This Week’s (May 12) Transactions from Mastersball.com!

Big bidders:

NL: Kreutzer: $8, reduced to $5 for Eric Campbell, $8, reduced to $1 for Chase Anderson. Kreutzer wrote about his moves here.

AL: Shandler: $36, reduced to $38 for Roughned Odor.

Mix Auc: Heaney: $17, tied with DiFino for Drew Pomeranz.
Davitt: $19, reduced to $15 for Tyler Lyons.

Mix Draft: Sarris: $11, reduced to $10 for Bryan Shaw.
Ambrosius: $10, essentially tied with Charlie Wiegert’s $9 bid (who also bid $9 on Bryan Shaw), for Juan Francisco.

Mastersball.com has compiled all the action, with commentaries. Read it here!

April Earnings Report, AL and NL Leagues

Rotoman published his April earnings report for 5×5 only leagues using Batting Average, then realized that there really should be one for Tout Wars followers that includes OBP earnings.

Here it is. The pitching sheets are identical. The hitting sheet includes an OBP column and a column calculating the difference.

Clearly OBP types like Votto and Santana and Choo, who are off to weak starts this year, retain a bigger percentage of their value because of their ability to take walks. Will that mean that other owners will covet them despite their issues?

League Links Live!

There are live links now to each of the league’s standings, transactions and stats in the right nav.

If you want to see what this week’s FAAB results are you can check the View Bidmeister Results item in the Transaction Logs menu at 12:01 am Monday morning.

Hypothetically Speaking 2013: Tout Wars Mixed Auction

On draft day 2013, Paul Singman bought the best team in Tout Wars Mixed Auction. If the league played by Draft and Hold rules, Singman would have won by 18 points over David Gonos.

Paul bought 54 hitting points, third best in the league.

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And he bought the best pitching staff, trailed by just a few points by eventual champion Fred Zinkie, who bought an overwhelming number of saves.

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Based on the draft day rosters, Singman won going away. But that isn’t what happened.

Screenshot 2014-02-24 15.16.52By the hypothetical measures Singman had a great auction, followed by a terrible season. His moves during the year, as well as the moves of those he was playing against, hurt his team badly, to the tune of -52 points!

I asked Paul what went wrong and he wrote back:

“- I drafted Julio Teheran, and then made a bone-headed decision to drop him after about five starts when his ERA was in the 5.00s. He was pretty good after that.

– Danny Espinosa and Mike Moustakas were big disappointments, and I had them in my starting lineup for longer than other struggling players. (Ed. note: Since he drafted them this wouldn’t hurt his hypotheticals unless they performed better after he dropped them.)

– I started Justin Grimm and Erasmo Ramirez, and probably streamed a couple other pitchers that got lit up in a couple starts.

– Had part-time players like Andy Dirks and Jarrod Dyson in my lineup later in the season, which hurt counting stats some.

– Lastly, it didn’t help that Jayson Werth and AJ Burnett had tremendous finishes to the season, after I traded them.”

My hunch, without delving into this deeper, is that the Werth and Burnett trades hurt him a lot, especially since he got back Gio Gonzalez, who had a mediocre second half. Of course, dropping Teheran was a loss, too, a decision that seemed totally reasonable at the time, but hurt big in retrospect.

What also hurt his team was dealing waiver-wire pickup Yasiel Puig, but that didn’t influence his draft-day lineup. The bottom line is that when confronted with a series of decisions, many of which don’t have obvious answers, it’s possible to make a lot of good decisions (call that a hot streak) or a lot of bad ones (certainly a losing streak). Usually we make some of each and end up like most teams, not much helping or hurting our teams after the auction. (This chart shows how many points each team had on Draft Day, at Season’s End, and what the change was.)

Screenshot 2014-02-24 22.44.39He was also hurt because teams like Eric Mack’s made spectacular buys, like Koji Uehara, that transformed the saves category. Of course Eric did a lot of other things right, as well, and gained 32 points, to climb from 14th place to fifth.

The main point is that, while the auction/draft is the most important day of the year, plenty that happens afterwards affects the final standings. Thus did Fred Zinkie move from third to first, turning a surfeit of saves into winning wheels. His and Eric’s happy tales are the counter to Paul Singman’s nightmare.

OBP versus BA: What does it mean?

Of the 633 players who had at bats last year (not counting pitchers):

Five earned $10 or more under OBP rules than Batting Average.

33 earned $5 or more under OBP rules than BA.

On the negative side, 28 lost $5 or more under OBP rules than BA.

Clearly, values are going to shift, especially for the hitters with especially high and low walk rates, but they will also much better reflect a hitter’s very real baseball skills. That is, his ability to take a walk is a reason hitters like Dan Uggla and Josh Willingham received as many at bats last year as they did. By getting on base a fair amount, they continued to have value even when they weren’t hitting very successfully. It is this aspect of the game that makes OBP a more valuable category than BA.

For the complete list in a spreadsheet visit RotomansGuide.com.

 

 

The Tout Wars Leaderboard Has Been Updated!

All Time Top 10 Earners (these are imaginary dollars, based on a $100 buy in, standard roto payout to top four or five places)

Larry Schechter 9 years $3,020
Mike Lombardo 5 years $1,579
Jason Grey 11 years $1,380
Fred Zinkie 3 years $1,345
Ron Shandler 16 years $1,146
John Coleman 5 years $849
Sam Walker 6 years $840
Trace Wood 6 years $840
Tristan Cockcroft 7 years $713

See the whole list here.

Your 2013 Doubt Wars Champions! (beta)

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Each of the winners will receive: A package of Ron Shandler’s 2014 Baseball Forecaster, the 2014 Mastersball Platinum Package , Rotoman’s 2014 Fantasy Baseball Guide, the 2014 Rotowire Baseball Guide and the 2014 Patton $ Software and Data.

UPDATED: Oct. 5, 2013 at 6pm, with additional teams in the spreadsheet, and the NL champ’s name spelled correctly. UPDATED January 17, 2014 Spelled AL Civilian Champ’s first name correctly.

DOUBT WARS AL: Glenn Colton/Rick Wolf.
Civilian Champ: Andrew Pappas.
Runners Up: Eugene Freedman, Noah Hirsch

DOUBT WARS MIXED: Tim George
Pro Champ: Paul Singman
Runners Up: Jon Hrobuchek, Brent Crossman

DOUBT WARS NL: Jeffrey Pelletier
Pro Champ: Tristan Cockcroft, Todd Zola
Runners Up: Scott Katz, Justin Dowling

Tristan Cockcroft finished second to Todd Zola in the Draft Day Standings for Tout Wars, but his strong ERA and WHIP elevated him past Todd in Doubt Wars. Tristan, however, finished 200 innings short of the Tout Wars minimum. We didn’t anticipate that in Doubt Wars, but it seems less an issue for a Pro team than a Civilian team. Tristan certainly wasn’t gaming Doubt Wars.

Here are the standings for each league (click to enlarge):

DOUBT WARS AL

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DOUBT WARS MIXED

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DOUBT WARS NL

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If you would like to download the spreadsheet compiling the final standings, please click here.

Doubt Wars NL! You liked them!

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Top 10 11 Most Coveted Tout Wars Buys

Kyle Lohse ($3): He signed with the Brewers the day after the Tout Wars draft, explaining his low price. He could have gone to the AL and would have been lost. Sixteen Doubt Warriors pounced, once the uncertainty passed. GOOD BUY

Julio Teheran ($9): Ten Doubt Warriors decided that Teheran would take the next step forward, and he did. HIT

Chris Nelson ($4): Ten teams didn’t discount Nelson’s strong BABIP in 2012, and suffered when the cheap infielder failed to repeat. BUST

Matt Harvey ($13): He didn’t have to break out the way he did, but for the first four months of the season he was the best pitcher in the NL, and nine Doubt Warriors had him on their team. HIT

Adam LaRoche ($18): Tout Warriors figured on some regression from LaRoche’s career year in 2012, and nine Doubters figured they’d gone to far. In fact, they hadn’t gone far enough. BUST

Devin Mesoraco ($5): A cheap catcher with upside is irresistible, for eight Doubt Warriors at least. Mesoraco improved on his 2012, but not enough to really help. MEH.

Yasmani Grandal ($3): Beginning the year on the suspended list earns a discount, and seven Doubters saw Grandal as a cheap catcher play. What they got was cheapness, but not much else before he broke down for the year. Too cheap to bust, but decidedly MEH.

Shelby Miller ($7): Seven Doubt Warriors pounced on Miller, who was a prime starting breakout pitcher at a fair price. He didn’t disappoint in the first half, but hasn’t maintained the same level in the second, but has still been a solid choice. HIT

Trevor Rosenthal ($3): Seven teams made Rosenthal a lottery ticket to close in St. Louis. He’s been a solid setup guy, though surprisingly hittable. MEH.

Jedd Gyorko ($13): The power wasn’t a surprise, but neither were the struggles with the BA. He’s had a promising rookie year, but didn’t earn his seven Doubt owners any profits. MEH

Donovan Solano ($3): Another cheap middle infield play, seven Doubt teams chose Solano, who was getting started but got hurt and lost his job for a time. MEH