUST

The following players were claimed by six teams.

Chris Iannetta ($7): Tons of walks, but disappointing power and a bad BA make him a BUST.

Dayan Viciedo ($14): He was retooling his stroke in spring training, and while he’s added some walks and trimmed some strikeouts, most notable is the power drop. Maybe next year. MEH

Jose Altuve ($21): Doubt Warriors were perhaps hoping for improvement from the young speedster, but he’s put up nearly identical numbers to last year. MEH

Lance Berkman ($12): Tout Warriors thought Berkman could beat father time, and Doubt warriors thought they could beat Tout warriors. BUST

Leonys Martin ($10): Questions about playing time and how his stolen base speed would translate to the big leagues kept his price down. The steals have come and he’s proved a great bargain. VERY NICE

Wil Myers ($7): It was hoped that when he was called up in June he would hit, and he has. NICE

Do breakouts help?

I just posted a story on the Askrotoman.com blog called The Overachievers (or are they?): What to expect from the first half’s most surprising hitters. It occurs to me that maybe we would learn something by looking at who drafted the year’s monster offensive profit generators and see where they are in the standings:

The Top 12 Hitters By Profit, Their Cost, The Drafting Team, Its Place In The Standings

Jean Segura, 15, Steve Gardner, 4th
Chris Davis, 20, Wolf/Colton, 2nd
Josh Donaldson, 10, Jason Collette, 7th
Nate McLouth, 3, Andy Behrens, 11th
Everth Cabrera, 17, Scott Wilderman, 12th
Daniel Nava, R, Larry Schechter, 1st
Manny Machado, 14, Joe Sheehan, 4th
Domonic Brown, 15, Phil Hertz, 3rd
Matt Carpenter, 14, Steve Gardner, 4th
James Loney, 7, Wolf Colton, 2nd
Yasiel Puig, 1, Lenny Melnick, 10th
Carlos Gomez, 25, Tristan Cockcroft, 1st

One thing for sure is that it’s good to have two of these guys.

A Tout Wars Mixed Auction Trade (an insider’s opinion): June 24, 2013

puig_yasiel640By Paul Singman

Here’s the deal:

Seth Tractman gets:
Yasiel Puig LAD from Paul Singman
Edward Muijica STL from Paul Singman
A.J. Burnett (DL) PIT from Paul Singman

Paul Singman gets:
Gio Gonzalez WSH from Seth Tractman
Troy Tulowitzki (DL) from Seth tractman

Why?

Because why not? As a participating member of this deal, of course I think that the effects are huge. But even evaluating objectively, you can’t ignore the number of impact players involved, who also happen be some of the most polarizing names in the game. Quite easily this trade could end up a major win for either Seth or myself, given all of the risk involved.

On the surface I (Singman) get an upgrade to my rotation in Gio Gonzalez. Even though I am strong in ERA and WHIP (13 points in each), my two weakest categories are wins and strikeouts (8 points in each). Adding Gio should hopefully address both of those underbellies.

In the short term, Tractman gets a hitting upgrade in the form of Cuban wunderkind Yasiel Puig. When you render Vin Scully speechless, you know you’ve done something significant. Puig should help Seth remain competitive in the fierce home run battle and also boost his 4-point standing in steals. This short-term upgrade might come at a long-term expense though, as it cost Seth one of the premier hitters in the game (when healthy) in Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo is, of course, on the shelf for a month with a broken rib. But whether two months of Tulowitzki will be more valuable than three of Puig is a question worth asking. The answer mostly depends on where you fall on the pessimist vs. optimist spectrum regarding Puig.

Lastly the deal also gives Tractman arguably the most impressive closer this year in Edward Mujica. He went from two closers to zero when Brandon League and Jim Henderson lost their jobs, and Mujica should help him tread water in the saves category, where he currently ranks sixth. I had no problem relieving myself of a closer, given I had three at the time (since then I also traded Jim Johnson in a separate deal) and hold a commanding 20 save lead over Fred Zinkie, who is second in the category.

Reality?

There are many perspectives through which to view this deal. One is to view it in terms of the healthy vs. injured players. Regarding the healthy, Puig and Mujica for Gio favors Seth, while Tulo for Burnett is a monstrous win for me. Although it will be at least a month before I can reap the benefits. In terms of draft day dollars it’s quite lopsided; I’m trading a total of $4 while for Seth it’s $47. This is because Puig and Mujica were both fortuitous waiver pickups, not auction bought. It took 19 well-spent dollars to land Mujica, and a lucky $1 bid placed Puig on the team the week before his call-up and subsequent exploits.

The bottom line, though, is that I was able to acquire two premium players in this deal, and premium players are worth taking chances on in mixed formats. Time will tell if it will be true in this case.

Good afternoon, Mr. Phelps

Lawr Michaels slips down into the bottomless rabbit hole of second guessingDavid-Phelps after releasing David Phelps in two leagues, including Tout AL, just before Phelps magical rise into the Yankee rotation.