Tout Wars Post Season Analysis Links

Rudy Gamble, on finishing second in Tout Wars Mixed Draft.

Fred Zinkie, on winning Tout Wars Mixed Auction

Zach Steinhorn, on falling short in Tout Wars Mixed Auction.

Mike Gianella, on winning Tout Wars NL.

Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre’s Flags Fly Forever podcast, on Tout NL. Fred Zinkie is on this show, too.

Ray Flowers, on finishing in the middle of the pack in Tout Wars Mixed Auction.

Peter Kreutzer, on finishing last in Tout Wars NL.

Meet Your Tout Wars Champions of 2015!

Baseball-Glove-w-ballTOUT WARS AL: Chris Liss

TOUT WARS NL: Mike Gianella

TOUT WARS MIX DRAFT: Adam Ronis

TOUT WARS MIX AUCTION: Fred Zinkie

TOUT WARS X: Bret Sayre

TOUT WARS DAILY: Charlie Wiegert

The league names link to the final standings.

Congratulations all! See you in March!

The Tout Wars Races: Checking In

What's at stake? An item on Foley's menu in March, for one. (click to enlarge)
What’s at stake? An item on Foley’s menu in March, for one. (click to enlarge)

There are three days left in the season. Three games left for each major league team, though a massive storm plus a possible hurricane in the east may affect games in Baltimore (versus Yankees), Philadelphia (versus Miami) and New York (versus Washington). None of these series will matter in determining the playoffs, so rainouts on Sunday (or Saturday and Sunday) may not be rescheduled.

How are things looking in Tout Wars? Let’s start with the easy ones.

AL: Chris Liss leads Mike Podhorzer by 8.5 points. Liss’s volatility index gives him a range of 86-97 points. Podhorzer could finish with 79-88. The door is not completely shut, but everything has to go right for Podhorzer and completely wrong for Liss.

NL: Mike Gianella leads Tristan Cockcroft by 11 points. Gianella range is 87-95.5, while Cockcroft’s is 75-86. There is virtually no chance that Cockcroft can make up enough ground, no matter how badly Gianella’s team goes.

Mix Auction: Fred Zinkie leads Scott Swanay by 4 points, and Tim Heaney by 6. It’s good be Zinkie, for sure, but there are still lots of points in play. Zinkie has already gained three points in homers this week, but lost them in Runs, OBP, ERA and Saves, and is tied in Runs and Saves. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played here.

Mix Draft: Adam Ronis is 2 points ahead of Rudy Gamble, who is 3.5 points ahead of Grey Albright. Rudy has gained five points this week, which means he could give back five easily enough. He’s in a three-way tie in wins, with one ahead and one behind. One of the guys he’s tied with is Ronis. Crazy things could happen there. Gamble has five starts over the weekend, while Ronis has just two. There is also a four-way tie in saves. Gamble has Tolleson, Feliz and Robbie Ross(who has yet to get a save and wasn’t listed in the intial post), McLeod has Axford, Vizcaino, and Jepsen, Kessenich lost Huston Street and is left with Hector Rondon, and Paul Sporer has Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Over three games, pretty much anything can happen in saves. Plus there are a mess of possibilities in ERA and Ratio. Keep your eye on this one folks! That said, Grey Albright doesn’t have much headroom, especially since Gamble and Ronis each stand to either gain or lose in the categories in which they’re tied, so it’s hard to see them both falling. Which makes Grey something of a spoiler, especially since he’s right behind Ronis in ERA and right behind Gamble in strikeouts, with his five red hot starters going.

The Final FAAB. Week 26 FAAB Comments from Mastersball and Baseball Prospectus.

It’s all in the headline. Mastersball.com has published their comments about the final week FAAB moves in Tout Wars. You can read it here.

At this point, it is highly probable that Mike Gianella will win Tout NL and Chris Liss will win Tout AL. But the mixed leagues both have compelling three man races for the top. Best of luck to Adam Ronis, Gray Albright and Rudy Gamble in the Mixed Draft league, and Fred Zinkie, Tim Heaney and Scott Swanay in mixed auction.

This is your time!

Mike Gianella’s FAAB comments are posted on Tuesday morning. That is his time.

 

Chris Liss is a winner, FakeTeams.com declares!

Screenshot 2015-09-27 10.05.29Scoby Snacks, at FakeTeams.com, has posted a story called How Chris Liss Ran Away With AL Tout Wars.

Liss has a seven point lead over Mike Podhorzer today, with eight days left in the season, so Snacks is almost surely right. As Podhorzer noted yesterday, he has a lot of ground to make up, but he does have ways to do it. So let’s wait and see.

In the meantime, you can read Snacks’ article, which errs in one important detail. While Liss didn’t spend big bucks in FAAB during the year, he did make some big bids. When he bought Carlos Correa for a buck, he bid $34. Tout’s Vickrey FAAB bidding reduced it to $1 because no one else bid.

While he acquired Shawn Tolleson for $1 on April 13th, he actually bid $5. The bid was reduced to $1 because no one else bid.

Liss’s bidding in both cases was especially impressive when you look at the timeline. Correa wasn’t called up to the majors until five weeks after Liss bought him, and Tolleson didn’t earn a save until five weeks after Liss bought him.

I took a closer look at the standings and roughly added up the close points up and down for each player. Call this the volatility index.

Liss has five points to gain and nine and a half to lose. His range is 95.5 to 81.

Podhorzer has eight and a half points to gain, and eight points to lose. His range is 92 to 75.5.

Liss is in the driver’s seat, for sure, but there is a lot of overlap there.

The Pennant Races: Tout Wars AL

Over the next few days we’ll take a look at the state of the pennant races  around Tout Wars. 

The top two spots in Tout AL are held by former Tout Mixed Auction champions, Chris Liss and Mike Podhorzer. Both think that Liss’s 10.5 point lead is probably safe. Here are the standings through Friday night’s games (if you want to dig deeper into the team’s rosters and transactions, click here):

Screenshot 2015-09-26 15.50.35

But both also know that Mike has a chance. Mike says:

My hitters need to actually be in the lineup and reverse my team’s second half offensive slide. Also, it would be wonderful if my starting pitcher’s teams scored some runs for them so they could earn wins. As I type this, just three wins gains me four points! A big week of saves would also be huge. With two closers, I have the potential to gain a couple of points in the category as well. It’s going to be a challenge to take back the lead for sure, but there still remains a sliver of a chance. I think Liss’ preemptive pickup of Correa was clearly the move of the season!

Liss picked up Carlos Correa for $1, reduced by Vickrey from $34. That’s right, nobody else bid. Liss had to bide his time, Correa wasn’t called up the Houston until a month later, but he has been well worth the wait. Note that on the day Liss bought Correa he was in second place, a few points behind Podhorzer. On the day Liss was finally able to promote him, he was a few points ahead of Podhorzer. Their standings had reversed. Liss hopes it stays that way.

My team needs simply not to blow it. Pitchers keep their ERA under 4.5, WHIP under 1.4, hitters show up and be okay. Hopefully Mike’s team takes the week off, just so I don’t have to sweat it.

We’ll see.

Who Is Winning Tout Wars? An Overview

With a month left in the season we’ve crowned one Tout Wars Champion for 2015: Charlie Wiegert is Tout Wars Daily champion. But what about the other leagues? While you can alway check in on the standings and transactions by using the links in the right nav at toutwars.com, at this point it might be a good time to check in on the pennant races.

TOUT WARS AL

Chris Liss is having a classic Liss season, young pitching, lots of hitting, lots of risk, and is seven points ahead of Jeff Erickson and nine points ahead of Mike Podhorzer. The three have bubbled up and down around the top of the standings all season, but Liss has benefited from Chris Davis’s spectacular season, and Carlos Correa’s emergence after being called up earlier in the year. There are plenty of points in play for all three teams, up and down, for this to turn any which way at any time, but Liss is clearly the fave.

Screenshot 2015-09-06 15.02.22

TOUT WARS NL

Mike Gianella is seven points ahead of standing three-time champ Tristan Cockcroft, but just two weeks ago his edge was only two points. For Cockcroft, the problem has been a freefalling pitching staff, which has won just a single game in the last 13 days, allowing Gianella to pass him. These teams have lots of points in play, too, so while you have to prefer to have the lead, there is no sitting comfortably at this point. Still, Gianella has to appreciate that he was the best team in the first half and has been the best team in the second half. Now he just has to bring it home.

Screenshot 2015-09-06 15.12.23

TOUT WARS MIXED AUCTION

At the halfway mark on the season Zach Steinhorn had a commanding lead, but that was before Fred Zinkie went to work. Zinkie was in 12th place on June 28, 39.5 points behind Steinhorn. From that point to the August 31 trading deadline he made 19 trades, and has taken a slim lead ahead of Scott Swanay and Steinhorn. Swanay was in 10th place on June 28th, and has nearly matched Zinkie in the second half. Meanwhile, Tim Heaney is just five points behind Zinkie, in fourth place. There’s a lot of pennant race to come in this one.

Screenshot 2015-09-06 15.21.40

TOUT WARS MIXED DRAFT

Adam Ronis and Paul Greco have been near the top of the standings all year long, but their weak second half performances have given Rudy Gamble a chance to open up some space ahead of them and Eno Sarris (whose had the best second half of them all). Gambles position is pretty strong, but he’s vulnerable in Wins and the pitching qualitatives,

Screenshot 2015-09-06 15.24.53

TOUT WARS X

Bret Sayre entered the last four-week contest 14.5 points ahead of Patrick Mayo and 31 points ahead of Doug Anderson. As we approach the halfway point, Sayre is 15 points behind Mayo, who has moved into a tiny lead. What looked like it might be a blowout has ended up a a nail-biter, if you’re Sayre and Mayo.

Screenshot 2015-09-06 15.34.09

 

Four Tout Leagues and their June 22 FAAB Reports!

mastersballlogoMastersball’s crew digests and displays this week’s moves, with nods to Chris Parmelee, Derek Deitrich, Kyle Schwarber, and Matt Wisler.

Mike Gianella has an excellent and informative look at the Tout NL FAAB pool, where the biggest buys came from last year, and who has made the best gains this year, at baseballprospectus.com.